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Five NFL units peaking at the right time: Bills’ run game, Ravens’ defense, more

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Succeeding in the postseason is about getting hot at the right time. Teams can erase a season’s worth of inconsistent play if they make the proper adjustments toward the end of the season. Last year, the Bengals’ passing game took flight after Week 14, once coach Zac Taylor decided to abandon the running game and live and die on Joe Burrow’s arm. As we near the playoffs once again, these five units are getting hot at the right time.

Packers’ special teams

The Packers were the top seed in the NFC last season, but their atrocious special teams sank their championship hopes in the divisional round against the 49ers. Green Bay had a field goal blocked before halftime and a punt blocked for a touchdown with 4:50 remaining in the game. To fix their special teams unit, the Packers hired Rich Bisaccia, one of the league’s most respected special teams coaches.

Every aspect of Green Bay’s special teams was broken. Their cover units were leaky, and their return units lacked punch. In 2021, the Packers were 26th in opponent kick return average and 32nd in opponent punt return average. Additionally, they were 32nd in average field position after their kickoff returns.

“Rich has done a hell of a job — him, (assistant special teams coach) Byron (Storer), (special teams quality control coach Michael) Spurlock — of getting these guys to buy into that phase,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “And it’s become a real strength for us, I believe. And I don’t care what all the analytics say, and I know they can get skewed, I just know what I see on tape, and we’re bringing a physical mentality and guys are getting excited for it. I think you can feel that when watching our coverage units just getting down there, making big plays, making tackles inside the 20 and just playing with a physicality and a mentality and a style of play that reflects the type of energy that Rich brings each and every day.”

Under Bisaccia, the Packers have steadily improved. Since Week 9, the Packers are 13th in opponent kick return average, 15th in opponent punt return average and third in average field position after their kickoff returns. Their biggest improvement has been with their return units. Return specialist Keisean Nixon leads the league in kick and punt return yardage despite not returning a kick until Week 6. The combination of his skills and Green Bay’s schemes has led to some huge returns in the last few weeks.

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On his first kick return of the game against the Dolphins in Week 16, Nixon took it 94 yards. Bisaccia’s scheme and Nixon’s setup were essential to make the return pop. Marshall head coach Charles Huff, who was the special teams coordinator and running backs coach for Penn State before moving on to Mississippi State and Alabama, helped me break down the return scheme.

11:10 remaining in the first quarter

The kickoff team is numbered from five to one from the inside out. This helps the return unit determine blocking assignments.

“It’s a Double 5, Trap 4, shoot (middle) return,” Huff said.

“Double 5” (yellow/green lines) means the Packers want to get a double team on No. 5 to their right. “Trap 4” (white line) means they are going to block the No. 4 to the right with a blocker coming from the other side and hopefully catch him off guard. The other most essential blocks are the “lockout” blocks (red/blue lines) on the backside Nos. 4 and 5.

“Good job by the double team of creating space for the lockout blocks to get to the backside Nos. 5 and 4,” Huff said. “Looks like Green Bay had run a bunch of right returns because Miami is overplaying the right side return.”

The return was designed to hit right up the middle, but Nixon ran wide left before cutting up the middle and then veering back left to beat the kicker. The scheme and blockers set up a nice alley for Nixon to explode through.

Despite getting injured early against Miami, Nixon has had six consecutive games with 100 yards in total return (punt and kick) yardage. According to TruMedia’s expected points added model, three of the top 11 special teams performances of the LaFleur era have come in the Packers’ past five games.

Bills’ running game and Dawson Knox

A couple of weeks ago, I asked how long Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs could continue to carry the Bills’ offense without consistent complementary players. Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie will make plays, but they’re inconsistent and the Bills are second in the league in drops. Through Week 14, Buffalo also ranked 29th in expected points added (EPA) per rush on running back carries, according to TruMedia.

But in the past two games — an admittedly small sample size — the run game has been much improved, with the Bills ranking first in EPA per rush on running back carries from Weeks 15-16. In that span, Devin Singletary and James Cook combined for 281 yards rushing against the Dolphins and Bears. With Nyheim Hines contributing, the three backs have combined for 84 yards and two touchdowns receiving as well.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey has done a good job integrating more shotgun run concepts to take advantage of the light boxes that the Bills frequently see. The tackle lead play in the clip below is a good example.

Additionally, tight end Dawson Knox has emerged as a reliable complement to Diggs. In the past three games, he recorded 13 receptions for 177 yards and three touchdowns. He’s also an excellent run blocker, and his ability to create mismatches will be essential to a Bills playoff run.

The Dolphins and Bears effectively took away Diggs in the past two games, but the Bills still managed to score over 30 points in both games. The emergence of the running game came against weak run defenses, but the scheme looks more varied and the Bills running backs don’t have to be as productive as they’ve been. If they can just be consistently efficient against light boxes, defenses won’t be able to keep two safeties deep as often as they do against the Bills.

