We are reaching the point in the NFL season where we’ve started to see enough to change our minds.
Six weeks’ worth of games (almost) in the books, and some of our overreactions and non-overreactions are starting to calcify in terms of legitimacy. You can tell me the Ravens are going to be fine after they blow a big second-half lead, maybe even two. But blow one in Week 6 against the Giants, and I’m going to start to worry.
Conversely, you can tell me the Giants aren’t for real after they beat the Bears to go to 3-1, but when they follow that up with wins against the Packers and the Ravens to go to 5-1, I’m not quite sure I agree with you on your police work.
Jets for real? Could be. Vikings for real? Looking like it. Bucs in trouble? Entirely possible. Niners just average with Jimmy Garoppolo back at QB? Well, we might have gotten that one right.
But the one that’s sticking out to me is those Packers. This is a team I’ve kind of stood behind since training camp, buying what Green Bay was selling about how the offense would need time but would eventually come together around Aaron Rodgers. I figured that while that happened, the Packers would be carried by a strong defense and improved special teams.
To this point, they’ve showcased neither of those things. Green Bay has allowed 24, 27 and 27 points, respectively, over the past three weeks to the Patriots, Giants and Jets — all of whom are playing well and deserve credit but don’t stand out as unstoppable offenses. The Pack gave up a touchdown on a blocked punt Sunday, bringing back painful memories of the way their 2021 season ended in the playoffs against the Niners. And no, the offense still doesn’t have anything going and doesn’t look like it’s getting any better.
So, we begin the Week 6 overreactions column with the Packers, and their failure to justify my faith in them. I’m about ready to say I was wrong.
The Packers are in danger of missing the playoffs
Look, in no way does it detract from what the Giants and Jets have done so far to say that these are the kinds of games the Packers need to win if they consider themselves a Super Bowl contender. They blew a second-half lead to the Giants last week, and they really never felt like a legitimate threat to win Sunday’s home game against the Jets. The 107 points the Packers have scored so far this season is the fewest they’ve scored in any six-game stretch with Aaron Rodgers as their starting quarterback. They just look lifeless right now, and that Week 1 loss to the division-rival Vikings looks more and more damaging with Minnesota sitting at 5-1 while Green Bay languishes at 3-3.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
First off, they’re going to have to play considerably better than they have so far if they want to get back in their division race. Second, their schedule is not about to do them any favors. They still have road trips to Buffalo, Philadelphia and Miami to contend with. They have home games against the Cowboys, Titans and those same Vikings who beat them in Week 1. The NFC, which looked in the preseason like a weak enough conference to keep the Packers afloat even if they did struggle early, is littered with surprises early contenders like the Giants, Falcons and Seahawks. The Packers have lost no more than four games in any of Matt LaFleur’s three seasons as their head coach, and this year they’ve already lost three with 11 to go. They need to improve — fast — and perhaps the most alarming thing about what’s going on in Green Bay is that they don’t seem to be. If anything, they seem to be getting worse.
The Jets will have both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year
Jets fans were overwhelmingly happy with the team’s draft back in early May, but we all know those instant draft evaluations aren’t always on the money. So far, the rookies are a huge part of what the 4-2 Jets have done. Second-round running back Breece Hall had the first 100-yard rushing game of his career Sunday (and his second game in a row with 100 or more total scrimmage yards), and first-round cornerback Sauce Gardner is playing like a true shutdown corner. right out of the gate.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Gardner might need to collect a few interceptions to snag Defensive Rookie of the Year, since a lot of times that award goes to a guy with big numbers in that category or in sacks. But he has time to add to his total of one (assuming teams are willing to throw it in his direction). But Hall, in a year with no standout rookie quarterback, has to be the heavy favorite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award at this point. The team seems willing to give him more and more work by the week, and he’s rewarding that willingness. The Jets won this game Sunday despite going 1-for-11 on third down and racking up just 99 net passing yards, making them the first team in 10 years to win with fewer than two third-down conversions and fewer than 100 passing yards. How are they winning? By crushing it with Hall, refusing to turn the ball over and playing strong defense. Can it keep up? Who knows. But there is little to indicate otherwise.
Bailey Zappe should remain the Patriots’ starting quarterback even once Mac Jones is healthy
Zappe, the 2022 fourth-round rookie out of Western Kentucky, has started the past two Patriots games in place of the injured Jones, their 2021 first-round pick from Alabama. In those two games, the Patriots beat the Lions and the Browns by a combined score of 67-15. Also in those two games, Zappe has completed 74.5% of his passes, with three touchdowns and one interception. He also was 10-for-15 for 99 yards and a touchdown in relief of the injured Jones in the Week 4 overtime loss in Green Bay. The Patriots’ offense has started clicking the past three weeks, particularly in the run game. Whether that’s a coincidence or not is the question.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
Zappe certainly does not look as if the stage is too big for him, and that’s a great thing to know about your fourth-round rookie quarterback by mid-October. But it’s hard to pinpoint anything Jones did besides getting injured that should make this a question. The team is 1-3 in games Jones has started and 2-0 in Zappe’s starts, and surely many will make the pro-Zappe argument using those two small-sample stats. But Jones was a first-round pick — just 18 months ago — for a reason, and it would seem a little rash for New England not to put him back in there and at least find out whether the recent improvements in the run game and on defense can continue with Jones under center. Jones is going to need to play well to hold off this discussion, but it feels like he deserves a shot to get his job back with the team playing well.
The Bills and the Chiefs will meet again in the AFC Championship Game
I mean… we can only hope so, right? It’s must-see viewing when these two teams get together, and it was tense and dramatic again Sunday. Here’s all you really need to know: The Bills scored a touchdown with 1:04 left in the game to go up 24-20. I was on their sideline when it happened. You wouldn’t have known they’d just taken the lead. Sure, they were happy about the touchdown, but it was as if all eyes went to the game clock and all of the brains to which those eyes were attached had the same thought: “That’s too much time to leave [Patrick] Mahomes.” This time, though, it wasn’t. Taron Johnson intercepted Mahomes on the second play after the kickoff, and the Bills were able to kneel out the clock.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
It seems pretty clear, so far, that these two teams are the class of the AFC. The Bills are going to get a fight in their own division, sure. They’ve already lost to the Dolphins, and the Jets (!) are right behind them at 4-2. The Patriots are playing better, too. But the Bills should be the best team in that division, the Chiefs should be the best team in the AFC West and the other two AFC divisions look like messes. Anything can happen, but it would come as no surprise to see these two meet in the postseason for the third year in a row and the AFC title game for the second time in three years. Frankly, we should all be so lucky. The Bills just hope — and this might turn out to be the biggest impact Sunday’s game has — that their playoff game against the Chiefs is in Buffalo this year and not Kansas City for a change. This win also could go a long way toward helping the Bills secure the top seed in the AFC playoff field — no small thing in an era when only one team in each conference gets a bye.
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