SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 20: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder drives … [+]
The 2023 NBA All-Star Game will feature plenty of the usual suspects. Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo were named the captains of their respective conferences, and the other eight starters all have at least one previous All-Star nod under their belts.
However, there could be a number of fresh faces in Salt Lake City on Feb. 19, too.
Last Thursday, the NBA announced the All-Star starters for both conferences. Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry, Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic, New Orleans Pelicans forward Zion Williamson and Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic were selected alongside James in the West, while Brooklyn Nets guard Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell, Nets forward Kevin Durant. and Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum were selected alongside Antetokounmpo in the East.
The NBA uses a combination of fan, player and media votes to determine the All-Star starters. Coaches select the seven reserves—two guards, three frontcourt players and two “wild cards” (either guards or frontcourt players)—for each conference.
The reserves will be announced on Thursday’s edition of Inside the NBA on TNT. The following five players—all of whom would be first-time All-Stars—deserve to hear their names called Thursday night.
Shai Gilgeous Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
When no. 2 overall pick Chet Holmgren suffered a Lisfranc injury in his right foot during the offseason, the Oklahoma City Thunder appeared to be headed for their third straight dismal season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had other ideas in mind.
The fifth-year guard is averaging a career-high 30.9 points per game on 51.0 percent shooting to go with 5.7 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks. He’s getting to the charity stripe 10.2 times per game—he had never averaged more than 7.2 free-throw attempts prior to this season—and is shooting a career-best 90.8 percent from there.
Gilgeous-Alexander puts relentless pressure on defenses with his league-leading 24.1 drives per game. He’s averaging 16.5 points while shooting 51.4 percent from the field on such plays, which is partly why the Thunder leads the NBA with 65.2 drives per game.
All-in-one advanced metrics suggest Gilgeous-Alexander should be in contention for an All-NBA spot, not just an All-Star nod. He’s third leaguewide in value over replacement player, trailing only Jokic and Doncic, while he’s fifth in PER, sixth in box plus/minus and 13th in Dunks and Threes’ estimated plus/minus.
The 11th-seeded Thunder are one game behind the Utah Jazz for the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, but they have already matched their win total from last season with 32 games left to play. Gilgeous-Alexander should be a lock to receive his first All-Star nod.
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Utah Jazz
Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t the only should-be lock among potential first-time All-Stars. Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen should likewise be a no-brainer selection in the West.
When the Jazz traded away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert this past offseason, they seemed headed for a ground-up rebuild. That may still be in the cards—veterans such as Mike Conley, Kelly Olynyk and Jordan Clarkson could find themselves on the move prior to the Feb. 9 NBA trade deadline—but Markkanen has done his damnedest to keep them afloat in the meantime.
The 25-year-old, who came to Utah as part of the return package for Mitchell, is averaging a career-high 24.9 points per game on 52.0 percent shooting. He’s also chipping in 8.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 3.1 three-pointers per game while shooting a career-best 43.2 percent from deep.
Markkanen is the only player in the NBA this season who is averaging at least 20 points per game while shooting above 50 percent overall and 40 percent from three-point range. Although he doesn’t rank quite as high as Gilgeous-Alexander in all-in-one impact metrics, he’s 12th leaguewide in EPM, 16th in PER, 17th in VORP and 18th in BPM.
Seeing as 24 players will be named All-Stars, someone who is comfortably within the top 20 of the league in a host of advanced metrics should be one of those selections.
Tyrese Haliburton, PG, Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton has been sidelined for the past few weeks after suffering an elbow sprain and a knee contusion against the New York Knicks on Jan. 11. In his absence, the Indiana Pacers have gone 1-9, including six double-digit losses.
With Haliburton in the lineup this season, the Pacers are 22-18. They’re 2-10 without him.
Haliburton and Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden—who should also be an All-Star—are the only two players in the league this year averaging at least 20 points and 10 assists per game. While Haliburton isn’t quite in the vaunted 50/40/90 club, he isn’t far off, as he’s shooting 48.0 percent overall, 39.9 percent from three-point range and 88.0 percent from the charity stripe.
Haliburton is ahead of both Mitchell and Irving, the East’s two All-Star starters in the backcourt, in PER, box plus/minus, VORP and EPM. His scoring ability, shooting efficiency and preternatural passing vision have already pushed the Pacers past their expected preseason win total and have them only a half-game behind the Chicago Bulls for the final spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament.
Haliburton finished eighth among fan votes and sixth in player votes, so he never had a real shot to be named an All-Star starter. But he was third in media voting—ahead of Irving—which suggests he has a real shot at snagging one of the reserve nods.
De’Aaron Fox, PG, Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings are in the midst of an NBA-record 16-season playoff drought. They’ve only entered February with a winning record once since the 2005-06 season.
De’Aaron Fox has them on pace to break both of those ignominious streaks.
Fox, who was one of the biggest All-Star snubs two years ago, shouldn’t be denied this time around. He’s averaging 24.1 points per game on a career-high 50.4 percent shooting to go along with 6.1 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.6 three-pointers and 1.0 steals.
More importantly, the Kings sit third in the West with a 28-21 record heading into Tuesday. The “good stats, bad team” stink that lingered over Fox in past years is nowhere to be found this season.
Fox has been particularly lethal in clutch situations, which the NBA defines as any game in which no team leads by more than five points with five or fewer minutes remaining. The 25-year-old currently leads the league with 119 points on 60.0 percent shooting in such situations, ahead of renowned closers such as Doncic, Mitchell and DeMar DeRozan.
Not only should Fox be headed for his first All-Star Game this year, but he should also be the favorite for the NBA’s new Clutch Player of the Year award.
Jalen Brunson, PG, New York Knicks
A numbers game might prevent Jalen Brunson from earning his first All-Star nod this season.
Barring injury replacements, the East can have no more than six All-Star guards (two starters, two reserves and two wild cards). Mitchell and Irving are already in, and Harden, Haliburton and Celtics swingman Jaylen Brown should all be locked. That leaves one spot at most for players such as Brunson, DeRozan, Trae Young and Darius Garland, not to mention any frontcourt candidates who could snag the other wild-card spot.
Still, there’s no denying the All-Star-caliber impact that Brunson has had on the New York Knicks this year.
After signing a four-year, $104 million contract with the Knicks in free agency this past summer, Brunson has more than lived up to his end of the bargain. He’s averaging a career-high 22.5 points on 46.9 percent shooting to go with 6.2 assists, 3.5 rebounds, 1.8 three-pointers and 1.0 steals per game. He has missed only three games so far this season, but the Knicks are 26-22 with him in the lineup and 1-2 without.
Some all-in-one advanced metrics have Brunson on the fringes of All-Star consideration—he’s tied with Haliburton for 17th leaguewide in total win shares and is in a three-way tie with Irving and Toronto Raptors forward Pascal Siakam (another likely All -Star) for 20th in VORP. However, he’s 28th in box plus/minus, 37th in PER and outside the top 80 in EPM.
With teammate Julius Randle also coming on strong as of late, it’s difficult to imagine the seventh-seeded Knicks getting two All-Stars. However, Brunson has a legitimate case.
Honorable mentions
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Memphis Grizzlies
CJ McCollum, SG, New Orleans Pelicans
Aaron Gordon, PF, Denver Nuggets
Jerami Grant, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference and are current through Monday, Jan. 30. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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