In what will be one of the most important dates on the 2023 calendar for the Houston Rockets, the NBA holds its annual draft lottery on Tuesday night from the league’s draft combine in Chicago. The event finalizes the first-round pick order for the June 22 draft.
After finishing with the league’s second-worst record (22-60) in the 2022-23 regular season, the Rockets have the maximum odds for a top selection. However, those odds are not as strong as they used to be, thanks to the NBA’s revised lottery weighting percentages — which are aimed at reducing tanking schemes for higher draft picks.
The lottery determines the top-four picks among the NBA’s 14 non-playoff teams, with the rest slotted by record. Even if they don’t win a lottery pick, Houston cannot fall below No. 6 overall, since they can be no worse than second-worst among the other 10 teams.
So, will the Rockets land a lottery pick that puts them in a position to draft an elite prospect such as France’s Victor Wembanyama or Alabama’s Brandon Miller? Read on for details of what to watch for, along with timing considerations and other relevant information.
When and How to Watch
Rockets representatives in Chicago
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Drawing room representative: Clay Allen, general counsel
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On-stage representative: Ime Udoka, head coach
On each of the four lottery picks, Allen will watch an NBA staffer pull out four ping-pong balls from a hopper. Each ball has a number on it. Houston will hold 140 out of 1,001 potential combinations, and the team with the matching four-digit combination earns each pick.
A team cannot win twice. Thus, if a franchise that hypothetically received the No. 1 pick was again drawn for No. 2, that result would be ignored and another drawing would be held for that pick.
Probability odds for Houston’s first-round pick
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No. 1: 14.0%
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No. 2: 13.4%
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No. 3: 12.7%
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No. 4: 12.0%
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No. 5: 27.8%
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No. 6: 20.0%
(Pick odds via Tankathon)
Projected order of teams prior to lottery
Based on 2022-23 season records, the number of lottery combinations assigned to each team is as follows: Detroit (140), Houston (140), San Antonio (140), Charlotte (125), Portland (105), Orlando (90 ), Indiana (75), Washington (60), Utah (45), Dallas (30), Chicago (20), Oklahoma City (15), Toronto (10), and New Orleans (5).
Consensus top prospects
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Victor Wembanyamabig, France’s Metropolitans 92
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Scoot Hendersonguard, NBA G League Ignite
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Brandon Millerforward, Alabama
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Amen Thompsonguard, Overtime Elite
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Ausar Thompsonwing, Overtime Elite
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Jarace Walkerforward, Houston
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Cam Whitmoreforward, Villanova
Check out Tankathon’s latest 2023 NBA draft big board for statistics and additional information on these prospects and beyond.
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Story originally appeared on Rockets Wire