Tom Brady announcing his retirement Wednesday does not come as the biggest shock. He turns 46 in August and would probably need to find a new team in a new city with new teammates to chase an eighth Super Bowl ring, given the state of his Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Still, if Brady was willing to work this hard for this long when he seemed to have every reason to walk away last offseason, my money was on Brady running it back one more time, especially with the we-are-a-quarterback-away San Francisco 49ers such a logical destination for him. He could still choose that path if the way he feels in March, May or June differs from the way he felt when recording what seemed to be a genuine, succinct announcement for release on his various social media accounts.
Brady has played so well for so long that it’s easy to overlook how much work goes into maintaining elite performance at his age. It’s the sort of all-consuming grind that must feel great to escape on the first day of February. It’s also all Brady has known for a long time. He might again crave that structure once weeks or months pass and various opportunities come his way.
As Brady himself noted in his video Wednesday, we all had time to celebrate his incredible career following his retirement last offseason. There’s no point in rerunning all the tributes.
The shifting offseason quarterback market is the most interesting aspect of this news. The Buccaneers, 49ers, Las Vegas Raiders and Aaron Rodgers could all feel the fallout. Here’s how.
Buccaneers: Brady retiring from the Buccaneers instead of changing teams in free agency helps the team from an accounting standpoint. There’s $35 million from his contract that must be accounted for under the salary cap. If Brady retires, the team could push $24 million of that into 2024. If Brady plays elsewhere, the full $35 million hits the books this year, which would be challenging for a team with a long list of free agents and difficult decisions looming.
Brady retiring could enable the Buccaneers and coach Todd Bowles to execute a more coherent offseason plan than the one they implemented last offseason. The 2022 offseason saw Brady announce his retirement and then return in mid-March, with coach Bruce Arians stepping into the front office a couple of weeks later. Bowles was certainly grateful for the opportunity to become head coach, but he inherited Arians’ staff, free agency was largely finished, and it was tougher putting his stamp on the team.
The Bucs appear headed for a rebuild. What kind of runway will Bowles get after taking over the Bucs at such an inopportune time? Arians got out at just the right time. Brady was one year too late. Bowles is left to deal with the aftermath.
The 49ers forced Tom Brady into two interceptions and a 63.7 QB rating in their matchup during the 2022 regular season. (Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
• 49ers: The 49ers became an obvious potential landing spot for Brady after their season ended with Brock Purdy suffering an elbow injury that could sideline him into training camp. Even if Purdy’s rehab outlook had been more promising, it was fair to question whether the 49ers could justify running it back with Purdy and Trey Lance.
This 49ers roster is stacked and ready to contend with running back Christian McCaffrey, receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, pass-rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner in their prime. Left tackle Trent Williams is still elite, but at age 34, his time could be running low.
Entrusting the championship hopes of such a loaded roster on a quarterback room featuring only Purdy and Lance, who have combined to finish eight of the 10 total career starts they have made, counting playoffs, could qualify as organizational malpractice.
Even if Brady’s skills had diminished, which can be debated, signing him would have signaled to the 49ers’ locker room that the team remains serious about winning it all. San Francisco made a similar statement by acquiring McCaffrey during the season. Signing Brady would have sent the same message, in an exponentially louder voice.
If Brady is out of the picture, do the 49ers ask Brady’s agent, Don Yee, whether he has any other clients who might be interested in helping out at the position? Yee does represent Jimmy Garoppolo, after all, and after Garoppolo acquitted himself so professionally under strange circumstances this past season, might he consider stepping back into the fold in the 49ers’ hour of need? Purdy and Lance would continue in their rehabs, returning whenever they are ready. In the meantime, Garoppolo would fit far better in San Francisco, where he is beloved in the locker room, than he would anywhere else.
If Brady’s retirement prevents San Francisco from realistically pursuing a top-tier quarterback, there is no better Tier 2-3 option than the one with a 42-19 (.689) starting record with the 49ers since 2017, including 7-3 last season. , before Garoppolo was injured.
• Raiders: Before the 49ers’ quarterback situation became such a concern, the Raiders were seen as the most logical destination for Brady if he decided to keep playing. Brady’s connection to Raiders coach Josh McDaniel, his former position coach and offensive coordinator in New England, made for an easy connection of dots, especially after Las Vegas benched Derek Carr.
• Aaron Rodgers: Removing Brady from the offseason quarterback market leaves Rodgers as the only future Hall of Fame passer with a chance to change teams. His appeal goes up, as does the appeal for every other starting quarterback who might change teams.
Rodgers and the Packers have reached a logical jumping-off point now that the team has faltered on the field enough for Green Bay to consider shifting towards a new era. Rodgers’ recent comments suggesting the Packers should re-sign various declining players who are his friends may not have excited the front office. There has never been a more logical time for a Rodgers divorce from the Packers.
There are some salary-cap and contractual issues complicating a Rodgers trade, but where there is a will regarding such things, there are multiple ways. The Packers might not be able to stomach sending Rodgers to an NFC rival as prominent as the 49ers, but who knows? It was notable this week when Rodgers told Pat McAfee that he wasn’t part of whatever conversations the Packers might be having at this early stage.
At the very least, Brady’s retirement means there is greater scarcity in the market, and perhaps one additional trading partner for the Packers, should they decide the time has come for a separation.
(Top photo: Logan Bowles via Associated Press)
.