The NHL has served up a 13-game slate on Thursday night, and there are a few betting opportunities worth exploring, starting with a pesky underdog on the road in Minnesota. We’ve got two moneyline bets and a player prop tonight – let’s take a look at the slate:
Seattle Kraken vs. Minnesota Wild
The Kraken may be flying under the radar a bit for a couple of reasons. For one, they were terrible last season. And two, their 5-4-2 record and even goal differential isn’t anything to write home about. But if you look under the hood, there’s a lot to like about Seattle’s start to the season.
Seattle ranks 10th in shot attempt rate, ninth in expected goal share, and 16th in high-danger chance percentage through their first 11 games and has played a relatively tough schedule, so it’s not like the numbers are inflated because of the quality of competition.
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Minnesota’s 5-on-5 numbers are just about inline with the Kraken’s — the Wild rank 18th in shot attempt rate, 12th in expected goal share, and 13th in high-danger chance percentage — but that’s a bit concerning for a team that is normally quite good at controlling play at even strength.
What’s more worrisome, however, is the play of Marc-Andre Fleury in goal for the Wild. The 37-year-old has posted an .893 save percentage and a -2.94 Goals Saved Above Expected in eight games this season.
The Wild have a game-breaking offensive talent in Kirill Kaprizov, but their offensive depth is lacking, and they’re not built to outscore poor goaltending.
Kraken vs. Wild pick
Kraken ML +146 (FanDuel)
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
If these two teams were in form and 100% healthy, there’s a very solid argument to be made that the Lightning should be favorites at home. But right now, it’s a bit rich considering how these two teams are currently operating.
While the Hurricanes are once again a 5-on-5 juggernaut — they are first in shot attempt percentage (63.5%), third in expected goals rate (60.5%), and high-danger scoring chance percentage (61.4%) — the Lightning are playing like an average team at even strength. The Bolts rank 15th in shot share, 18th in expected goals rate, and 11th in high-danger chance percentage.
And it makes sense that the Bolts have struggled to really sink their teeth into this season. Tampa lost key pieces (Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh, and Jan Rutta) during the offseason and is still trying to find the right combinations in the middle of its roster.
The fact that Tampa is 6-4 and riding a three-game winning streak despite these pedestrian numbers is impressive, but it’s also providing some value on the Hurricanes, who are the better team at this junction.
Hurricanes vs. Lightning pick
Hurricanes ML (+100, BetMGM)
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New York Islanders vs. St. Louis Blues
It’s been a funny start to the season for Mathew Barzal.
Everything from the eye test to his underlying numbers look great, and he’s producing a point per game, but he’s yet to break his duck in the goal department for the season. Barzal has no goals and 10 assists in 10 games for the Islanders, who surprisingly lead the NHL with 3.56 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
It’s not for a lack of trying. Barzal ranks fourth on the Islanders with 27 shots on goal, and he’s racked up 11 high-danger scoring chances, so eventually, these shots will start falling.
The Isles offense seems to be humming along, and Barzal is playing his part, so take advantage of this number before he gets hot.
Islanders vs. Blues pick
Mathew Barzal Anytime Goalscorer (+280, FanDuel)
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