The NFL season is here. The most important thing is to get your bets down. What would football be without gambling?
The most flawed wager I’ve witnessed so far this season is Carolina back Christian McCaffrey drafted second overall in a $6,500-per-team fantasy league. McCaffrey has played just 10 games over the past two years due to injury. Looks like Tarzan, plays rarely.
What’s the over/under on when McCaffrey gets hurt again? That’s a bet I’d rather make. Set that line for Steelers edge rusher TJ Watt, too.
There should be a prop wager on Steelers quarterback Mitch Trubisky throwing a pick-six.
Trubisky is the only quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to start 50-plus games and never have an interception returned for a touchdown.
It’s an astonishing factoid. But as soon as we learned that, it got bound to happen. Give me $100 on ex-Steelers defensive back Mike Hilton in Sunday’s opener at Cincinnati. The odds should be long when the word “never” applies.
The over/under for Steelers wins is 7½. But I like teasing that figure to 8½. That takes the odds to minus-200. You wager 200 to win 100, but it’s simplified to betting on coach Mike Tomlin to have his first losing season.
It would be great if that happened. The hype for it is exhausting. But the Steelers could go 8-8-1. You lose the bet, and the horse manure keeps flowing. (A more significant Tomlin streak: No playoff wins in five seasons.)
What’s the over/under on when fans at Acrisure Stadium start chanting Kenny Pickett’s name during the Steelers home opener vs. New England on Sept. 18? Three Trubisky incompletions seems reasonable. A Trubisky pick-six might see the place engulfed in flames.
Here’s the futures bets I’m making:
• Los Angeles Chargers to win the Super Bowl at plus-1400. That’s a good price for an excellent team with a great quarterback.
• That quarterback, Justin Herbert, to win NFL MVP at plus-1000. (Buffalo’s Josh Allen is the favorite at plus-500, but the chalk is no fun. No value, either.)
• Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins to win NFL MVP at plus-4000. The Herbert bet is a hedge. Cousins winning MVP is more enticing. Last season, Cousins completed 66.3% of his passes for 4,221 yards, 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He had a passer rating of 103.1. Transfer those stats to a division winner, and those are MVP numbers. (Uh, maybe. It’s sketchy to wager on something people vote for.)
Minnesota should make the playoffs, The Vikings might overhaul Green Bay to win the NFC North. Betting on Cousins is a fun gamble.
• Dallas linebacker Micah Parsons (plus-1100) to be Defensive Player of the Year. The Cowboys have cachet, however undeserved. Los Angeles Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald has won three times. They’re tired of giving it to him. Watt won’t win it a second straight time, and he feels due for a big injury. Myles Garrett is the favorite at plus-700 but, again, the chalk is no fun.
You should be able to bet if Tom Brady leaves Tampa Bay mid-season to help the missus with the dishes. (That would be disguised as an “injury.”) Brady double-crossed his wife Gisele with his 40-day retirement. Hell hath no fury like a woman with more money.
If they divorce, though, Gisele might have to pay Brady alimony.