Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total, over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Los Angeles Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers (+1400 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 record: 9-8, 3rd in AFC West
It was an offseason of what-ifs for the Los Angeles Chargers as their high-powered offense came up short with a playoff spot on the line in the final regular season game against the Raiders.
Los Angeles lost 35-32 on the final play in overtime thanks to a Brandon Staley timeout on third and fourth, with the Raiders on the 39-yard line and 38 seconds left in the game.
The Raiders were in 11-personnel: one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers. But Staley wanted more size up front, so he replaced linebacker Kenneth Murray with tackle Linval Joseph.
However, the Chargers now had only one linebacker on the field responsible for defending the middle and plugging the gap, should one emerge.
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Staley’s decision ultimately cost the Chargers an opportunity to hold the Raiders to a long field goal, which they might’ve opted not to kick because a tie would’ve given both teams a trip to the playoffs.
Given the disappointment of how their season ended, Staley will hope for any redemption in his second year at the helm.
Chargers offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Notable free agency departures include guards Oday Aboushi (68.2 PFF grade) and Michael Schofield III (66.8 PFF grade), DT Linval Joseph (63.4 PFF grade), RB Justin Jackson (63.1 PFF grade), CB Chris Harris Jr. (62.4 PFF grade) and TE Jared Cook (61.9 PFF grade).
- Added CB JC Jackson (82.6 PFF grade), LB Khalil Mack (73.0 PFF grade), and DL Sebastian Joseph-Day (61.6 PFF grade).
- Drafted Boston College G Zion Johnson (16th pick), Baylor S JT Woods (79th pick), Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller (123rd pick), UCLA OL Otito Ogbonnia (160th pick), Georgia G Jamaree Salyer (195th pick), Wake Forest CB Ja’Sir Taylor (214th pick), Ole Miss DB Deane Leonard (236th pick), and Purdue FB Zander Horvath (260th pick).
Los Angeles Chargers 2022 schedule
Week 1: vs. Raiders
Week 2: at Chiefs
Week 3: vs. Jaguars
Week 4: at Texans
Week 5: at Browns
Week 6: vs. Broncos
Week 7: vs. Seahawks
Week 8: Bye
Week 9: at Falcons
Week 10: at 49ers
Week 11: vs. Chiefs
Week 12: at Cardinals
Week 13: at Raiders
Week 14: vs. Dolphins
Week 15: vs. Titans
Week 16: at Colts
Week 17: vs. Rams
Week 18: at Broncos
NFL betting lines: Chargers win total
O/U 10.5 wins
The Chargers have one of the highest win totals at 10.5 games, and while this is undoubtedly a team on the rise, the head coach remains a big question mark in my book.
For example, Staley became one of the most sought-after coaches in the league because of his work as a defensive coordinator with the Rams.
However, the Chargers’ defense worsened under Staley’s watch as last year it was 20th in Football Outsiders DVOA metric but finished 26th after his first year.
Chargers head coaches have a history of making blunders at the worst possible moment so forgive me if I exercise a bit of caution here.
Los Angeles will also play in the toughest division in the league, which means there will likely be quite a few coin-flip games. From what I saw last season, I just have a hard time trusting Staley to win more close games than he loses.
I can’t see this team winning 11 games with the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos still in the mix. And with the under juiced to -155, I think the betting market supports my assertion.
The Pick
Lean: Under 10.5 wins
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Justin Herbert O/U 4600.5 passing yards (FanDuel)
Just because I leaned to the bottom with the Chargers’ win total doesn’t mean I’m bearish on them this season.
And although Staley sometimes looks like he can screw up a cup of coffee, I can’t see him getting in the way of Justin Herbert.
In Herbert’s second season, he threw for over 5,000 yards and looked relatively comfortable doing so. Los Angeles was wise to sign WR Mike Williams to a contract extension, keeping the Chargers’ receiving corps intact for the near future.
Given the quality of quarterbacks in the division, I think the Chargers will find themselves in quite a few high-scoring games. That’s even more reason to like the over in Herbert’s passing yardage prop. I see him easily going over this number.
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