The Patriots are off this week, left to self-scout ways to improve a struggling offense while continuing to play dominant defense. They know what looms after the break: a home game against the Jets that has massive playoff implications. But no one knows what will happen after that in what has already been a turbulent season.
That’s not going to stop us from taking a stab at it, though. While the team breaks for its bye, let’s peer into our crystal ball and offer up 10 predictions for the second half of the season.
The Patriots will finish 9-8
Let’s get the big one out of the way first. This would mean a 4-4 finish to the season, which isn’t too bad considering the Patriots’ second half is tougher than their first half and includes games against the Dolphins (6-3), Jets (6-3), Bengals (5-4) and Vikings (7-1), plus two against the Bills (6-2). (Just writing out all those opponents with their records has me second-guessing this prediction.)
I have no idea whether nine wins will be enough to nab the last wild-card spot, and that might depend on who they beat (again, that Jets game is huge).
I think a 3-5 finish is more likely than 5-3, but I’m putting faith in Bill Belichick’s defense to overcome an offense that has been brutal of late. Speaking of which …
Mac Jones will improve … a little
Jones ranks near the bottom of the league in every meaningful quarterback stat. There are many reasons for his regression: The offensive line has been a mess. The coaching he’s getting isn’t nearly as good as last year. The play calls and designs have been subpar. And he made uncharacteristic mistakes on top of that.
I’m not predicting that Jones comes out and plays like the above-average quarterback he was last year. But he can’t be this bad over an entire season, can he?
GO DEEPER
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Bailey Zappe won’t start another game — unless Mac Jones gets hurt
It has been widely suggested that Belichick didn’t properly handle Jones’ return from a high-ankle sprain, which led a portion of the fan base to want to see the former first-round pick benched for Zappe, a rookie fourth-round pick.
Even if Belichick hasn’t come out to staunchly defend Jones and insist he’s the quarterback for the long haul, I think that’s the basic feeling among the coaching staff. The guess here is that Jones is the starting quarterback next year, too, before the Patriots have to decide whether or not to pick up his fifth-year option.
That leaves Zappe as the backup — barring injury.
This will be wide receiver Jakobi Meyers’ final season in New England
This is probably the boldest prediction here and certainly does not indicate what the Patriots think of their best receiver.
But the market for wide receivers has exploded, and this crop of free agents at the position is nothing special. Meyers and JuJu Smith-Schuster are the top receivers set to become free agents in March. That could lead to a massive offer for Meyers, one that the Patriots may not be willing to match. He seems to like playing in New England, and plenty can still happen between now and then. (It’s also worth noting that teams typically spend part of their bye week checking in on pending free agents to see if they can agree to a midseason extension.)
But if the Patriots don’t extend him now, Meyers could be in line to get big-time money in free agency. Last year, Christian Kirk got a four-year, $72 million contract with numbers very similar to what Meyers is on pace for. That kind of deal is certainly possible for Meyers, who turns 26 this week.
The Patriots can ill afford to lose their most (or only?) consistent receiver, but they may not be able to match his highest offer since they have so many other positions that need attention, too.
Tyquan Thornton will get more involved
Playing time has arrived for Thornton, the rookie who entered with such high expectations before a broken collarbone wiped away his first four games. Since he came back, Thornton has been on the field for two-thirds of the team’s offensive snaps. But the results of the last three weeks have been concerning, as he has totaled just three catches for 37 yards.
Just given how low that bar is, we should expect an uptick in Thornton’s production. But given the Meyers situation outlined above, the Patriots would also be wise to fully know what they have in Thornton entering Year 2 as they have big decisions to make on the horizon.
Jonathan Jones will become a Pro Bowler
At first, the Patriots’ decision to move Jones to outside corner seemed odd. He’s undersized, he’d spent his career in the slot and was very good there. So why move a guy away from a position he’s good at to a different spot that doesn’t fit his body profile?
Yet the move has worked better than just about anyone could have guessed. Jones has played like one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. If he keeps it going in the second half, he could be headed to the Pro Bowl.
The offensive line will remain an issue
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to foresee continued struggles from the Patriots’ front five. They’ve gotten such poor play at left guard and right tackle the last three weeks that it’s hard to get much going offensively outside of some incredible individual plays from Rhamondre Stevenson. You’d like to think Cole Strange will continue to progress as a rookie, but there’s still little explanation for how Isaiah Wynn went from a good left tackle to a bad right tackle/left guard.
Matthew Judon’s production will slow down amid double-teams
No one is within three sacks of Judon, who leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks. But with that total comes added attention. His share of double-teams is about to increase, and two of his next three matchups are against teams with good left tackles (the Vikings and Bills).
Judon is an incredible player, and this isn’t to say he’s going to get worse in the second half — just that his first half was so good, it’ll be hard to keep pace.
The Patriots will sweep the Cardinals and Raiders in prime time
At the outset of the season, a six-day stretch of prime-time games in Arizona and Las Vegas seemed like arguably the toughest back-to-back on the Patriots’ schedule.
That’s not the case anymore. The Cardinals have major issues, and Kliff Kingsbury is on the hot seat. Meanwhile, Josh McDaniels’ second head coaching stint is going much like his first, with the Raiders sitting at 2-6 entering this week’s game.
If the Patriots are going to make the playoffs, they’ll probably need to win both of these road games.
Jack Jones will become a starter
While Jonathan Jones has been great, Jalen Mills on the opposite side has had some struggles. That could open the door for more playing time for Jack Jones, the rookie who has shined in a limited role this season.
The Patriots played top-five receivers in half of their final eight games — Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Stefon Diggs twice. They need their best cornerbacks on the field for those matchups.
(Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
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