Division races! Awards! The World Series! As MLB Heads Into Its Final Month, Here’s What CODE Bet’s Looking At
This MLB season has been more unpredictable than a 3-year old with a chainsaw: at various points the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, LA Dodgers and New York Mets have all looked like they would run away from the competition. Meanwhile, the St Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox have been either lurking, lost, reignited or righting the ship.
But that’s why they play the games.
Because at various points recently the Yankees, Mets and Astros have also had their hiccups.
It’s also the beauty of a 162-game season. An injury or two here, a form-slump there, a trade not working out the way you expected, and bam: you’re scrapping to not only win your division, but maybe also trying to hold on for a playoff wildcard berth.
So, heading into the final month of the MLB season, what are the things to look for, in terms of betting MLB’s regular season home stretch?
CHAOS DIVISION
First off are the division races: While the NY Yankees (AL East), Astros (AL West) and LA Dodgers (NL West) have sewn up their divisions like an over-eager Grandma, there’s plenty of movement and value in the remaining three division races.
In the NL Central, the Cardinals (1.20) took a series from Milwaukee (1.83) at the end of August, rode an emotional home run splurge from all-time great Albert Pujols, won 10 of 11 and now look like they’ll cruise to the Division.
BUT, how about the AL Central? The Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox are in a battle royale for the division crown. In terms of their remaining strength of schedule the White Sox (17th), Guardians (20th) and Twins (21st) are all sitting in a roughly similar position, but the run differential tells a different story, with Cleveland and Minnesota plus-29 and plus-32, and the White Sox at a rough minus-28.
The most fascinating might be the NL East, where the Mets (1.14) will spend the month trying to hold off the reigning champion Braves ($4.33). With a substantially easier home run (10th vs 22nd) you’d back the Mets to keep their lead…. But then, they ARE the Mets. Trying to predict what they might do is like predicting what the driver of that lowered red Mazda 323 in front of you on the highway will do. Do 140? Change lanes? Do a flip? Who knows! They’ve lowered a 323: anything is on the table.
So, if you trust the Braves more than the Mets NOT really Mets-ing this up, it wouldn’t be a surprise.
ANYWAY.
THE BIG ONE – THE WORLD SERIES
After the division races waits the big kahuna itself: the World Series.
While there are four VERY clear favorites at the moment, with the Dodgers, Astros, Mets and Yankees possessing odds under $6.50, it means if you can find a winner outside of that group, there will be plenty of value.
The Dodgers have been, understandably, heavy favorites all season: the 2020 Champs have a line-up with superstars at almost every position, an imposing pitching staff, and a manager with World Series pedigree in Dave Roberts. Heading into the final month they’ve won 89 games already, so it’s no surprise they’re $3.60 favourites.
The Astros land at $5, the Yankees at $5.25, and the Mets at $6.50… But even this far out those prices heading into the last month of the regular season aren’t great value, because of the sheer variability of not only the rest of the season, but the MLB playoffs in general.
That’s why a team like the Braves ($9) or Cardinals ($21) who might get hot (hotter, in the case of St Louis) in the last few weeks and make a run look like good value.
Or, if you think the Yankees bats can recapture their early-season form, if they’re sitting above $5 at any point, it’s worth a look.
Still: with pricing hovering around $4-5 for the World Series with a month to play, confidence in those top teams is sky high to make it. It all depends on which team not only has the best/deepest roster, but as we see almost each and every year, also gets hot.
At the same time: the Dodgers at $3.60 with those bats and that pitching? It’s not great value, but the way they’re playing it might be worth a look anyway.
AWARDS
AL & NL MVPs
All rise: the AL MVP is Aaron Judge’s to lose, and that there aren’t many markets even still offering it reflect that. Shoehai Otani is routinely doing things that haven’t been done for literally decades, and it doesn’t seem to matter. Barring anything miraculous, Judge will walk away with this one.
In the NL though, there’s a little bit more of interest: Paul Goldschmidt might be the favourite, but there’s a group behind him consisting of Austin Riley, Freddie Freeman, Nolan Arenado all sitting at 8-1 that could easily make a run over the next month.
CY YOUNG
The award for best pitcher in either league also gives us some extremely short-priced favorites in the AL with Justin Verlander at $1.25 and Dylan Cease at $5.50 – look to Verlander to wrap that up, despite Cease’s home run – while the NL has Sandy Alcantara 1.20 favorite WELL ahead of Corbin Burnes ($8) and Zack Wheeler ($22), meaning there’s not much value there at all.
ROOKIES OF THE YEAR
Should you back the NL’s Spencer ‘Aragorn’ Strider ($1.40) and the AL’s Julio Rodriguez ($1.25), the wildly short-priced favourites? Maybe! If you don’t think Adley Rutschman ($4) or Michael Harris ($2.20) can pip Strider and Rodriguez respectively.
(Check out our extended guide to the MLB awards race here.)
GAME-TO-GAME ODDS
The very best part of the final month of any MLB season is the rush towards the pointy end of the season: playoff baseball.
As teams load up and make that final push for the division race or securing a wild card, each game for those teams gets super important, and match-ups become crucial. SO. When betting game to game, we’re going to be looking at strength of schedule and pitching; that allows us to lean on teams with better pitching staffs, especially as the weather in the USA gets colder, and as they hit some easier competition.
The Yankees will be trying to figure out what’s ailed them since the trade deadline, have huge bats that could awaken at any time, and boast pitching that should be able to keep them in the hunt… but they’ve also struggled all year against the spread. Look for that to continue.
In terms of obvious picks: the Mets pitching staff is one of the best in the business, and we’ll lean heavily on all Scherzer and DeGrom games (as long as DeGrom actually gets some run support), while the Cardinals are getting hot at the exact right time, but will still need to scrap and fight the rest of the season to hold off Milwaukee. They also have the 3rd weakest remaining strength of schedule, with a litany of games against teams well off the pace. We’ll be heavy on the Cards.
The other two teams to keep an eye on game-to-game are two other teams in the Playoff/Wild Card hunt, AND who have easy schedules: the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox. Ironically, they play a series against each other Sep 5-7, but otherwise, they’ll spend plenty of time this month beating minnows. With pitching big names like Louis Castillo and Robbie Ray fronting the Mariners, and the White Sox witnessing a year for the ages from Cease, with steady backup from Johnny Cueto and Lucas Giolito, there’s a lot to like.
All odds from Bet 365 as of Aug 30
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