Lowetide: Are the Oilers creative enough in cap management to make a strong trade?

The Edmonton Oilers approach the NHL trade deadline on March 3 with significant needs.

Ken Holland, Edmonton’s general manager, trades for a defenseman at every deadline. Fans can count on an acquisition ranging from a future Hall of Fame player (Chris Chelios) to a useful depth veteran (Dmitry Kulikov), both acquired by Holland at the deadline while he was general manager.

Based on Holland’s own established habits, the process begins with a list of candidates for procurement. The organization places the list in order of preference, and Holland reaches out to find out the question for each player.

For the Oilers at this deadline, the problems begin with the ask from other teams.

Holland has most of his picks in the 2023 draft (only the fourth-round selection has been sent away), and some interesting prospects with potential. He does not possess a strong pipeline of attractive talent.

The other problem is money, or more specifically cap room. The team is over the cap and reliant on LTIR contracts currently. That won’t change between now and the deadline.

It means dollars in, dollars out in equal amounts in any series of trades.

That limits the option and may require a third party involved in a deal.

The Oilers are not regarded as a wildly imaginative organization, but the team has done well in recent months by procuring talent like Zach Hyman, Evander Kane and (most recently) a trade for Klim Kostin.

The inventive trade options available are known to the Oilers but have not been utilized effectively in the past by Edmonton.

Does Holland have the staff who can pull off a complicated deal involving three teams? How much would it cost? Have the Oilers built up any value among prospects? Is there a trade template that could work for Edmonton at the deadline?

Three-way trade

Ask an Oilers fan to name a previous three-way deal made by the organization and you might get a blank stare. The most famous in recent history might be the March 4, 2009, deal that had the Los Angeles Kings trade Patrick O’Sullivan to the Carolina Hurricanes, with the Hurricanes dealing O’Sullivan to the Oilers in order to reacquire winger Erik Cole.

The numbers each man posted after the trade tell an interesting story.

The trade was another reminder for Oilers fans (as if they needed more reminders) that the organization wasn’t strong in the area of ​​player evaluation at that time.

O’Sullivan’s performance in Edmonton was influenced by some baffling decisions, including deployment of the skill winger on a designated checking line.

During the 2009-10 season under coach Pat Quinn, O’Sullivan often played on the checking line with center Shawn Horcoff and a variety of wingers ill-suited to the task. The Horcoff-O’Sullivan tandem got flattened at five-on-five, outscored 19-4 in 243 minutes, via Natural Stat Trick.

Current management should be able to make a better deal, and evaluation of talent at the pro level is improving, but there’s danger in making a multi-team deal at the deadline.

The cap

Part of the problem is the offloading cap.

Jesse Puljujarvi is often mentioned as the likely player to exit. His $3 million cap hit is too dear for a player whose scoring rates are so low (1.04 points per 60 at five-on-five) and who owns a ghastly goal differential (38 percent goal share) in the discipline.

However, the big winger has improved numbers (1.55 points per 60 and a 64 percent goal share) since Dec. 15.

Edmonton could be trading a valuable player just as he’s heating up.

Valuable prospects

Holland may need to surrender one or two prospects from the system. The Oilers are less likely to deal NHL rookies Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway because of each man’s recent spike with the parent club. That leaves very few names that have enough value to move the needle. Here’s a quick look at some of the performances that may grab the attention of other NHL teams at the deadline.

Assuming the 2023 first-round pick is the top asset in the organization (this year’s draft is strong), the next piece with the most appeal is likely Xavier Bourgault. His scoring levels are below Kailer Yamamoto and Holloway at the same age, but he has dynamic skills and touches the puck often in the AHL.

Bourgault’s prominence after just 33 games is a tell. He may not appear in the NHL this season, but a team scouting him will notice good work in all three game states and a great deal of skill and determination.