The Ravens trade for linebacker Roquan Smith has worked out as well as everyone thought it would. He was a perfect fit for a team that needed a steady presence next to Patrick Queen and an enforcer on the second level. Since trading for Smith in Week 9, the Ravens rank second in points allowed per drive, third in defensive EPA per play and third in run defense success rate.

Smith’s ability to read and close against the run is impressive, but his ability to restrict space in the middle of the field against the pass is what makes him so valuable.

3:17 remaining in the third quarter, first-and-10

Here, the Falcons called a dagger concept, which is a play-action concept with two deep intermediate in-breaking routes. Drake London ran the first crosser and Olamide Zaccheaus ran a “dover” route outside of him.

The Ravens were in Cover 3, so Smith had the “hook” zone to the offensive left. After the play-action fake, Smith was the first to decipher it was a pass play and quickly dropped back to take away London.

After London ran past Smith’s zone, Smith quickly closed on Zaccheaus. Zacchaeus felt him coming and moved his gaze to Smith and off the ball. He couldn’t locate the ball, and the pass fell incomplete.

Since joining the Ravens in Week 9, Roquan Smith ranks second among linebackers in splash plays (29), which TruMedia defines as pressures leading to throwaways, stuffs for no gain, interceptions, forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, pass breakups and stops on third down. and fourth down. The Ravens’ defense has carried this team while Lamar Jackson has been injured. If Jackson gets healthy and the Baltimore defense continues to get stops, the Ravens will be a dangerous team in the postseason.

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Vikings’ passing game

The Vikings have won an amazing 11 one-possession games this season, but their passing game isn’t why they aren’t able to win more convincingly. The defense ranks 22nd in DVOA, Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric. And since Week 12, the Vikings also rank 29th in rush EPA per game. During that same span, Kirk Cousins ​​ranks fourth in EPA per dropback while being hit more than any other quarterback in the league. Being able to throw to Justin Jefferson certainly helps. His combination of size, elite route running ability and toughness at the catch point has been unstoppable.

3:06 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-10

No one has been able to cover Jefferson on dig routes, so on third-and-10, the Giants had a “cut” bracket called on him. It’s designed to restrict in-breaking routes. The corner was pressed on Jefferson with inside leverage, while the safety played over the top of him deep and would drop to help outside.

Jefferson took an outside release but exploded upfield and shook both the corner and safety at the top of his route before breaking inside. Cousins ​​took a vicious hit but got Jefferson the ball in stride for the touchdown.

The Vikings have a nice group of complementary weapons in Adam Thielen, KJ Osborn and TJ Hockenson. Since getting traded to the Vikings in Week 9, Hockenson is second on the team in both targets (73) and receiving yards (444).

From 2018-2021, Cousins ​​completed 49.8 percent of his passes under pressure, averaging 5.96 per attempt and 11.97 yards per completion while throwing at or past sticks 44.7 percent of the time. This season, Cousins ​​has completed 51.3 percent of his passes under pressure, averaging 7.46 per attempt and 14.53 yards per completion while throwing at or past sticks 54.5 percent of the time. A quarterback’s statistics under pressure can be volatile from season to season and Cousins ​​has not been good under pressure historically, so we’ll see if he can carry his strong play into the postseason.

Ever since Dak Prescott returned from injury in Week 7, the Cowboys have led the league in points per drive and are second in EPA per drive, behind only the Chiefs. The Cowboys’ defense has been up and down, but this offense has consistently put points on the board. The Dallas passing game is in-sync, and Prescott ranks third in EPA per true dropback (no play-action or screens).

7:06 remaining in the fourth quarter, second-and-12

On this play, Prescott appeared to signal to the three-receiver side to run a combination. The defense had a weakside linebacker blitz called to the one-receiver side. Running back Tony Pollard had a free release, running a choice route, so the offense was in five-man protection.

Prescott didn’t appear to read the blitz before the snap because he didn’t change the protection. The center slid away from the blitz, and Prescott also looked to the combination away from the blitz first. Right guard Zach Martin saw the blitz and did a good job of “squeezing.” He slowed down the defensive tackle with a strong punch before taking the linebacker, who was a bigger threat to Prescott. Ideally, right tackle Tyron Smith would have seen this and taken the defensive tackle while cutting the defensive end free, but Smith is just coming back from injury and making a switch from the left side to the right.

Prescott saw the blitz right in the nick of time, bought time by falling back and found Pollard in the low red zone. Prescott hit CeeDee Lamb for the game-tying touchdown on the next play.

One negative of the Cowboys’ passing game has been Prescott’s propensity for turning the ball over. He ranks 25th in turnover-worthy plays among qualified quarterbacks (minimum 250 dropbacks). The challenge for Prescott in the postseason will be remaining aggressive while taking better care of the ball.

(Top photo of Bills’ Devin Singletary, right, against the Bears: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

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