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If you’re new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I’m John Brubaker. I’ve been betting MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I’ve created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I’ll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, August 12, 2022. I’m continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I’ll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven’t already, and don’t hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all that said, let’s break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia’s 2022 MLB Betting Picks
- Season to Date: 50-55-2, -16.52 units
- Sides: 29-33-1, -14.45 units
- Totals: 20-22-1, -3.77 units
- Props: 1-0 +1.70 units
Today’s MLB Betting Picks – Padres @ Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: WSH +200
SD: Mike Clevinger | WSH: Cory Abbott
We’re back at it today after a 2-0 Sunday, hitting our first-inning under in both Detroit and New York. I’ll be looking at two more first-inning under plays tonight, starting off in the nation’s capital. The visiting “new-look” Padres will be sending Mike Clevinger (3-4, 3.60 ERA). Clevinger has been solid since returning from injury, particularly in the first inning. He’s held opponents off the scoreboard in the first inning in six of seven starts on the road, and in 11 of 12 starts overall.
On the other hand, the Nationals will be facing Juan Soto and Josh Bell for the first time after shipping them off to San Diego. They’ll be sending Cory Abbott (0-1, 5.68 ERA) to the hill. While the second-year righty has had some troubles in his first two starts, those troubles haven’t come in the first inning. He unraveled in the fourth inning against the Phillies on Sunday after scoring five shutout innings in his first start against the Mets. He’s a perfect 1-0 in regards to first-inning unders in DC and 2-0 overall.
Now I’m sure most are thinking that it will be tough for Abbott making just his third start of the year against this extremely dangerous Padres lineup. While that’s completely true, it should be mentioned that since acquiring Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury, the Padres have scored in just one first inning, which was their first game together. They’ve been held scoreless in the opening frame in seven straight and eight of their last ten overall. FanDuel Sportsbook is giving us the under at -106, while my model gives the under a 60.35% chance of hitting. We’re getting it at great value here and I would take it up to -152, but I doubt the number gets that high.
Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-106) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today’s MLB Betting Picks – Orioles @ Rays
O/U: 7.5 | Money line: TB -154
BAL: Austin Voth | TB: Corey Kluber
We’ll head down to St. Petersburg, Florida for our second first-inning under of the day. While we did get burned by the Orioles last Saturday on the first inning down, I’m willing to run it back tonight. The O’s will send Austin Voth (2-1, 5.53 ERA) to the mound. I mentioned this with Voth last Saturday, while his entire scope of work is nothing to be impressed with, he has been quite literally nothing short of perfect in the opening frame. He’s held opponents scoreless in each of his three starts on the road, and in all eight starts overall.
On the other hand, the Rays will send seasoned veteran and former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (7-6, 4.05 ERA) to the hill. While Kluber is no longer in pure “Cy Young winner” form, he is still formidable as a #4 starter for Tampa. As far as the first-inning goes, he’s allowed a tally in just two of ten starts at The Trop, and in just five of 21 starts overall.
While the O’s have been swinging it well early and often lately, scoring in five of their last ten first-innings, their overall scope of work on the season has not been great. They’ve scored in just 20% of first-innings on the road this season, and in just 19% overall. Conversely, the Rays have been a bit better, scoring in 33% of opening frames at home and 28% overall. They’ve been cold lately, though, scoring in just one first inning in their last ten games. FanDuel Sportsbook has the first inning under at -122, while my model has the line at -187. I’ll certainly be taking the value here.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-122) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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