If you’re reading this, there’s a good chance that you’re trying to prep for a fantasy draft. There’s a ton of resources to help you, but sometimes you may get some mixed messages in player evaluations.
So, let’s break down those differences. First, we’re going to break down the differences between NHL.com’s Top 250 fantasy players and our rankings here at The Athletic. Both rankings are based on the same categories: goals, assists, plus/minus, power play points, shots on goal, and hits for skaters. Goalies count wins, save percentages, goals-against average, and shutouts.
The idea isn’t to shred where NHL.com differed in opinion from us, but to try and explore the biggest gaps in the two lists. Maybe the model overrated players in our rankings. Maybe NHL.com’s list of underrated players because certain categories weren’t accounted for, or a player didn’t have the counting stats to earn high marks. Why not take a closer look?
Radko Gudas, D, FLA
TA: 72 | NHL.com: —
What categories your league counts is important here. If hits aren’t counted, but other offensive categories are, or even short-handed points, then this may not be the player for you. But if either physical column is counted, hits or blocks, then you should consider the Panthers defender.
Obviously Gudas isn’t a scorer. That’s why he shouldn’t go early in your draft. But his defensive impacts are fine enough that he’s not a liability, if you’re super worried about plus/minus. He’ll block shots, and he’s one of the most physical defenders in the league — Gudas is coming off a season in which he led all skaters with 355 hits.
Joel Eriksson Ek, C, MIN
TA: 84 | NHL.com: 194
Eriksson Ek may not pop off in any one particular category, but he hits a number of columns that make him a worthwhile option. He plays in all situations, is willing to shoot the puck, drives to the quality areas, can finish his chances, plays physical, and draws penalties. While his line has shifted between second and third usage, it likely trends closer to the former considering how that combination can be trusted versus less experienced forwards on the roster.
Noah Hanifin, D, CGY
TA: 98 | NHL.com: 195
Hanifin always seems to be underrated. Maybe it’s because the Flames don’t have a true No. 1, and are closer to a 1A and 1B between him and Rasmus Andersson. But Calgary should still be a strong offensive team despite key subtractions, just with more distribution of that scoring as opposed to it all coming from one combination. Plus, he may be quarterbacking the top power play unit.
Mason Marchment, LW/RW, DAL
TA: 146 | NHL.com: 225
Marchment had an excellent breakout year in Florida while primarily playing on the third line. Most of that production came at five-on-five, where he had the underlying numbers to back that up. Now he should have more ice time in Dallas on the second line to give his new team a more balanced top-six.
Vince Dunn, D, SEA
TA: 142 | NHL.com: 221
There are certainly some red flags, like what Dunn’s plus/minus could be playing in front of Philipp Grubauer. But the Kraken have strengthened their forward group and should, at the very least, push closer to average in their expected goal generation. Dunn should benefit from that, and a role on the top power play unit, after playing second fiddle to Mark Giordano for much of 2021-22, adds to his stock.
Dougie Hamilton, D, NJD
TA: 46 | NHL.com: 114
Hamilton’s first year in New Jersey didn’t go according to plan, but injuries played into that as did the quality of the team around him and their goaltending situation. A bounce back should be on the horizon for the healthy defenseman, who has some more offensive support now and a new voice behind the power play — that should ensure 1) more usage there, as the bona fide quarterback on the top unit, and 2) a more dynamic approach, overall. While he may not shine in the more physical categories, most leagues rely on scoring for about four categories, so it makes sense to prioritize that above all else when drafting.
Miro Heiskanen, D, DAL
TA: 48 | NHL.com: 106
Heiskanen is a player to watch this season. He was one who multiple sources pointed to as a riser in this year’s player tiers. Not only does he have the potential to emerge as an elite No. 1 defenseman (which he’s already well on his way to), the Stars should have more than one capable line this year, and shouldn’t be held back by their defensive structure after a coaching change. Plus, without John Klingberg in the mix, that top power play unit is Heiskanen’s to lose.
Tanner Jeannot, RW, NSH
TA: 145 | NHL.com: 191
If your league does factor in hits, it helps to have a player who can chip in elsewhere so they don’t become dead weight. Jeannot is one of those options who can contribute to the scoring areas while racking up hits. His progression, along with some of the improvements made to the Predators’ supporting cast, bodes well for the winger.
