Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ defense evolving through a period of transition

On Saturday night in Las Vegas, the Edmonton Oilers were protecting a 4-3 lead against the Golden Knights.

The clock read 1:57 remaining in the third period. Vincent Desharnais, in just his third NHL game, jumped over the boards to protect the one-goal lead. He was joined by veteran Brett Kulak, in support of the Ryan Nugent-Hopkins line (Klim Kostin and Mattias Janmark).

It was a striking moment in a season of transition for the Edmonton defense.

The top pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci hit the ice with 1:20 left and played the final 80 seconds with the Connor McDavid line (Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman).

Transitioning personnel doesn’t mean better results, but the Oilers are 4-2-1 in the last seven games, with a 61 percent goal share five-on-five in those games.

This is a brand new story, the third pairing lacks experience and Desharnais has played just one week in the league. What is happening with the Oilers defense?

Month by month

The Oilers have employed nine defensemen so far this season, that’s not an unusually high number for the halfway point of a season. The team had one poor month (November) and it was a team effort. Here are the vital numbers, by month, so far this season:

Numbers via Natural Stat Trick

This year’s model can score goals (No. 4 in the NHL currently with 3.63 goals per game) and is well over 50 percent goal share in all months but November.

The shot share, both at five-on-five and overall has been going down since the beginning of the year. The Oilers are outperforming the expected goal share at five-on-five, but that’s to be expected with McDavid and Draisaitl pushing the river. They are as efficient in their own way as the 1980s Oilers, who required fewer shots to blow out opponents offensively.

Considering all of these numbers, it’s fair to say head coach Jay Woodcroft, defense coach Dave Manson and the entire coaching staff are making progress in shot and goal suppression against goalies Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell.

What has changed since the beginning of the season?

The top pairing

Nurse and Ceci became an established pairing in March 2022, when Woodcroft and Manson put them together on the designated no. 1 pair and pushed extreme minutes on the two men. It worked well during the rest of the 2021-22 season, with Nurse-Ceci going 19-18 five-on-five goals in 318 minutes over 25 games.

The playoffs led to more success, 17-16 goals (five-on-five) in 212 minutes over 15 games. This season, Nurse-Ceci are 24-24 goals in the discipline over 607 minutes in 45 games.

Using Puck IQ, we can drill down on playing time versus elites, and using with and without you find out what’s happening with the top pairing this season.

These numbers versus elites are a far cry from the duo’s 2021-22 performance. In 252 minutes against the league’s best last season, the tandem had a DFF percentage (smart Corsi) of 56.8 and a number relative to teammates fully 7.5 percent superior. Added to the fact that the pairing played far more against elites than the rest of the defense, and Nurse-Ceci was key to Edmonton’s second half run.

What is Woodcroft doing about the downbeat this season? Using all numbers, here’s Nurse with and without each defensive partner for the season to date.

All numbers five-on-five

Ceci is 50 percent with or without Nurse this season, but Nurse is the player assigned the toughest minutes. That means the quality of competition eases when Ceci plays away from Nurse.

No such luxury for Nurse who always plays against elites.

What is working for this team in recent games? Over the last three games, some interesting tweaks have taken place.

All numbers five-on-five

Nurse-Ceci took 10 offensive- and 19 defensive-zone faceoffs. That suggests a specific role for the pairing, and the duo was on the ice for the final seconds of the Golden Knights game on Saturday. The two men are averaging 11:04 together in this three-game window.

The big difference is how much time each man spends away from the other in these three games. Ceci is averaging less than two additional minutes per game, Nurse is averaging almost eight extra minutes.

He is thriving in those minutes. He is 1-0 goals, and over 75 percent in shot share and expected goals. Thirteen of the 23 additional minutes were spent with Desharnais, the two men were 7-1 in shots. Four minutes were spent with Bouchard, and Edmonton scored during that time.

The coaching staff is rotating partners, likely looking for the best fit. There are three possible reasons for the rotation away from last year’s most successful duo:

• Ceci is hurt or suffering from some kind of malady.
• The Oilers are showcasing someone.
• Management is contemplating a trade to bring in a right-handed defenseman to play with Nurse.

The third option seems beyond belief, and in truth, the performance of Nurse without Ceci is enough to justify the move. It’s possible the coaching staff has identified an inefficiency in the Nurse-Ceci pairing and that Desharnais compensates for it. The most obvious reason would be winning board battles, and that speaks to possible injury.

It’s something to watch as the deadline nears, and as always a small sample warning on Desharnais’ elevation to the top pair.

The second and third pairings

On opening night, Edmonton’s second pairing was populated by Ryan Murray and Evan Bouchard (12:37 five-on-five together, 0-1 goals, 7-4 shots). The third pair based on ice time was Brett Kulak and Tyson Barrie (9:28, 0-11 shots, no goals), the duo was absolutely flattened during the game by the Conor Garland-Bo Horvat-Vasily Podkolzin line.

That was a harbinger of things to come and has been an issue all season. It’s the top reason fans are talking so much about a deadline trade for a second pairing left-handed defenseman.

There is at least some reason to believe that the coaching staff has found a workaround. Consider these two pairings and their numbers since Dec. 1.

The Kulak and Barrie pairing has bent (shot share) but not broken (goal share) since Dec. 1.

The pairing of rookie Philip Broberg and Bouchard, another youngster, has been a revelation and could inform the trade deadline. The duo is delivering and taking on more chores as time goes on; confidence is growing in the players and coaching staff.

This has a chance to be a key turning point for the Oilers this season.

The next few weeks

The deadline is March 3, there will be plenty of time for all involved to find their role and thrive.

It’s likely general manager Ken Holland will make a trade for a defenseman at the deadline.

There are two things to keep in mind that weren’t evident earlier in the season.

First, Nurse-Ceci is faltering. That could mean the acquisition of a right-handed defender instead of a lefty. Broberg’s emergence could also serve as proof that the real need is on the right side.

Second, Desharnais’ presence gives the coaching staff and management options. Even if a trade is made and he lands back in Bakersfield, he’s just a recall away and NHL teams often run through more than eight defensemen during deep playoff runs.

Recent events on Edmonton’s blue line have given clarity and some hope. What happens now is in the hands of eight men on the roster and a coaching staff with many more options than were available in October. The Bakersfield pipeline is coming through again, in the form of Broberg, Desharnais and Markus Niemelainen.

The sprint to the deadline is the place some of these men will earn full-time jobs in the NHL.

(Photo of Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)