Do you remember Game 1 of the Clippers-Suns series, when Kawhi Leonard dropped 38 points and brought everyone back to 2019? We immediately reminisced about him dethroning the Golden State Warriors, who were without Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson due to injuries.
Those were fun times, but now it’s Leonard on the sideline and Durant reminding everyone it’s not 2019 anymore. The books opened the Suns as massive favorites in the series after they finished the regular season with an 8-0 record with Durant on the floor. The wide odds had some bettors wide-eyed after watching the Clippers take Game 1, but any value on the underdogs slowly dissipated once Leonard’s knee sprain became the major headline after Game 2.
The series is all but over as the teams travel back to Phoenix for Tuesday night’s game with the Suns holding a commanding 3-1 lead. Leonard remains sidelined, and money won’t stop pouring in on Phoenix to close the door on the Clippers with a gentleman’s sweep. You can bet the Suns as 13.5-point favorites at BetMGM. As somebody whose confidence never wavered on Phoenix in the series, laying 12-plus points in a close-out game isn’t going to get me out of bed, more or less to the betting window. I have better ideas on how to wager on the game. Here are four bets I placed over at BetMGM.
Phoenix Suns 1H under 58.5 (-120)
As talented as the Suns are, they sure like to scare us in the early parts of these games. The lack of continuity during the regular season may have played a role, but it may just be in their DNA. The Clippers haven’t trailed after the first quarter in any game in this series, and the Suns have only scored over 58.5 first-half points once (59). Los Angeles is clearly undermanned defensively without Kawhi, but I expect that to show more in the second half of the game if Phoenix can force the Clippers into foul trouble again. The Clippers understand they are playing with a very small margin of error, and I expect them to limit turnovers and win some loose balls early on. The Clippers’ season will likely end Tuesday night, but Westbrook will ensure they leave it on the floor and play with enough intensity to keep the Suns below this first-half total.
Devin Booker over 30.5 points (-120)
Booker has been a big beneficiary of Durant’s presence on the floor. Against a Clippers defense without Leonard or Paul George, he can capitalize on the clean looks consistently. In the last three games, the Suns guard averaged more than 37 points per game and hit 50% of his shots from beyond the arc. The Clippers tried to play more physically in Game 3 and got into early foul trouble. Tyronn Lue is an excellent coach, but I’m hard-pressed to find a defensive solution for the Clippers to defend the lethal combination of Durant and Booker. Both players will feast again, but I think Booker is more likely to have the biggest impact from a scoring perspective.
Russell Westbrook double-double (-140)
The Clippers are now Westbrook’s team, at least for Game 5. Westbrook has played honorably in a can’t-win situation, and with his back against the wall, I fully expect him to go out on his shield with the high-energy and effort he has played with throughout the series. That being said, it’s a real tough spot playing in Phoenix with the Suns motivated to end the series. Westbrook has two double-doubles in the first four games of the series, which has me thinking there is some value in his chances of pulling this off again. He is coming off a 37-point performance where he took 29 shots, one shy of doubling Norman Powell’s shot output. Westbrook isn’t the reason the Clippers are losing the series by any stretch, but I think Lue knows this isn’t a winning formula against a team like Phoenix. The Clippers’ coach stressed limiting turnovers, patience and improving shot selection in Game 5. Russ will get his points, but the stat sheet will be more balanced as his supporting cast gets plenty of opportunities to take on some of the scoring load.
Winning Margin – Suns by 6-10 (+400)
OK, let’s carve out a small stake of the bankroll and have some fun. This is obviously not a plus-EV wager and more of a recreational bet that lies on the higher side of the degen meter. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Suns covered the 12.5 points, as they certainly have the talent to blow out the Clippers on their home court. But I also can’t muster up the courage to bet on it happening.
I’m fully aware of the trends that show how frequently the favorites cover when winning the game outright in the NBA playoffs the past two years. However, this line was blown out due to the absence of Kawhi, and only one of the Suns’ three wins in this series was by more than 12 points. If the Suns fail to cover, I don’t think it’s because the game is particularly competitive until the end. NBA playoff games turn into foul fests late in the fourth quarter, and this one may follow that script. Throwing a small wager on the Suns winning by 6-10 points at +400 is an interesting way to play the Suns. They have been between 7.5- and 8.5-point favorites all series and are 2-2 ATS. Is it likely to hit? No, but that’s why we are getting four-to-one odds. I think it has a better than 20% chance to hit, so I will take the risk at +400.