Friends, at this point we know what Friday means. It’s time for your favorite column, Fantasy Trends and Hidden Gems. You don’t need our intro spiel, so let’s get to the content.
Four-Game Streamers
Who among us isn’t a four-game streamer this week? Twenty teams will be in action four times, while the Flyers have a five-game slate. The wild card is the holiday on Monday — that took a usual “light night” and stacked it with round-the-clock action. It’s why so many more teams have back-to-back matchups this week, too. Make sure you set your lineup early before action kicks off at 1pm ET, by the way.
So which player adds will maximize your usage this week?
Erik Gustafsson, D, WSH | 65% Yahoo
If Gustafsson is available in your league for some reason, maybe you should change that. His role on PP1 with John Carlson sidelined has bolstered his scoring. And now the Capitals are trending up at five-on-five, which opens up the potential for more production there. They’re one of the hottest teams in the league, which gives managers quite a few options to choose from up front. But if you’re focused on the backend, he’s the choice.
Anton Lundell, C, FLA | 22% Yahoo
Speaking of that Monday schedule, Sabers vs. Panthers kick it off. This is a major matchup. The Panthers’ playoff chances are dropping, and Buffalo is trying to sneak into the postseason mix. So, this in-division matchup got that much more interesting. It’s one of four games during the week, one of three against an Atlantic team, and one of two against another team that could be in the playoff conversation. That’s why we expect Florida to step up. The pressure is mounting, and a player like Lundell — who moved up to Aleksander Barkov’s wing — could help be the spark this team needs.
Jason Zucker, LW, PIT | 20% Yahoo
A healthy Zucker tends to be on our radar. He contributes to the scoring categories, with both his shot creation and playmaking, adds some shots on goal, and even chips in a few hits. The Penguins’ second line is solid and is performing in line with expectations. That bodes well for managers contemplating this skater. So does the fact that Pittsburgh will be in action for three light nights during the week.
Eeli Tolvanen, LW/RW, SEA | 8% Yahoo
When the Kraken claimed the former first-rounder off waivers, the question was what Tolvanen could bring to the lineup. It hasn’t taken him long to show it. The highlight is that effective shot — he creates chances and has finishing ability. But overall, he’s just added to the scoring depth this team thrives off of. There’s quite a few options in Seattle because their scoring is so spread out, and Tolvanen is just the latest addition to that.
Craig Smith, RW, BOS | 1% Yahoo
It’s possible the lineup changes after a loss, but Smith has skated in Jake DeBrusk’s spot the past couple of games alongside Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron. There’s few places better than that. We don’t expect him to suddenly find his form and perform at peak levels, but this could become a sneaky depth pick if — and only if — he sticks around on this line. If not, maybe look to Taylor Hall a bit more seriously if he’s available in your league since he’s on PP1.
Trending Up
Sometimes, we don’t need to know about the perfect fantasy schedule ahead. We just need a player to help on any given night. So scheduling aside, here’s a few players we’re keeping an eye on.
K’Andre Miller, D, NYR | 43% Yahoo
Miller has a knack for highlight reel and clutch plays. But now, those plays are happening at a more consistent level. The defender was building on the offensive side of his game last season, and is back at that in New York. He’ll contribute across the board, except for the power play column. So if you want a little oomph on the blue line, he’s your guy. The scheduling isn’t perfect this next week, but he’s trending up enough that you may want to consider this sooner rather than later.
Andrew Mangiapane, LW/RW, CGY | 27% Yahoo
A lot of Flames burned out in the first half, as we’ve seen some fantasy stocks plummet. That’s true for Mangiapane, who disappointed in the first half after a breakout year. But things are turning around for the forward who is a part of a very good line combination in Calgary. Mikael Backlund’s having a Selke-caliber season and Blake Coleman’s just playing to his strengths. That line, with Mangiapane, ahead of their Thursday night matchup, was rocking a 79 percent expected goals rate. The results should keep coming if they keep playing at this level, and we anticipate the winger to finish his chances at a higher rate moving forward to help facilitate that.
