We’ve had less than 24 hours to make Chiefs vs. Eagles predictions, and the Super Bowl betting markets are already going crazy.
The spread opened Chiefs -1 (-110) and the public jumped at it, moving the number all the way to Eagles -2.5 (-110) before settling around Eagles -2 (-110).
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When betting on the NFL, it’s important to take advantage of early market movements to find discrepancies.
I’ve found value in the Super Bowl thanks to the public money pushing the betting line out of whack.
Spread: Chiefs +2 (-110) vs. Eagles -2 (-110)
Moneyline: Chiefs (+110) vs. Eagles (-130)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs +2 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
The market is way overvaluing the Eagles here. And it’s also a huge red flag that the public immediately jumped on the Eagles, and I’m happy to fade the public in the most efficient betting market in the world.
The NFC was not a strong conference this season, so the Eagles haven’t been tested. By Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, the Eagles have played the easiest schedule in the NFL.
That was proven over the past two weeks when the Eagles had arguably the easiest path to the Super Bowl in NFL history.
Meanwhile, the Eagles haven’t passed every test this season.
Per Anthony Dabbundo of The Action Network, the Eagles played exactly three quarterbacks who finished in the top 10 in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play this season. First, the Eagles allowed 35 points to Jared Goff and the Lions, then 40 points to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, and the Eagles shut down Trevor Lawrence, but bad weather played a big part.
The Eagles will now have to compete with the Chiefs’ top-ranked offense run by one of the most talented quarterbacks in NFL history. And the Chiefs are catching points, which I find ridiculous.
The worry is that the Eagles will run all over the Chiefs, but Kansas City’s run defense has trended up in the second half of the season. Meanwhile, Mahomes might throw for 400 yards on a tremendously overrated defense.
Ultimately, this is a case of the wrong team being favored. I would definitely make the Chiefs a favorite in Super Bowl 57.
I would immediately bet the Chiefs +2 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook. However, I would consider buying out later if the Chiefs’ injury issues look like they’re getting worse.