Two NHL teams in miserable form will meet in Ottawa on Wednesday night. The New York Islanders, desperate to end a five-game losing streak and head into the All-Star Break with some momentum and belief that they can fight their way back into the playoff mix, are a road underdog against the Ottawa Senators, who are looking to turn around a 1-4 slide.
Does either side represent a good buy-low value on Wednesday night?
Islanders vs. Senators prediction (7 p.m. ET., ESPN+)
It seems like it’s been the same story for a couple of seasons for the Senators under DJ Smith. Ottawa’s statistical profile isn’t terrible, but the team is, once again, out of the playoff hunt by the All-Star Break.
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In previous campaigns, this was to be expected. Still, this time around, there were legitimate expectations for the Senators thanks to a splashy summer that saw them add Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat. A playoff spot may have been asking too much, but this team was supposed to be in the mix until the business end of the schedule.
Still, you can say the Senators deserve to be a bit higher up in the standings. Ottawa’s -35 goal differential at 5-on-5 is the fourth-worst mark in the NHL, but their expected goal differential is actually +8.3, which tells you that this team has not been getting the rub of the green when it comes to puck luck.
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Ottawa is shooting just 6.1% at 5-on-5 through 46 games, which is easily the worst mark in the league. Teams go through shooting slumps, but they have a talented group of scorers, making it even more bewildering to see them struggling this much. To compound that issue, Ottawa’s goaltending has also been below average and ranks 19th in overall save percentage (.896), and 28th in 5-on-5 save percentage (.904).
The Islanders, meanwhile, just can’t find the back of the net. They have scored just 17 times in their last 10 games and have not scored a third-period goal since January 3rd. Everyone knew the margin for error was thin with this group of forwards, but this is on another level. The Islander power play is also mired in a 3-for-53 slump since Dec. 10.
It’s hard to trust either of these teams right now, but at least the Senators are doing a decent job of limiting scoring chances. Ottawa ranks inside the top-10 in preventing high-danger scoring chances this season, while the Isles are 28th overall. Ilya Sorokin is a terrific goaltender, but that kind of defense will catch up to any netminder, especially with a team that can’t score.
The Sens should have enough firepower to put the Isles away by multiple goals on Wednesday night.
Islanders vs. Senators pick
Senators -1.5 (+205, BetMGM)
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