The other player who might have enough value to make a difference is huge winger Maxim Berezkin. He’s 21, has size (6-foot-2, 216 pounds), is a fine passer and is known for winning puck battles along the wall. The KHL is an excellent league, it’s possible Berezkin could be in play if another NHL team wants a power forward prospect.

The template

Holland has a trade template once he has identified a target. It’s expensive and involves an overpay but he does get his man.

On the day Holland acquired Chelios, he also picked up veterans Wendel Clark, Ulf Samuelsson and Bill Ranford. Holland gave up two firsts, two seconds, a third, Kevin Hodson and future considerations to bring all that talent to his team on March 23, 1999. Detroit did not win the Stanley Cup that season, but had won it in 1997 and 1998 and would win again in 2002 and 2008.

The world is different now due to the cap, but the past informs the future. Holland will pay in full and then some for what he perceives as value.

The recent deal of Zack Kassian to the Arizona Coyotes is a likely template for a big deadline deal.

On July 7, 2022, Edmonton sent Kassian and the remainder of his contract ($3.2 million per season through 2023-24) to the Coyotes for a first-round pick (No. 29) in the 2022 draft, a third-round pick in 2024 and a second-round selection in 2025. Edmonton also received the No. 32 pick in the 2022 draft.

That’s a ton of assets for $3.2 million times two, but Holland needed the cap room to sign free agents Evander Kane, Jack Campbell and Brett Kulak.

Opinions on the wisdom of the deal vary, but it gives us a good idea about Holland’s modus operandi. He pays to the outer marker and then adds more in order to secure his target.

Was it an overpay? On the same day as the Kassian deal, the Maple Leafs traded a first-round pick (No. 25) and goaltender Petr Mrazek ($3.8 million times two) to Chicago for the No. 38 selection.

Toronto’s move was more successful than Edmonton’s by a significant margin.

Recent events

The Oilers made some changes in the pro scouting department over the offseason. Brad Holland was named AGM, professional scouting and Warren Rychel was added to the group. Holland has analytics expertise that may aid the senior Holland as he enters the deadline negotiations.

The early returns (trade for Kostin, signing Jason Demers and Justin Bailey to NHL deals) are good, although bets on Ryan Murray and Jake Virtanen were not strong.

The overall record has improved, while also being less than expected for a team that should be near the top of the Pacific Division based on the elite talent housed on the roster.

Saving grace

The emergence of Broberg and Holloway, and the two-game audition of Vincent Desharnais, give Holland some room to wheel if he decides going to market is the best plan.

It also gives him an opportunity to make a lesser bet if the new arrivals from the Bakersfield Condors continue to develop.

Fans can expect one of two styles at the deadline. A smaller deal that sends a depth pick for a rental, there’s likely to be one or two of those.

The big deal would look like the Kassian trade.

A guess would have Puljujarvi ($3 million cap hit), the 2023 first-round selection and one of the prospects sent away in return for a left-handed defenseman who can help the team this year (and possibly next season) in the team’s run. for the Stanley Cup in 2023 and 2024.

The problem for Holland is finding a good match for the team needs. This is the area where an analytics department can help in a big way.

The bottom line

There is no evidence the Oilers will use all of the cap levers available to make an efficient deal at the deadline. The Kassian trade is likely closer to what fans will see in Edmonton.

There are several reasons for fans to be skeptical about making an equal value trade:

• Overpays are most common at the deadline.
• Edmonton’s own history suggests an overpay is likely.
• There’s no evidence the Oilers’ analytics department is a driving force in the room when deals are being made.

All of that said, Holland could still make a big trade and that deal could help Edmonton in bringing the Stanley Cup to northern Alberta for a sixth time.

The elite talent of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is such that anything is possible. Holland’s arrival in the spring of 2019, and his belief in Philip Broberg at the draft that summer, appears to be a developing story that could impact the 2023 trade deadline.

(Photo of Jesse Puljujarvi: Stan Szeto / USA Today)