Lowetide: Oilers’ Darnell Nurse remains the top defenseman despite struggles

Edmonton Oilers management went against their own established draft bias when selecting Darnell Nurse in the first round of the 2013 draft. A team that hadn’t drafted a defenseman with its first selection since Jason Soules in 1988 stepped up to grab Nurse with pick No. 7.

Then-GM Craig MacTavish could not contain his excitement over getting the big, rugged defenseman for the organization.

MacTavish was specific about what the organization was getting, saying “he really gives us an element that I feel we’re sorely lacking. He’s a guy that over time — we’ll be patient with him — is going to provide us with the toughness. And he’s the guy that will ride shotgun for a lot of our first overall picks, our skilled players, for a lot of years.”

For analytics nerds, Eric Tulsky (now Carolina Hurricanes AGM, then a fine writer for Broad Street Hockey) gave observers a strong view of the player who was drafted. At the time, Nurse was playing a major role (estimated over 25 minutes a night) and tough minutes (estimated second pairing) for the OHL’s Soo Greyhounds.

Greyhounds GM Kyle Dubas (now with the Toronto Maple Leafs) was pronounced in his praise for Nurse, saying “his underlying numbers are excellent. Relative to the competition he plays (against), he does extremely well. Far greater than 50 percent of the time, the puck is not in our end. To me, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. If we’re taking the other team’s best players and forcing them to play in their end and away from the puck, that’s a successful day. The quality of competition he’s faced is higher than anyone else in our league, especially among defensemen.”

Nurse in the NHL

An NHL regular since 2015-16, Nurse is an established top-four NHL defenseman who has been the de facto No. 1 defender in Edmonton since Oscar Klefbom’s career-ending injuries forced him to leave the game.

Puck IQ gives us a great view of Nurse’s career progression in the NHL. Using the site’s unique ‘binning’ that separates opponents via quality of competition, we can see how quickly Nurse moved up the depth chart, and the results delivered. The 2021-22 season is split to show Dave Tippett and Jay Woodcroft’s deployment in that campaign.

All numbers five-on-five

Nurse’s career in the NHL featured a quick trip up the depth chart as a rookie, followed by three seasons playing depth and second-pairing roles. Since 2019-20, he has been the top defenseman on the team. That’s Tippett and Woodcroft, both using Nurse as the first option among the defenders.

It’s important to note that one of the key changes in 2021-22 came when Woodcroft elevated Nurse’s time on ice versus elites. Along with the signing of Evander Kane and out-of-this-world goaltending from Mike Smith, Nurse paired with Cody Ceci and deployed against elites and had a massive impact.

This season, Nurse is once again the top defender, and the results versus elites are interesting.

All numbers five-on-five, DFF Pct is smart Corsi

Woodcroft and defense coach Dave Manson have been running the Nurse-Ceci pairing heavily, and the duo has been having success against elites. Brett Kulak also shows well in fewer minutes, and on the surface, Tyson Barrie also struggles.

An interesting and recent wrinkle employed by the coaching staff over the last 10 games may offer a solution to a problem that has plagued the Oilers all since. Since December 5th, the TOI split between the top four defenders (and the results) gives the team more options and some improved performances.

All numbers five-on-five, DFF Pct is smart Corsi

The sample size for each defenseman is far too small to draw conclusions, but it is true that Nurse saw a spike in possession and goal share in the 10 games he was used less often against elite competition. At the very least it’s an interesting trend worth pursuing.

The $9.25 million issue

In August of 2021, Nurse signed an eight-year, $74 million deal that kicked in this fall. The contract was expensive, mostly due to the organization kicking the problem down the road twice with bridge deals.

That contract, like Shawn Horcoff’s six-year, $33 million contract signed in 2008, guaranteed Nurse’s value to the team would be shy of his cap hit. Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn at The Athletic estimate Nurse’s current value at $5.3 million, meaning the big defenseman is delivering approximately $4 million less than his contract based on the numbers.

That’s an issue for management, and Nurse may be dealt if Edmonton ever finds a better left defenseman, but for the here and now the contract is nothing more than a hammer that fans can use when Nurse makes mistakes.

This season, he’s doing more than usual. Those errors are ending up in the back of the net more often, and the Woodcroft coaching staff is attempting to deal with it by using Kulak-Barrie more often at five-on-five.

Nurse is a veteran NHL defenseman whose record has been solid over many seasons. Since he emerged as the top defenseman on the team in 2019-20, his five-on-five goal share against all levels of competition is 223-218 (50.5 percent).

That breaks down to 123-105 (54 percent) with Connor McDavid on the top line (elite minutes) and 100-113 (47 percent) without the captain. As a point of comparison, Adam Larsson was 13-12 (52 percent) with McDavid in two seasons during the same period, and 44-56 (44 percent) without 97 in his last two seasons with the club.

Taking the entire four-year period (including this year) as a group, and counting only five-on-five goals without McDavid, Nurse’s performance stands up.

This sheds some light on Nurse’s numbers without McDavid, but it doesn’t reveal all.

In the three years (with or without a person numbers are not available yet for this season) in question, Nurse has played against elite competition without McDavid a total of 691 five-on-five minutes.

His goal share (23-26, 47 percent) against elites in that time without McDavid is stronger than Duncan Keith (39 percent) and Oscar Klefbom (40 percent) in their time with Edmonton in the window being examined.

Nurse and his struggles

The Oilers deploy Nurse as the top option because he’s the best available.

Many fans are upset about his contract and the mistakes made, and there’s a sense that the team is being held back by his uneven performance.

There’s no evidence available to suggest the team has replaced Klefbom since his injury, and therefore there’s no evidence the team has a better option on the roster.

Chances are Nurse settles into his normal role as a reliable defender capable of delivering outscoring on the team’s No. 1 unit at five-on-five.

There are defensemen in the NHL who have eight years of experience after eight NHL seasons, and there are those who play eight seasons while looking like a rookie in every single one.

Darnell Nurse has grown into a fine and useful defenseman. If there’s anything he could be accused of, he needs help on the left side of the defense.

Despite struggles, Nurse is the top defenseman on the Oilers. It isn’t close.

(Photo: David Berding/Getty Images)