It’s becoming increasingly evident that the Dallas Mavericks, now eight days away from the NBA trade deadline, may soon change their mix. Demoralizing defeats and narrow wins over the past weeks have made it clear that the roster, with its over-reliance on Luka Dončić, has become dangerously unbalanced. It was clear after Monday’s narrow win against the league’s second-worst team, where his teammates only narrowly outscored him. It’s been made clear by the Mavericks losing eight of their past 12 games.
That frustration and joylessness of the current stretch spilled out in the questions you all asked me for this mailbag. I tried to temper expectations before the season, saying any season with Dončić should be enjoyed even if the same high of a conference finals run (or better) isn’t replicated. But I get why the team has felt bleak at times. Its current state has been caused by self-inflicted backward steps and an unclear approach for the future. When Dončić was just showing how good he could be, the destination was still far off and the journey could be enjoyed. Now, several years later, what Dončić is doing does not feel rewarded by the team-building approach and results around him.
So, what can be done about it? That’s the gist of these questions. Here’s the best answers I have.
Joe Z. says, “Can you outline what you anticipate the Mavs’ trade deadline plans are?”
I’m going to use this question to describe the two-fold approach front offices generally use in the months leading up to transactional periods like the trade deadline. We’ll get further into the Mavericks’ actual plans in the following questions.
The first is a constantly evolving internal evaluation. It’s an assessment of the players the team has, their relative value to that team as compared to the league at large and their respective contributions to the team’s success or failure. The second is a complicated fact-finding mission conducted by everyone within the front office — although most specifically the lead executives — to understand which players around the league could be available and at what cost.
Sometimes, that plays out directly with phone calls between one lead executive and their counterpart on another team. (In some instances, a lower-level executive might be the lead contact for a certain organization due to a specific relationship they have with another person on that team.) At the same time, front office members have countless conversations with other executives, media members and agents, all designed to build a broad understanding of the league trade chatter in hopes of revealing who might be willing to make which players available for what. In the two hours before games, the baselines of any NBA arena serve as information exchanges.
When I’ve said Dallas almost certainly won’t trade a first-round pick this deadline, it’s not because there’s an official mandate. Nico Harrison didn’t send out an email titled, “MEMO: Tell everyone we aren’t dealing any future firsts this season.” It’s that the Mavericks have done a cost valuation on what those picks, packaged together, could net them in the future as opposed to trading a single one of them now. They have an understanding of what level of player would merit parting with them now. And they understand higher-end players that are potentially available now aren’t the ones who clear that bar for them.
As soon as the draft concludes this June, Dallas can package its 2024, 2026, 2028 and 2030 first-round picks. That’s a substantive and immediate difference from being able to only offer the 2027 and 2029 selections (and potentially the 2025 pick with qualifying language) in any deal right now. It’s why the Mavericks are incentivized to hold onto future first-rounders even if they understand they’re more likely to eventually trade them in multiple smaller deals rather than a single, massive one.
So that’s what Dallas is weighing right now as it contemplates what trades it could pursue for players the team understands to be available.
GO DEEPER
The Mavericks’ fundamental trade deadline dilemma
Peyton J. asks, “Should the Mavs technically take a step back this year with the roster to set themselves up better for the summer and future years with Luka?”
I can understand where this sentiment comes from. There are intriguing examples of teams briefly tanking or trading core players who helped them achieve greater success in the following years. If Dončić’s ankle injury last week had been something serious, sure, this path might have been forced upon them. Last month, I wrote about the team’s need to really consider what this season’s all about.
But Dallas isn’t trading its role players for first-rounders or distant development projects. The roster doesn’t have the high-potential prospect who would be an ideal centerpiece to trade for a second star, but dealing those non-Dončić players won’t net them either. On the night this summer’s draft concludes, the team will have four of its own first-round picks to offer. If that’s not enough, then the Mavericks should be able to acquire more by dealing a role player or two. But that bridge is better crossed once the Mavericks have an actual deal in mind for an upgrade, not now, when they’d simply be attempting to stockpile more picks.
