Lowetide: Should the Oilers keep Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together?

Since 2015, every Edmonton Oilers coach has made the choice to play Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl together at five-on-five.

Todd McLellan and Dave Tippett instantly warmed to the idea, the “nuclear option” innovation eventually turning into regular routine.

Jay Woodcroft took a different route but is trending in the same direction as McLellan and Tippett.

The temptation is strong. Is that a good thing?

Why do coaches ignore the opportunity to run two powerful lines, and in doing so make life difficult for opponents? Are there times when the all-star strategy is the best option? Let’s have a look.

The early years (2015-16 through 2017-18)

This could be called the McLellan era, although he did coach the team into the 2018-19 season. McLellan wasn’t difficult to convince in regard to the magic of the two men together and the results were strong. McDavid played 36 percent of his minutes with Draisaitl during those years, while 35 percent of Draisaitl’s ice time was with 97.

All numbers five-on-five

Even as a young NHL player, McDavid was a dominant scorer and an outscorer.

Draisaitl was effective on the line, and he was more effective as a solo center than the rest of the group. Watching in those years it was clear Draisaitl was young and learning, so moving him to wing had some appeal.

McLellan was bleeding goals when the two men were off the ice, and the difference between McDavid solo and McDavid-Draisaitl was inconsequential. Any assumed strategic edge (down a goal late or wanting a first-period marker, the coach could weaponize the top line in an effort to score) was more eye test than fact.

McDavid solo and McDavid-Draisaitl delivered almost identical results in these years.

McLellan would have been better off running the two men apart.

The middle period (2018-19 and 2019-20)

All numbers five-on-five

These years were rife with coaching changes and a lack of cap room to sign free agents. General manager Peter Chiarelli authored a country song (the money ran out and the engine blew) with his NHL team, so the choice was often Draisaitl or Ty Rattie (a talented scorer in junior but not an NHL regular on a skill line) and the Big German forward won the battle.

The time together increased, as McDavid spent 56 percent of his minutes with 29, and Draisaitl was on the ice with the captain for 53 percent of his total time.

The results justified the investment, as the duo had a goal share over 50 percent and scored an outstanding 4.02 goals per 60 together.

Make no mistake, this was a failure of management (the team didn’t have enough quality forwards, that’s on the general manager) but the coaching solution was justified during these seasons.

The North Division (2020-21)

I’ve separated the COVID season because the Oilers didn’t play against every NHL team, so the results were skewed. Ken Holland was the general manager and Tippett was the coach.

All numbers five-on-five

This was a strong season for the duo, but percentages of overall time (35 percent of McDavid, 38 for Draisaitl) spent together was down from previous levels.

The math suggests Tippett would have been justified running the two men together, as the scoring rate and goal share are exceptional.

McDavid solo delivered high-octane offense while managing just a 50 percent goal share, while Draisaitl solo won the goal share handily but scored less than expected.

The rest of the group was in the ditch all year, a key to what was ultimately a disappointing season.

The 2020-21 season should be considered an outlier but is interesting in uncovering the coaching strategy.

The 2021-22 season

The 2021-22 season was split by a coaching change and brought different results. First, let’s look at the Tippett games, usage and overall success.

All numbers five-on-five

McDavid’s time with Draisaitl represented 32 percent of overall at five-on-five, Draisaitl the same. Tippett settled in on a 30-35 percent deployment as coach of the team.

Under Tippett, the goal share was strong for any combination of McDavid and Draisaitl, but as was the case with all of his teams, the bottom six was a disaster at five-on-five.

Here are the Woodcroft numbers.

All numbers five-on-five

The big difference is the lower percentage of overall time 97 and 29 spent together under Woodcroft. For McDavid (9 percent) and Draisaitl (10 percent) the change was immediate and helped an impact run for the team.

It should be mentioned the coaching change, Evander Kane’s signing and the return to health of Mike Smith (complete with exceptional hot streak in goal) were major factors. Woodcroft’s splitting up the impact centers also had a positive impact, as the team finished 26-9-3 and went into the playoffs on a roll.

A funny thing happened in the postseason. Woodcroft, partly due to a Draisaitl injury, put the two men back together again on the same line. The results were outstanding.

All numbers five-on-five

These numbers are eye-popping across the board. McDavid-Draisaitl had a playoff run for the ages, with McDavid and Draisaitl dominating postseason scoring despite playing fewer games.

The injury had an impact on the decision to combine the duo, and the results were so strong there was no thought of splitting the two men up during the series against the Los Angeles Kings, Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche.

This season

The season started with McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines, but the coaching staff has been deploying the two men at five-on-five more often in the last month. Almost 80 percent of the time on ice for the duo at five-on-five took place in the last 30 days.

All numbers five-on-five

This is the most unique set of stats in the entire exercise, led by a strong showing by “the rest,” which represents the second, third and fourth lines.

McDavid and Draisaitl are scoring and own a strong goal share together. It’s also worth noting the team’s record since Nov. 22 is 7-5-2, a marked improvement over the club’s 10-9-0 start.

McDavid solo and Draisaitl solo are off this year, and there is justification for the current alignment. It’s also possible Draisaitl’s ankle injury suffered during the Los Angeles series last spring has some lingering issues.

What does it all mean?

Now for those original questions:

Why do coaches ignore the opportunity to run two powerful lines, and in doing so make life difficult for opponents? Are there times when the all-star strategy is the best option?

Ideally, the Oilers run McDavid on the No. 1 line and Draisaitl on the second line, but there are exceptions. During the period when Edmonton lacked enough depth to ice a full group of scoring wingers, Draisaitl (and Patrick Maroon) joined 97 and gave the team a lift. If the North Division ever returns, putting the two men on the same line is recommended. Last spring, when Draisaitl was less than 100 percent, moving him to wing had enormous benefits.

That could be the case now. Draisaitl looked like he was (at times) laboring in the game against the Nashville Predators, and the team’s record since the move justifies the deployment if there’s an injury.

All things being equal, and when injured forwards like Kane and Ryan McLeod return, the best approach is to split the two impact centers.

Woodcroft’s Oilers are 7-5-2 in the last month, but 0-1-2 in the last three games. The time for change may be close.

(Photo: Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)