It’s a pretty busy Thursday on the diamond with 11 games on the card. We do have some early starts on getaway day, including the conclusion of what has been an interesting Dodgers/Brewers series with the Dodgers in an underdog role at some shops against Corbin Burnes. We also have a great pitching matchup in Atlanta with Jacob deGrom as a slight favorite against Max Fried.
Before I get to that, I wanted to mention that our NFL Betting Guide comes out a week from today. I know most of you reading this are subscribers, but if you like the work that we do and believe it will help a friend, family member, coworker or just some random stranger on social media, pass along the benefits of being a VSiN subscriber. This is a huge time of year for us and we appreciate your support.
This is also the last week of the MLB article, as my focus shifts almost fully to football, but I will write up some stuff on the postseason when that rolls around. September baseball is rather tricky to bet with inflated prices on teams in the playoff hunt, call-ups from the minors and other factors, so it’s a good time to make that shift. Hopefully the last week will be a good one.
Yesterday’s Recap
Phillies/Reds: In a getaway day du jour, the Reds won 1-0 over a Phillies team that secured the series with an 11-run outburst on Tuesday. I’ve mentioned his name, but Nick Lodolo is really throwing the ball well for the Reds, who are showing some flashes of why so many people were high on their player development system. As for the Phillies, just one of those days where they got stymied by a good lefty that they hadn’t really seen much.
Cubs/Nationals: One of the reasons why betting baseball over the last six or so weeks of the regular season is tough is because of series like this. The Cubs were -140 or better in every game. Sure, they took two of three, but both wins were in one-run fashion and they had some big bullpen melts throughout the series. It can be really challenging to lay uncomfortable numbers with mediocre teams in big favorite roles, but the alternative is to take an awful underdog playing out the string. Both starters pitched well, but the Cubs eked out a 3-2 win.
Padres/Marlins: Pablo Lopez settled in a little bit after giving up five runs in the first, but he still only had two strikeouts and seven whiffs in his 4.2 innings of work. Something is seriously wrong here. The velo and spin rates look fine, but there is something seriously off about the quality of his stuff and his command. He has allowed 24 runs on 38 hits in his last five starts, but he looked iffy long before that. The Marlins may want to consider shutting him down and saving some mileage on that arm.
Meanwhile, Mike Clevinger failed to get through five innings despite being staked to that 5-0 lead before throwing a pitch. He had a velo decrease and walked four in his 4.1 innings of work. His ongoing injury concerns always make me worry about a start like this with subpar control and disappointing velocity.
Mets/Braves: If you had told me that the Mets would give up seven runs in a game started by Max Scherzer, I’d assume my bet went down in flames. Fortunately, the Mets scored nine runs on a weird night in Atlanta that featured a rain delay and a first AB HR from call-up Brett Baty. Scherzer wasn’t as sharp with the delay, as he only had 12 whiffs and walked three, but he did have eight strikeouts in 6.1 innings. The big key was that the Mets did score off of Jake Odorizzi with five runs in five innings and then added on late.
Now the Mets can escape with a split with Jacob deGrom on the bump today, which would be huge. Should be a good one with Max Fried for Atlanta.
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