If Dallas trades players like Reggie Bullock or Dorian Finney-Smith, who The Athletic’s Shams Charania reported is movable for a high price, it would be for win-now players in return who would potentially fit the current mix better or simply shake up the roster. Even Tim Hardaway Jr. might be more valuable to the team as a salary match for a future deal than as a vehicle to take a chance on someone like Caris LeVert, a theoretical swap I keep mentioning because I think it represents the team’s dilemma.
Basically, I don’t think many moves could meaningfully increase the Mavericks’ future outlook, even in the event of a current step back. The Mavericks couldn’t tank even if they wanted as long as Dončić was on the floor. They can’t acquire the unproven youngster to headline the major moves we’ve seen in recent years. It’s better to orient the team’s team-building outlook around one or two moves that acquire starter-level talents, something Austin Ngaruiya and I talked about on last week’s 77 Minutes episode. That means aiming for a player like Fred VanVleet, not Pascal Siakam. They don’t need to step back to make those types of moves. They just need their trade partners to be willing to cooperate to start making them this deadline.
Christian Wood is an exception to the step-back strategy due to his expiring contract and because his trade value has not improved much since Dallas acquired him last summer. Should Dallas look to recoup a first-rounder at the expense of weakening the roster this season? The team is running out of time to decide if it wants to commit to re-signing Wood this summer. But while it isn’t ideal to lose him for nothing in the offseason if he signs with another team, you have to at least consider the value he’d add to the current team the rest of the season vs. one late or protected pick.
Finally… we’ve all seen this team over the past couple of weeks. Is there a further step back it could even take? The Mavs are brushing up against the absolute lowest floor possible with an MVP-level Dončić, and removing the most competent role players he still won’t make anything better.
Walton W. asks, “Hey Tim—I realize you’re not a mind reader—”
You’re about to ask about Luka.
“—but if this team continues to tread water for the rest of this season and doesn’t make real progress next year, either, how long do you think Luka hangs in with this organization before he starts making noises about moving on?”
My sense is that Dončić will give Dallas every opportunity to make this roster better before his frustrations reach the point that he would leave. I’m not even sure he would ever request a trade. He has a stubbornness about him that might not ever let him accept defeat in that manner, as you surely know watching him play. But that’s far different than saying he wouldn’t leave if his contract expired and Dallas was no closer to title contention than they are now.
I don’t think this stretch of basketball is worth being concerned about when it comes to Dončić’s future. It’s not putting doubts into Dončić’s mind that would supersede the next couple of years if the front office has been successful. The only thing that would do that would be the failure to put a title-contending roster around him, which is to say, there’s nothing about Dončić that would make this roster-building process any different from the way the front office would normally conduct it . What matters is doing it successfully.
Mike P. asks, “Exactly why isn’t JaVale McGee getting more minutes right now?”
McGee showed on Monday that he can still do productive basketball things when he’s on the court. It’s just been clear this entire season that the helpful things he does are outweighed by the unhelpful ones — acting beyond his offensive role, losing his man far too often. That is what caused the coaching staff to bench him. It’s an awfully frustrating dilemma of the team’s own making, no question.
Stanton H. asks, “What’s the deal with free throw shooting?”
There’s a simple answer to this one too, which is that the Mavericks just don’t have players who are good free-throw shooters. I’m not trying to be overly simplistic! Some players are underperforming their percentages, for sure. But, broadly speaking, the players are close enough to their averages that there’s really no need to search for some overarching reason. They just don’t have good foul shooters, especially for the player who takes them the most.
Anthony V. asks, “Tim, what players are you 100 percent certain will be on the roster for opening day next year? I would only say Luka, (Josh) Green and Hardy.”
I’d end the list after Dončić and Green. Maxi Kleber probably has more value to this team than to the rest of the league too. But past Dončić, Green is the only player the Mavericks would really hesitate to trade. His modern 3-and-D approach — one that includes some playmaking and off-the-dribble ability — is the kind every championship contender relies upon.
(Photo: Cole Burston/Getty Images)
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