White Sox first baseman José Abreu is on the verge of reaching free agency again, heading back to the open market once the offseason begins in November. He spoke to the media today and answered questions about his future, including one about whether he plans on returning to the field in 2023. “Of course, I love baseball,” Abreu said, as relayed by James Fegan of The Athletic. Abreu goes on to say that talks with the Chicago front office about a new contract have not taken place and that he will take some time to think about his next steps.
The fact that Abreu doesn’t want to rush this decision is fairly sensible, given that his previous foray into free agency was very brief. He was given a $17.8MM qualifying offer by the White Sox at the conclusion of the 2019 season and eventually accepted. One week later, he and the club agreed to a three-year, $50MM deal which replaced that QO. Instead, Abreu received a $5MM signing bonus, $11MM salary in 2020, $16MM in 2021 and $18MM in 2022.
That deal could hardly have gone much better for the club, with Abreu continuing to be an excellent hitter at that time. In the shortened 2020 season, he hit 19 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .317/.370/.617. That production was 64% better than league average by measure of wRC+ and Abreu earned American League MVP honors while helping the club make the postseason for the first time since 2008.
He couldn’t quite maintain that torrid pace over an entire season, but still had a great campaign in 2021. He launched another 30 long balls and slashed .261/.351/.481, wRC+ of 125. He sacrificed some power for average here in 2022 but still with great results overall. He’s gone over the fence 15 times so far while hitting .304/.378/.445 for a wRC+ of 137.
Given his continued production and strong reputation off the field as a clubhouse leader, it would be fairly logical for the Sox to want him back. However, there might also be a couple of factors working against that course of action. For one thing, there’s the team’s budget. The White Sox set a franchise record by running out an Opening Day payroll of $129MM in 2021, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but then vaulted way past that here in 2022 by getting to $193MM.
There’s already about $121MM committed to next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, but with some key expenses not yet factored in. Tim Anderson‘s $12.5MM option is a lock to be exercised while Lucas Giolito will get a raise via arbitration. He made $7.45MM this year and will likely get above eight figures for 2023. Those two contracts will get the club into the $145MM range while still not including arbitration salaries for Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech and others. If they’re willing to spend at a similar level this year, they could certainly fit in a contract for Abreu, although that would leave them with fewer resources to address other areas of need such as the pitching staff. Yesterday, general manager Rick Hahn told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times that the club was likely to be more active in the trade market than in free agency, seemingly a reflection of the club’s payroll situation.
There’s also the fact that the Sox have a potential in-house replacement for Abreu already on the roster in the form of Andrew Vaughn. He is in just his second season in the majors and has hit .273/.323/.433, producing a wRC+ of 115. That’s a bit below what Abreu has done in recent years, although Vaughn is still just 24 years old and could potentially still have room to grow.
There’s a big problem with Vaughn’s current role on the team, however, which is his glove. A first baseman in college and in the minors, Vaughn moved to the outfield due to Abreu already being entrenched as the team’s everyday option at first. The move has not suited Vaughn at all, as he has produced -16 Outs Above Average on the grass in 2022, the lowest mark of any outfielder in the league this year. His -10.4 Ultimate Zone Rating is also the lowest for an MLB outfielder on the season while his -14 Defensive Runs Saved is among the bottom five.
Due to that horrid work in the field, Vaughn is giving back all of his offensive production and then some. Despite being an above-average hitter, he’s actually been a sub-replacement level player this year, according to the calculations of FanGraphs. They say that Vaughn’s fWAR for the season is -0.4, while Baseball Reference has him at an even zero. Perhaps it’s worth it for the Sox to consider letting Abreu walk and moving Vaughn back to his natural position, as that would both allow Vaughn to become a more productive member of the team and also free up resources to address other areas of the roster.
Of course, the club could also consider re-signing Abreu and then trading Vaughn, although that path is a little less smooth. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at this year’s crop of free agent first basemen, with Abreu coming in at the top of the class alongside Josh Bell. Although Abreu is turning 36 in January, his continued success at the plate will surely lead to multi-year deals with a significant salary. Supposing Chicago does re-sign Abreu, they would then have to find a trade partner willing to give up cheap pitching for a first baseman, which may not be easy.
However it plays out, keeping the same arrangement in 2023 seems like something the Sox should avoid. Despite a roster loaded with talent, the club disappointed this year by slumping to an 80-80 record so far and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Defense was likely a big factor, as the team-wide DRS of -32 is one of the five worst in the league, their -16 OAA one of the ten worst and their -41.1 UZR dead last.
.