Dan Campbell’s first full year as a head coach didn’t exactly go as planned. Bettors are expecting an award-worthy encore in 2022.
The Lions coach enters his second season as the clear betting favorite at BetMGM to win NFL Coach of the Year (+1000) after winning just three games in his first year in Detroit. He’s followed by a three-way tie at +1400 between first-time coaches Brian Daboll (Giants) and Kevin O’Connell (Vikings) and sophomore boss Brandon Staley (Chargers), who was the preseason favorite to win this award a year ago and is still the front-runner at some shops.
As we saw last year, that’s rarely advantageous in this market, which almost always rewards a long-shot coach that exceeds expectations. Still, bettors are flocking to the window to bet Campbell, who had drawn nearly a third of all bets for this award at BetMGM as of last week.
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We’ve got our eyes further down the board. Here are the preseason odds to win the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year and our favorite long-shot bets to win it:
2022 NFL Coach of the Year betting odds
| Dan Campbell | +1000 |
| Brian Daboll | +1400 |
| Kevin O’Connell | +1400 |
| Brandon Staley | +1400 |
| Nathaniel Hackett | +1600 |
| Doug Pederson | +1600 |
| Josh McDaniels | +1800 |
| Mike McDaniel | +2000 |
| Nick Sirianni | +2000 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +2000 |
| Frank Reich | +2000 |
| Matt LaFleur | +2000 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +2200 |
| John Harbaugh | +2500 |
| Mike Vrabel | +2500 |
| Sean McDermott | +2500 |
| Dennis Allen | +2500 |
| Ron Rivera | +2500 |
| Robert Saleh | +2500 |
| Sean McVay | +3000 |
| Todd Bowles | +3000 |
| Mike Tomlin | +3000 |
| Matt Eberflus | +3000 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | +3000 |
| Zac Taylor | +3000 |
| Bill Belichick | +4000 |
| Andy Reid | +4000 |
| Mike McCarthy | +4000 |
| Matt Rhule | +4000 |
| Lovie Smith | +5000 |
| Pete Carroll | +5000 |
| Arthur Smith | +5000 |
2022 NFL Coach of the Year long-shot picks and analysis
Josh McDaniels, Raiders (+1800)
We’ve seen this story before with McDaniels, who was among the hot names in the Coach of the Year market ahead of his first year with the Broncos. That ended in disaster, although there can only be so much blame at McDaniels’ feet with Kyle Orton as his quarterback.
I’d expect more success in McDaniels’ second stint as the head coach of this stacked Raiders team, which has the pieces to compete in a loaded AFC West. Las Vegas is dealing at +650 to win that division, which has belonged to the Chiefs in each of the last six seasons.
Even if you don’t love that price, there’s a clear disconnect between those odds and McDaniels’ odds in this market. If the Raiders end the Chiefs’ stranglehold on this division en route to their second straight playoff berth, McDaniels will get much of the credit as a first-year head coach. In a narrative-driven market, that’s mighty appealing.
John Harbaugh, Ravens (+2500)
There are two clear paths to winning this award. The most common one is to take the league by surprise. The other? Take it by force.
That’s the approach Harbaugh took to win this award in 2019, when his Ravens finished with the NFL’s best record (14-2) in Lamar Jackson’s MVP season. We’re high on Jackson’s chances of having a similar run in 2022, which would elevate this loaded Baltimore roster to another high seed in the AFC.
It helps that this team should finally be healthy, which wasn’t the case for last year’s 8-9 squad – only the second team with a losing record in Harbaugh’s 14-year tenure. Harbaugh has the rare opportunity to improve his team’s win total by five or six games and contend for a top seed, which makes him a dangerous name in this race.
Mike Tomlin, Steelers (+3000)
Few coaches are more revered in NFL circles than Tomlin, but the Steelers’ longtime leader has never won the Coach of the Year award. And it wouldn’t take much for him to finally win it this year.
Expectations are low for this Pittsburgh squad after longtime quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hung up his cleats this summer, leaving the Steelers to choose between Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph and Kenny Pickett as his replacement. That QB carousel has prompted books to price this team at 7.5 wins – the lowest for any playoff team from 2021.
Tomlin has never fielded a losing team in his 15 years in Pittsburgh, the longest streak to start a coaching career in NFL history. There’s sure to be plenty of media attention on whether that run stays alive this year, so even a pedestrian 9- or 10-win season would make Tomlin an attractive option for voters eager to deliver him that long-awaited hardware.
Betting on the NFL?
Matt Rhule, Panthers (+4000)
Look, I’m hardly sold on Rhule as a head coach in the NFL. But let’s not forget that Matt Nagy won this award in 2018, so elite coaching chops aren’t exactly a requirement in this market.
What I am sold on is the talent on this Panthers roster. Carolina’s defense quietly ranked second in yards allowed per drive in 2021, but a lousy offense gifted opposing teams with the best average field position in the league. Still, this team boasts two of the most dynamic players in the league in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore, and the offensive line should be much improved from a year ago.
The X-factor is at quarterback, where presumptive starter Baker Mayfield has a tailor-made chance to reinvent his career for a team with very low expectations. This team is dealing at roughly +400 odds to make the playoffs — a bet I’d gladly make — which would be a boon for Rhule’s candidacy in this market. This bet is as much about the team as it is about the coach, and at this price, there’s too much value to ignore.
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