Jake Middleton, D, MIN | 1% Yahoo
This may seem like an odd pick from a fantasy perspective, but Middleton can fit a very specific need. Managers can count on him to block a ton of shots. And his schedule this week is extra favorable for that. The Hurricanes and Panthers always rank highly in shot attempts, and the Capitals have trended up over the past month. So expect him to keep putting his body in front of shots to protect his goalies.
Back-to-Backs
Planning the back-to-backs can be handy when picking up any players — but it’s particularly key for goaltenders. Let’s talk about a few.
Samuel Ersson, G, PHI | 13% Yahoo
With five games between Monday and the following Sunday, plus two back-to-backs, we fully expect to see Ersson in action. Yes, the #BadTeamEffect is real, and can make picking up a backup even more nerve-wracking. But the team’s upcoming opponents (besides Boston) and his play make it more encouraging. After a shaky season debut against the Hurricanes, he’s put up a quality start in each of his next four games. That includes a 28-game shutout over the Sabers a few days ago.
Pheonix Copley, G, LAK | 53% Yahoo
We talked a bit about Copley when he was first called up. He was putting up some quality play that earned him more playing time, and now he’s owning that starting net in Los Angeles. With three games ahead next week, including a back-to-back, managers should bet on two starts from Copley.
Martin Jones, G, SEA | 64% Yahoo
Why am I recommending a goalie with such a high roster percentage? Because I told you all I had no faith in him earlier this year. That’s still true. I’m sorry, I can’t trust Martin Jones from a fantasy perspective. But my vibes aside, let’s look at the facts. After sliding a bit in late November/early December, he’s picked his play back up. So far in January, he has five quality starts and only one below-average outing. And most importantly, he’s getting important goals support throughout the Kraken lineup. So, yes, we are curious to see if he can keep this up.
Playoff Light Nights
As requested, we’re breaking down the light nights of the playoff schedule so you can plan early. As a reminder: these are days with 10 or fewer teams in action.
Week 21: March 6-12
There’s only two light nights during this stretch. Anaheim and Chicago are in action twice, so this may be a good chance to add a player you anticipate moves at the deadline. This way, if you keep advancing, you have them on a contender for the final two weeks of the season.
Otherwise, Calgary, Detroit, Florida, Minnesota, Vancouver, and Winnipeg each have one light night.
Week 22: March 13-19
This is a pretty traditional schedule with light nights on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.
One light night: Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Montreal, Islanders, Flyers, Kraken, Capitals
Two light nights: Anaheim, Colorado, St. Louis
Three light nights: Buffalo, Toronto
This time around, there’s more potential playoff teams to choose from. Dylan Cozens, who just keeps progressing this year, may be a strong option in Buffalo. If Jeff Skinner’s production and roster percentage remain unbalanced, he could be another pick as well. And Calle Jarnkrok, if he sticks around the top-six in Toronto, may be an ideal option thanks to his positional versatility.
Week 23: March 20-26
One light night: Boston, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Calgary, Detroit, Florida, New Jersey, Nashville, Islanders, Ottawa, San Jose, St. Louis, Toronto, Vancouver
Two light nights: Chicago, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh
Three light nights: Arizona
Four light nights: Colorado
Colorado, at this point, is up to six light nights come fantasy playoffs. The Artturi Lehkonen’s, JT Compher’s, and Valeri Nichushkin’s may become even more important to managers at this point. By then, we expect a healthier squad which should get this team closer to the level that’s expected of them. While it could knock some players out of key roles, it should strengthen the top-six to elevate the performance of those supplementary players.
Week 24 March 27- April 2
No duplicates here, just one light night each for: Arizona, Buffalo. Calgary, Colorado, Dallas, Florida, Minnesota, Islanders, Rangers, Toronto, Vancouver, and Washington.
Final light night playoff tally:
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, AllThreeZones, HockeyStatCardsand NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a Primer on these numbers.
(Top photo: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)
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