Lowetide: Oilers rookies Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway arriving right on time

The Edmonton Oilers are a franchise with five Stanley Cup victories, dozens of major awards and one of the most impressive post-expansion records in the NHL.

Despite all the success, no Oilers player has won the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year.

This season, two rookies who took some time to get comfortable (and healthy) are beginning to push for feature roles with the club. It won’t end the Calder Trophy drought, (if anything, Stuart Skinner is the top candidate on the roster), but Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway could be key players in the 2023 postseason.

Patience

On the day general manager Ken Holland arrived as Edmonton’s general manager, he talked about ripening and over-ripening talent in the minor leagues.

Oilers fans, used to the patented “draft them in June, dress them in October” approach to procuring young talent, are still adjusting to the slow-play style of the current management group.

Broberg, drafted in 2019, and Holloway, chosen one year later, are both 21 and finding their way as NHL players.

This season has seen real progress, and the splits for each player are strong enough to suggest that both will play significant roles on the team soon.

Here’s a quick profile of both men.

Philip Broberg

On his draft day, Red Line Report ranked Broberg No. 12 in the 2019 draft. Key verbal in the scouting report mentioned a “huge, smooth skating defenseman who has a combination of great size and obvious skills.” Most of the positives on draft day surrounded physical attributes and offense, but RLR did say “rugged competitor down low in his own zone” in regards to playing without the puck.

Broberg’s progress has been well documented since then. His closest comparable from the past is both Swedish and a former Oilers player: Oscar Klefbom.

Like Klefbom, who played 60 NHL games at 21 as a rookie, Broberg spent time in the minors before being recalled. He has played in 23 NHL games so far with 33 more on the schedule.

Broberg’s numbers in his rookie season saw strong growth from the early part of the year (first 11 games) through his most recent 12 games.

All numbers five-on-five

The improvement has had an impact on Edmonton’s third pair, with Broberg and partner Evan Bouchard delivering exceptional results.

Since Dec. 16 (12 games) Broberg and Bouchard have helped outscore opponents five-on-five 10-4 (71 percent) and own a 64 percent shot share together.

Puck IQ shows the pairing spends 18 percent of its time on ice against elites, 35 percent against mid-level opposition and the remainder (47 percent) against the easiest available opponents.

That’s a classic third pairing, and it’s likely the two men won’t face tougher opponents as a tandem until next season.

Broberg has broken through and is posting impressive numbers. It’s possible we see this pairing in the playoffs, albeit in sheltered minutes.

Why does it work?

Bouchard’s strengths are passing the puck and finding a way to get his shot through from the point in offensive situations.

Broberg is fast and can retrieve pucks quickly enough to beat opponents to the target and move things along before trouble occurs. Bouchard can move the puck out quickly, likely to a good spot where the puck doesn’t return to the danger zone for some time.

It’s a classic pairing, save for the lack of experience (Bouchard has played in just 151 NHL games). There’s a chance this pairing moves up the depth chart in time for next season. The numbers are impressive.

Is Broberg trade bait?

It’s extremely unlikely Holland would trade Broberg. He was the first player procured by the new general manager in 2019, and he will be a value contract next season. It would take an enormous return for the management group to move on from him. The only other young left-handed defender close to NHL regular status is Markus Niemelainen, who is not a similar player type.

Dylan Holloway

Ranked No. 26 in 2020 by Red Line Report, Holloway brings a nice combination of size, speed and determination. The big question surrounds how much offense he’ll be able to bring as an NHL regular. Red Line projected him as a “hard working middle-six center,” and that’s a role Holloway has covered during his rookie NHL season.

All numbers five-on-five

Trust is coming for the Oilers coaching staff, as Holloway’s increased playing time is a significant boost. He has developed real chemistry with Ryan McLeod. In 94 minutes at five-on-five, the two men are 9-3 goals (75 percent), although the expected goal share (50 percent) suggests regression down the line.

Holloway is being handled in typical fashion for a rookie: 17 percent versus elites, 38 percent against mid-level talent and 45 against the soft parade, via Puck IQ. In this way, Holloway and Broberg are receiving the same treatment from the coaching staff.

Holloway has not broken through, partly because of the increased competition he faces compared to Broberg. The more recent numbers suggest he is on the verge of regular minutes in the top nine forwards (top three lines).

Is Holloway trade bait?

Tyler Wright’s first selection as director of amateur scouting is an important piece of the future. Unique among the team’s major prospects, he can play center and has shown some ability there in pro hockey.

The only real question is offense, and the 1.59 points per 60 at five-on-five over the last 23 games ranks him No. 11 among Oilers forwards. Given the quality of linemates for Holloway over those 23 games, it isn’t a stretch to suggest he is one of the nine most talented scoring forwards on the roster at this time.

He does have more competition than Broberg for the job he seeks, most of those competitors are more expensive and not clearly better (although they have more experience).

The future

Chances are the Oilers will need more value contracts next year than this one. Including bonuses, Broberg ($1.713 million) and Holloway ($1.425 million) are both on value deals and could play a feature role next season.

That means they are unlikely to be dealt at the deadline. It also means any player in the $2.5 million plus range traded at the deadline or over the summer would ease the roster pressure for each man.

Broberg is about as secure as any young player in the system. Dmitri Samorukov’s trade to the St. Louis Blues cleared the way for the big Swede.

Holloway’s path became more complicated by the return in the Samorukov deal (Klim Kostin) but only Holloway is signed for next season and offers cost certainty.

With Holland’s patience both players allowed each to fight through injuries and the struggles of establishing themselves. The quality of play delivered by these players in the last month makes them attractive trade targets.

Holland’s long established approach to team building tells us Broberg and Holloway will be in Edmonton after the trade deadline and at training camp in the fall.

Organizations look for these kinds of spikes during entry-level deals, it’s an indication of NHL success. Both Broberg and Holloway are on track, and for Edmonton this season, arrived right on time.

(Photo of Philip Broberg: Perry Nelson / USA Today)