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Germán’s Perfect Game Is 1 in 10,000 for MLB: Data Viz

On Wednesday, New York Yankees pitcher Domingo German threw just the 24th perfect game in MLB history. It was unfortunate that the Yankees played in Oakland, because a feat that has been accomplished in just one out of every 9,822 games in MLB history was witnessed by a fanbase that ranks last in the league in attendance.

Germán’s perfect game was the first since Felix Hernandez’s in 2012. On the scale of baseball history, however, there have been more perfect games in recent decades, with half of all instances occurring since 1990. In fact, there were three perfect games thrown in 2012 alone, part of a four-season stretch in which there were six (a total that would have reached seven if not for a blown call that cost Armando Galarraga perfection).

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There are rarer achievements on the mound, however, one of which being striking out at least 20 batters in nine innings, which has been done just five times in MLB history, most recently by Max Scherzer in 2016. At the plate, especially, it it’s not hard to come up with less common events. For instance, just 18 players have ever hit four home runs in a single outing, making it rarer than a perfect game. Perhaps most remarkably, Fernando Tatís hit two grand slams in the same inning off the same pitcher in 1999, and he remains the only player to ever do so.

Still, the perfect game is one of the rarest feats in baseball. Witnessing a pitcher throw a no-hitter is 13 times more likely, and a batter hitting for the cycle has occurred about 14 times more frequently throughout MLB history than a perfect game.

Nowadays, fewer starting pitchers are hurling for all nine innings than in previous eras. In just the past 10 years, manager Dave Roberts has pulled two different pitchers—Rich Hill and Clayton Kershaw—after seven innings of perfection, which had never been done before, according to ESPN research. It could be a while before we see another 27 up, 27 down.

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