Global food security and advances in green technology could be hampered by a predicted shortage of sulfuric acid, a crucial chemical in many modern industries.
The study from University College London finds that global demand for sulfuric acid is set to rise significantly from ‘246 to 400 million tonnes’ by 2040 – a result of more intensive agriculture and the world moving away from fossil fuels.
The researchers estimate that this will result in a shortfall in annual supply of between 100 and 320 million tonnes – between 40 and 130 per cent of current supply – depending on how quickly decarbonisation occurs.
A vital part of modern manufacturing, sulfuric acid is required for the production of phosphorus fertilizers that help feed the world, and for extracting rare metals from ores essential to the rapidly required green economy transition, like cobalt and nickel used in high-performance Li- ion batteries.
Currently, over 80 percent of the global sulfur supply is in the form of sulfur waste from the desulphurisation of crude oil and natural gas that reduces the sulfur dioxide gas emissions that cause acid rain.
However, decarbonisation of the global economy to deal with climate change will significantly reduce the production of fossil fuels – and subsequently the supply of sulphur.
The authors of the study said they were the first to identify this major issue and suggest that unless action is taken to reduce the need for this chemical, a massive increase in environmentally damaging mining will be required to fill the resulting resource demand.
Study lead author, professor Mark Maslin (UCL Geography), said: “Sulphur shortages have occurred before, but what makes this different is that the source of the element is shifting away from being a waste product of the fossil fuel industry.
“What we’re predicting is that as supplies of this cheap, plentiful, and easily accessible form of sulfur dry up, demand may be met by a massive increase in direct mining of elemental sulphur. This, by contrast, will be dirty, toxic, destructive, and expensive.
“Research is urgently needed to develop low-cost, low environmental impact methods of extracting large quantities of elemental sulfur from the abundant deposits of sulphate minerals in the Earth’s crust.
“The international community should consider supporting and regulating sulfur mining to minimize the impacts of the transition and also to avoid cheap unethical production from distorting the market.”
Study co-author Dr Simon Day (UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction) said: “Our concern is that the dwindling supply could lead to a transition period when green tech outbids the fertilizer industry for the limited more expensive sulfur supply, creating an issue with food production particularly in developing countries.”
To determine their findings, the researchers estimated three sulfuric acid demand scenarios from 2021 to 2040, based on historical and forecast demand, with annual growth rates ranging from 1.8 to 2.4 percent.
The authors also explore several ways that demand for sulfur could be reduced as part of the transition to post-fossil fuel economies, including recycling phosphorus in wastewater for the fertilizer industry, by increasing the recycling of lithium batteries, or by using lower energy capacity/ weight ratio batteries, as these require less sulfur for their production.
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