Jack Hughes, C, NJD
TA: 126 | NHL.com: 50
While our rankings favor some players, there’s also a handful who NHL.com rates higher worth discussing. First up is Hughes, whose breakout season was cut short by injury last year. Refresh on last week’s column about why he got the biggest ‘boost’ adjustment in our projections.
Spencer Knight, G, FLA
TA: 443 | NHL.com: 88
This is one of the bigger gaps that we’re working with: NHL.com has Knight +355 ahead of our ranking of 443. It’s less about his play and more about the opportunity.
The elephant in the room is Sergei Bobrovsky and his $10 million cap hit. Salaries don’t necessarily drive coaching decisions, but this is the player Florida has entrusted to be their stater. And it’s not as if he’s coming off a terrible year that would put that role in question — in all situations, he saved 12.14 goals above expected in 54 games, and that landed him 10th in the league. That’s a massive rebound from allowing 9.97 more goals than expected across 31 games in 2020-21. Sure, his postseason wasn’t perfect, but neither was the rest of the team.
It’s not to say that Knight can’t outperform Bobrovsky and that the Panthers won’t make an effort to get him more playing time (as long as his performance calls for it). Considering both of their ages, that makes perfect sense. However, a goalie who is not a starter probably doesn’t belong as high in the rankings. Playing time matters — managers usually have to hit a minimum with their goalies each week anyway — and Knight isn’t guaranteed it right now. It helps to have a bona fide starter first and foremost, then consider second and third goalies, which is where he falls right now until his role changes.
Phil Kessel, RW, VGK
TA: 456 | NHL.com: 203
Between recency and the age adjustment, we’re a bit more skeptical on what Amanda Kessel’s brother can contribute. However, the change of scenery definitely raises his stock. In Arizona, Kessel was expected to be one of the leading contributors. In Vegas, he’s depth, which is a much more fitting position for him at this point in his career. With Bruce Cassidy behind the bench, their offense should improve and the winger’s lackluster defense can probably be masked a bit better than in Arizona.
Cam Talbot, G, OTT
TA: 342 | NHL.com: 104
This ranking feels a bit optimistic. The Senators are unquestionably improved from where they left off — the offense has a lot more depth with Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, plus another year of progress from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle, and Josh Norris, among others. But if Ottawa’s going to collect wins, it’s probably because they manage to outscore their problems. As much as this team has the skill to possess the puck more and keep playing out of their own end, this defense hasn’t changed all that much.
Management didn’t change the personnel or assistant coach to tweak the systems, either. This was one of the worst defensive teams in the league last year, so the goalies will have their work cut out for them. Maybe Talbot responds better to that busy workload — he has played behind bad defensive teams before in New York and Edmonton before going to the more structured Wild — but on the surface, it looks like a goaltender who is in the wrong direction being asked to hide. those lapses in Ottawa.
Boone Jenner, C, CBJ
TA: 311 | NHL.com: 154
We acknowledged that the projection may be low on Jenner last week considering he’ll likely have offensively-inclined linemates, whether that’s Johnny Gaudreau or Patrik Laine. Plus, this is someone who will contribute in more than just the scoring categories — he should contribute across the board, whether it’s with shot creation, shot blocking, or short-handed points. But this still seems a bit high. Maybe we’re just skeptical on the Blue Jackets right now, but Jenner feels like a depth add who can come lower in the draft.
Jack Campbell, G, EDM
TA: 196 | NHL.com: 41
To end it, we’re circling back to goaltending. Campbell ranks 41st in NHL.com’s fantasy rankings and seventh among goalies. We’re a lot more skeptical, sliding him down to 196th overall and 21st among goaltenders. Campbell’s inconsistency last year is what gives us pause on him. On the season as a whole, he earned a .914 save percentage and conceded 7.96 goals above expectations. The latter number is particularly concerning considering how much it fell from its strong start to sink that low. And that was behind a solid Maple Leafs defense. The Oilers have made improvements in all three zones since the coaching change, but there’s still some chaos in Edmonton. Pair that with a chaotic goaltender and it could make for an interesting year.
Campbell is still a goaltender worth considering, just not that early in the draft. There are many superior options as your No. 1. Campbell should either be selected for managers without a No. 1 late in the draft, or as a second goaltender, to have a more stable crease.
Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, HockeyViz, AllThreeZonesand Evolving-Hockey
(Top photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)
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