The Winnipeg Jets are in a surprising battle with the Dallas Stars atop the NHL’s Central Division. Coming into the season, Winnipeg was expected to be a playoff bubble team and projected to finish behind Colorado, Minnesota, Dallas, and St. Louis. Forty-five games into the campaign, however, the Jets have established themselves as a legitimate contender in the Western Conference.
The knee-jerk reaction to that unexpected surge is to argue that this is a mediocre team being propped up by elite goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck. That may have been accurate about the Jets in seasons past, but there’s much more to this team than just an all-world netminder.
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Jets vs. Maple Leafs prediction (7 p.m. ET)
Winnipeg’s statistical portfolio isn’t eye-popping, but the Jets are above 50 percent in shot-attempt rate, expected-goals percentage and high-danger scoring chance percentage at 5-on-5. That is a vast improvement from where they were the last two seasons.
And because they have an elite goalie and high-end finishers in their top six, the Jets don’t need to dominate the puck at 5-on-5. They just need to avoid getting caved in and allow their talent to win them 50/50 contests.
Betting on the NHL?
The Jets will head to Toronto as underdogs, but this is a decent time to take on the Maple Leafs. Toronto’s goaltending has struggled, and its 5-on-5 numbers have been trending down since the holiday break.
The gap between these two teams right now just isn’t as wide as the odds suggest.
Jets vs. Maple Leafs pick
Jets moneyline (+145, BetMGM)
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