Trey Lance is my favorite breakout player at the quarterback position. He flashed his upside last season when he scored over 20 fantasy points in less than a half, coming in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. The reason he can rack up fantasy points so quickly is because of what he can do with his legs. He will immediately join Lamar Jackson and Hurts as the best rushing QBs. He can be much like Hurts was in 2020, which is a better fantasy QB than real-life QB. The one key difference between those two is their situations. Unlike Hurts, who had a rookie head coach and unproven supporting cast, Lance will have one of the best play-callers in the league, along with a very talented cast around him. Every year, Garoppolo leads or is top-three in passing yards that come after the catch, meaning he makes quick, short throws and the receivers then get to work. Lance could perform in that role, with more deep throws mixed in because he has a cannon of an arm. He has top-five upside and there is a small chance he could be the best QB in fantasy.
Tua Tagovailoa is my favorite QB2 to target this season. First, there is a narrative that Tagovailoa cannot throw a deep ball. Sure, he hasn’t done so much in his NFL career, but last season he finished in the top four in completion percentage and yards per attempt on throws of at least 20 air yards. Now he will have Tyreek Hill, who I believe is the most influential non-QB offensive player, along with Jaylen Waddle. Both typically get drafted as top-20 receivers, which to me seems a little risky. But Tagovailoa goes much later, meaning that you get the receivers’ production baked in, but with much less risk. If those two live up to expectations, Tagovailoa will be a top-12 QB, maybe higher.
Dameon Pierce was not a favorite of mine entering the draft, but that quickly changed when he went to Houston. He fell to a position where he could easily lead all rookies in touches. His competition is Rex Burkhead, and after one breakout game in the preseason, really it was just five touches, Pierce took over that starting gig. Pierce ran strong that night, breaking two tackles with 42 of his 49 yards coming after contact. He backed it up with a strong showing in Week 3 of the preseason, playing over 80 percent of the snaps on the opening drive while rushing six times for 37 yards and a touchdown. Pierce has breakout upside on volume alone, but seeing him run well paired with the rave reviews he’s receiving from training camp, and there’s a lot to like here.
Over the last five weeks of the season, Rashaad Penny led all running backs in rushing yards (671), rushing yards over expectation (272), touchdowns (six), rushes of 10-plus yards (16), yards after contact (486) and rushes reaching 15-plus mph (17) . Best of all, Penny showed that there are no long-lasting effects from his knee injury that sidelined him for so long. While there are still injury concerns, you already get a discount baked into his ADP with him going as an RB3. If Penny stays healthy all year, he is a lock to outlive his draft cost. Even if he misses time, on a per-game basis, he is very likely to outlive his draft cost. Plus, the upside if he stays healthy is that he can finish as a top-15 RB.