It’s a new week in baseball, let’s get it started right with a few winning bets. There are just nine games on this Monday, but we’ve still found four prop plays worth a look.
Be sure to wait for lineup confirmations before locking in any bets.
Jose Abreu over 1.5 total bases (+105 FD)
Abreu and the White Sox will be hitting the field early this afternoon in the first game of the day, and instead of opting for his hits paired with another player, we’re taking his total bases at over 1.5.
The fundamental reason is Abreu’s .400 batting average against Kansas City started Daniel Lynch in 12 career plate appearances. Once we see that, we dive in and see that the White Sox slugger has 14 hits in his past eight games, which has helped him exceed this total bases line in seven of his last eight.
Abreu has a higher ISO and XBH/PA against lefties, which he’ll see with Lynch on the mound. The weather in Kansas City is also offering a slight 9% boost to extra base hits.
At +105, I’m willing to navigate into this market for a guy who has been red hot.
Mark Canha hit (-155 FD)
We switch from plus-money to a heavily-juiced play, but I’m risking 1u at this price for Mark Canha of the Mets to register a hit tonight.
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Canha has seen Yankees starter Domingo German 12 times in his career. He’s hitting an absurd .636 off him in those appearances, which could almost be enough reason to look to him today on its own.
The cherry on top is that Canha has 11 hits in his past eight games and is hitting .305 against RHP. This price feels terrific for the convergence of metrics we’re getting, and I’m drinking the juice because of it.
Parlay: Max Scherzer over 6.5 Ks, Jordan Montgomery over 4.5 Ks (+152 DK)
While I’d love to play both of these guys straight, the right play for me feels like a parlay.
We start with Scherzer, who will see a Yankees lineup that has struggled the last few weeks. New York is fanning at the third-highest rate vs. RHP over the past month, and it’s not just the strikeouts that look favorable: their OBP and wRC+ are both in the bottom 10 of the league, suggesting an offense that could be shut down by the dominant Scherzer.
I’ve liked seeing that overlap. If Scherzer can neuralize the runs, he’s far more likely to make it 7 innings, and with his 1.23 Ks/inning mark, that would be more than enough to get us to this over 6.5 mark.
The Mets hurler is over 6.5 Ks in 65% of his starts this year and in seven of nine road starts. Seven straight RHP have gone over their strikeouts against the Yankees.
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Montgomery has been rolling for the Cardinals in his past two starts, finishing with 8 Ks in back-to-back starts. He’ll see the Cubs tonight, a team he saw earlier this season and struck out five times. Chicago is striking out at the sixth-highest rate vs. LHP, and their offense has had difficulties getting on base when seeing a lefty on the mound.
Parlay: Paul Goldschmidt & Trea Turner 1+ hit each (-117 FD)
We stay in that Cardinals game and look to Paul Goldschmidt to keep the hit train rolling. The St. Louis star has piled up 13 hits in his past six gamesand has 1+ hits in 23 of his last 30. He’ll see Drew Smyly tonight who he has a .400 average against in seven plate appearances.
Goldy has feasted on lefties, hitting .435 against them this season. That’s an average we’re happy to follow.
We’ll be pairing him with Trea Turner of the Dodgers. Turner is hitting .417 off Eric Lauer in 13 plate appearances and owns a .310 average when seeing a LHP on the mound. Turner has a hit in 26 of his last 30 games and feels like a terrific dance partner for Goldschmidt tonight.
That will do it for our MLB plays, enjoy the day and good luck!
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