‘Tis the season to be jolly — Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la… But what if you’re from the Grinch clan? Bah, humbug. We here at The Athletic do not discriminate and are equal opportunity writers. As a result, this piece will focus on both the good and the bad, but for what you say? Like any Christmas present, you must tear off the wrapping!
While playing time and player talent are the foundations of fantasy basketball, game environments and matchups are variables that should not be overlooked.
Stanta Claus has donned the red suit, eaten enough to make the belly protrude out and taped a beard to his smooth Asian face in order to deliver the goodies. Have you been naughty or nice? It doesn’t matter because Santa Claus loves all his children! Enjoy!
OFFENSIVE PACE
Pace is the number of possessions a team has per game. The more, the merrier. Ho! Ho! Ho!
If that doesn’t register, imagine that you’ve walked into a bar and the owner says that your drinks will be free if you’re able to hit the target on the wall. There are three trays on the table in front of you. The left tray has one dart. The middle tray has three darts. The right tray has 20 darts. You’re picking the right tray. Duh!
Are you guaranteed to hit the target with 20 darts? Niet, but the probabilities are certainly increased.
Per NBA.com, the Los Angeles Lakers play at the fastest pace, averaging 103.04 possessions per game. The Milwaukee Bucks are 15th at 100.04. Below are the top 10 teams that often provide good environments for fantasy:
Here are the bottom 10 teams in pace:
Last season, the Bucks were third in pace, so they’ve surprisingly toned things down a bit this season. So have the Rockets, as they were second in pace.
The biggest change, though, has occurred in Phoenix, as they played at the eighth-fastest pace last season but are in the bottom 10 this season. The Magic were 10th last season and are 21st this season. They essentially played with no point guard for a big part of the season, so that’s not surprising. Since Markelle Fultz has returned, that number has ticked up to 18th.
The Hornets were in the middle of the pack earlier in the season, but have cracked the Top 10. With LaMelo Ball back, they will likely be a Top 5 team in terms of pace.
The Celtics, Jazz and Pelicans have ramped up their offense this season, as they sit at 11th, 13th and 14th, respectively. Last season, they were 21st, 23rd and 24th.
The Mavericks, Heat, Cavaliers and Raptors are perennial slogs.
D-FENCE!
Pace is just one variable of the matrix. Let’s take a trip back to our bar. You’ve picked out your favorite dart from the basket of 20. After getting into optimal throwing position, you cock your wrist back once, you cock your wrist back twice then… the humongous bouncer who was guarding the front door steps into your line of vision and stands there with his arms crossed. Your task just got much more difficult. Now imagine if the owner swaps the basket of 20 darts with the basket of one dart.
Here are the teams that are bottom 10 in pace while being top 10 in defensive rating according to NBA.com:
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Miami Heat
- Philadelphia 76ers
- Los Angeles Clippers
The Knicks and Suns are both right on the cusp.
Can a player have a great game against one of these teams? Any given Sunday. Oops, wrong sport. Of course they can. Good offense usually beats good defense. Plus, there are so many variables that go into a game. Did one of the teams hit the club the night before? Is there a virus going around? Second leg of a back-to-back? Problems at home? Injuries, fatigue, etc.
Back to our bar. Would it be impossible to hit the target with a dart while the bouncer is blocking it? Nope, but he sure makes it more difficult.
Here are the teams that play fast and loose, making matadors proud (Top 10 in pace while being bottom 10 in defensive rating):
- Golden State Warriors
- San Antonio Spurs
- Charlotte Hornets
The Kings are right on the cusp (fourth in pace and 20th in defensive rating).
Back at the bar, not only has the bouncer moved to the side, but he is whispering sweet words of encouragement into your ear while writing on a napkin an order for your favorite snack and drink to be prepared immediately.
Translation: play your dudes against these teams.
MATCHUPS
Analyzing matchup data for basketball is tough because the game has gone more positionless and offenses hunt for mismatches with screens. In addition, there are multiple transition possessions that end up with cross matches. That said, there are some tools that provide a general lay of the land when it comes to specific matchups.
My favorite one is the Defensive Efficiency Matchup tool over at PaydirtDFS.com. This tool normalizes stats for each category based on the accumulation of minutes and comparing it to the league average. The data below comes from there.
From a macro perspective, the teams that allow the most Fantasy Points Per Minute above league average are:
The Lakers, Hornets and Pistons aren’t surprising here, but the Hawks are, especially since they are 13th in defensive rating.
The teams that are toughest:
- New York Knicks
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Brooklyn Nets
Knicks are ninth, Cavs are first and Nets are 12th in defensive rating. They are all in the bottom third for pace.
Let’s break it down by statistical category.
POINTS
The Lakers and Hornets are the most generous. No surprises here.
The Knicks, Grizzlies and Cavs are the toughest. Memphis is fifth in defensive rating and the only team that is Top 10 in both pace and defensive rating.
REBOUNDS
The Celtics, Thunder, Hawks and Pacers provide the biggest boost in rebounds above the league average. I have a not-so-sneaky suspicion that Robert Williams and Al Horford playing more will have an impact for Boston.
The Knicks, Cavaliers, Nets and Nuggets neutralize the most.
ASSISTS
The Hornets and Nuggets provide the biggest boost. Denver is a surprising 23rd in defensive rating after being 15th last season. They added some new pieces and have players returning from injury, so as they gel, they should get better on the defensive end.
The Knicks, Nets, Celtics and Cavs are the toughest.
3-POINTERS
The Hornets and Warriors provide the biggest boost. Steve Clifford sure wishes he had hair to pull out. He’s a defensive-minded coach yet his squad is near the bottom of most categories.
The Knicks, Magic and Clippers neutralize the best. On the flip side, Tom Thibodeau is like a kid in any room with a bouncy house and slide. The Knicks are ninth in defensive rating and sit at 18-15 on the season, good for sixth in the Eastern Conference.
STEALS
The Nuggets and Lakers allow the most steals above the league average.
The Hornets, Raptors and Knicks neutralize the most.
BLOCKS
The Magic, Hawks, Celtics and Pistons boost the blocking prowess.
The Timberwolves, Raptors and Nets neutralize the best.
PaydirtDFS.com breaks things down further by position, so I highly recommend that you check it out.
NBA.com has so much information that it makes my head hurt at times. Need 3-pointers and contemplating who to pick up and stream? Go to the Defense Dashboard and see that the Rockets allow the most 3-pointers per game. But in terms of efficiency, it’s the Spurs who allow a 39.3% conversion rate from downtown.
The Jazz allow the most shots within six feet of the basket, but are seventh-best in conversion rate. They give up the fewest 3-pointers and are eighth-best in percentage allowed. That makes total sense as their scheme is set up that way. We can use that to our advantage for fantasy.
The Bucks have built their defense around protecting the paint — THIS IS OUR HOUSE! As a result, they used to allow the most 3-pointers in the league. After getting torched by the Warriors over the years, Mike Budenholzer has tweaked his scheme to stay more attached to shooters on the perimeter. The Bucks now allow the 24th most 3-pointers, after being second last season.
Matchups matter. Are they the end all, be all? Of course not, but breaking them down can skew the probabilities in our favor. As with any other piece of information out there.
Fantasy basketball is littered with variance and luck, especially of the injury variety. We have no control over those, so don’t spend emotional capital tilting over them. Focus on what we can control: grinding the waiver wire, setting lineups and soaking in as much information as possible to guide us in selecting the right players to utilize.
Hopefully, this piece also showed that looking at team dynamics and macro factors can be of benefit as well.
(Top photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports)
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