Major League Baseball’s Rule 4 draft, ie, the one people care about, is a week away. You might have heard, but the Pirates have the first overall pick.
You also might have heard that LSU outfielder Dylan Crews has been hyped as one of the best prospects in years, a possible generational talent. The numbers would back this up. Crews hit .426 for the Tigers this season, with 18 home runs, 70 RBI and a tidy 1.280 OPS. He’s, dare I say, very good.
You also might have heard that Crews is represented by Scott Boras. Which means you also might have heard rumors that Crews doesn’t want to come to Pittsburgh, and that his “camp”, whatever that means (psst, it’s Boras), would prefer he go to Washington.
One, said rumors might not even be true.
Two, even if they are, who cares? The Pirates should make Crews the first pick in the draft on July 9thpay him a slot or slightly above slot bonus, and then dare him to rebuff them.
Spoiler alert: He won’t.
Reports that Crews would prefer to avoid the Pirates have been going around for about a week, but already there is doom and gloom among the faithful that the Pirates will opt to avoid headaches, real or imagined, that drafting Crews would bring. Instead, they’ll opt for his teammate, right-handed flamethrower Paul Skenes.
Skenes is, by all accounts, the real deal. He has even moved ahead of Crews on a handful of draft boards. He throws 103 with regularity, and looks like the best pitching prospect to enter the draft since Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg. What’s more, there’s an argument to be made that he hasn’t hit his ceiling yet; after two years at Air Force, where he was a good pitcher throwing in the mid-90s, his velocity went way up with LSU. He was completely dominant.
He boasts a wipeout slider to go with his elite fastball, and though he doesn’t really have a third pitch – according to The Athletic draft guru Keith Law, Skenes’ changeup isn’t much of a weapon – his first two pitches are so elite that he has very real potential to be the best pitcher in baseball in a few years’ time.
All that said, I’ll be annoyed if the Pirates don’t take Crews. It will reek of a move made to avoid the player who has been the near-consensus best prospect in a loaded draft since people started analyzing the class. It will be the path of least resistance to avoid a Boras client (Skenes’ representation is the same as Henry Davis’), and it will represent the Pirates trying to bolster their pitching pipeline when a cursory examination of their farm system suggests that they need an elite position player more.
Crews is a five-tool guy and has a chance to stick in center field in the majors. Even if he has to move to a corner outfield spot, his bat should be so productive that it doesn’t matter. He could be one of, if not the best hitter in baseball if he reaches his ceiling.
Give me the guy who is going to play in and impact 19 out of every 20 games instead of the guy who will pitch one out of every five.
More than anything, give me an example that the Pirates aren’t going to worry about what an agent thinks of them, that they’re going to act like any other team would in the situation. There exists the notion that Boras likes to steer his clients to the Washington Nationals, who have the second pick, because they pay a second contract, and move them up through the system quickly. The second part certainly is true, particularly relative to the Pirates, whose slow-rolling of prospects is an overly budget-conscious tactic that should stop immediately, but the first part isn’t. Bryce Harper didn’t get his mega-deal in Washington. Juan Soto got traded. Anthony Rendon got paid by the Angels. All are Boras clients.
Just pick the best player – Crews – pay him, and then watch him rocket through the system and stand as a cornerstone piece of the franchise for years to come. Seems pretty straightforward to me.
Taking Skenes brings the very real risk of Tommy John surgery into play. It’s not fatalism to suggest that, either. He throws the ball too hard, too often for it not to be a risk. Pitchers who throw it as hard as he does and don’t need surgery are outliers. Cole is one. Justin Verlander another. Strasburg helped the Nationals to great heights, but needed the surgery early in his career.
I don’t have a great feeling for what the team will actually do, other than to say it seems a safe bet that Crews or Skenes will be the pick, and there won’t be some big surprise.
Some partisans may have legitimately talked themselves into Skenes as the correct and legitimate best pick. Not me.
If the Pirates pick anyone but Dylan Crews, they’ll be making a mistake.
This article originally appeared on Beaver County Times: Forget Skenes hype, Pirates must select Crews with top pick