The six-game Red Sox winning streak ended on Wednesday night in extra innings vs. the Twins, giving us another data point in a topsy-turvy season.
The Red Sox started 21-14. (That’s good!) Then they went 12-21. (That’s bad!) Then they won six in a row. (That’s good!). Now we wait to see what comes next. (Can I go now?)
The question on everyone’s mind during the first and third stretches was the same: Is it sustainable? And here’s my unfortunate answer: I don’t think so.
First off, these winning streaks did nothing more than land the Red Sox in a familiar spot of last place, where they have spent the majority of the season. While it’s true that their record (39-36) would lead the America League Central, it’s also true that they’re currently looking up at not only the rest of their division in the wild card race, but also the Rangers, Astros, and Angels. They rank eighth out of 15 teams in the American League, and it’s really kinda ninth, since someone from the Central will make the playoffs.
Ask me today which AL teams will absolutely, positively finish behind the Red Sox in the standings and I can only name four: the A’s, Royals, White Sox, and Tigers. The Mariners made the playoffs last year and have underachieved. The Guardians always seem to find their footing under manager Terry Francona. The Twins can pitch.
The Red Sox have surprised us with a deep lineup and a pitching staff that has just barely managed to find a way, anchored at the top by youngster Brayan Bello and at the back by veteran Kenley Jansen. But there’s reason to believe their success stands on an unstable base.
Left-hander Chris Sale has already suffered his inevitable injury, this time a broken shoulder blade, requiring a trip to the 60-day IL. Meanwhile, the Red Sox received some awful luck when young right-hander Tanner Houck fractured his cheek after being drilled by a line drive. He’ll undergo surgery next week to have a plate inserted in his face, which in addition to sounding wildly unpleasant, robs the Red Sox of one of their most promising arms.
They’re leaning heavily on left-hander James Paxton, who has been outstanding in his return to Big Maple form, going 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA while recording swings and misses galore. The 34-year-old is bringing it, but he has already made more starts this year (7) than the previous three combined (6). He has never made 30 starts or thrown 161 innings in a season, and like Sale, he is an injury waiting to happen. The Red Sox should ride him while they can, but his history suggests they shouldn’t count on him long-term.
Add the fact that durability hasn’t exactly been Whitlock’s strong suit as a member of the rotation, and you have the recipe for multiple bullpen games and openers, which is no way to make the playoffs, particularly since the Red Sox aren’t blessed with a ton of big-league-ready depth in the upper minors. There’s a reason they handed the ball to Matt Dermody despite a history of questionable tweets, and it’s because they had nowhere else to turn.
Offensively, they’ve cycled through the extremes. During their six-game winning streak, they scored 50 runs, an average of more than eight a game. During the 12-21 stretch that preceded it, they were held to three runs or fewer 19 times.
Their best hitters have been, in order, newcomer Masataka Yoshida, right fielder Alex Verdugo, veteran Justin Turner, and young surprise Jarren Duran. Turner’s the only one with a track record of season-long production, and at age 38, it’s fair to ask how well he’ll hold up, especially if manager Alex Cora asks him to play more in the field.
Yoshida has been a revelation, but let’s see how he feels in August after five months of constant pounding against the unforgiving MLB schedule that will ask him to play anywhere from 20-40 more games than he was accustomed to in Japan. Verdugo seems like he has finally figured it out, but we’ve said this about him before. As for Duran, he’s only a few games removed from hitting .150 for nearly a month. If there’s a reason to hope, it’s that All-Star slugger Rafael Devers really hasn’t gotten untracked yet.
Defensively, the Red Sox continue to pray that Trevor Story can be the savior, but there’s no guarantee he’ll have the arm strength following modified Tommy John surgery to play an everyday shortstop. And with catcher Reese McGuire presumably headed for the injured list after straining on an oblique on Wednesday night, the catching depth will be sorely tested behind starter Connor Wong.
Add the fact that so much rests on Jansen’s creaky back and knees continuing to dominate the ninth inning, and that’s too much uncertainty for my tastes, especially in a loaded division. The Red Sox have done well to stay so close to contention, never saying die with 23 come-from-behind victories.
But the question isn’t what we think of their season so far. It’s whether or not it’s sustainable, and unfortunately, my answer is no.