ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for October 23 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Sunday’s games
Dynamic Duo: We are two games into the Dejounte Murray-Trae Young era and the shared usage is simply amazing. Thus far, they’ve accounted for not only 35.3% of Atlanta made buckets, but an amazing 85.7% of their assists. You read that right. Yes, these two games have come against teams that picked in the top-3 of the 2022 NBA Draft, so some regression is to be expected, but if anything close to these rates sustain, both will prove to have been great picks at your fantasy draft (and remarkable DFS options).
Winning With Walker?: It’s no secret that the Lakers are top heavy, a roster construction that may not be ideal for winning actual basketball games, but one that can favor the updated bettor. Lonnie Walker played every second of the fourth quarter on Friday against the Clippers and scored 12 of their 20 points in the period. Yes, it’s a 12 minute sample, but given that Russell Westbrook (one game with more turnovers than assists, another in which he missed all 11 shots), Patrick Beverly (two made shots in 58 minutes) and Austin Reaves (more fouls than shots this season) have yet to do anything to earn extended usage, Walker has more upside than his current prop bets give him credit for.
In On Edwards: After the acquisition of Rudy Gobert this offseason, there were some concerns about what this massive front court does to the aggressiveness of Anthony Edwards. Through two games … no dice. So far this season, 45% of his shots have come at the rim (up from 30.4% last season) and his assist-plus-turnover average sits at 8.0 (up from 6.4 last season). It’s early, but those numbers point towards an offense that is happy to run through their budding superstar. His fantasy stock is on the rise and it’s possible you catch some favorable PRA numbers in the prop market (both tonight and in the short-term).
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers
3:30 pm ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Line: Lakers (-3.5)
Money line: Lakers (-160), Blazers (+135)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.2 points
BPI Win%: Lakers (55.7%)
Questionable: LeBron James (foot), Anthony Davis (back)
Ruled out: Troy Brown Jr. (back)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Patrick Beverley. Beverley doesn’t shoot or score much, but the Lakers don’t need that. It’s across the board production with a few boards, assists, steals and blocks and he’s certainly getting enough minutes to help a fantasy roster. Portland looks good so far, but opposing guards have an opportunity to thrive. — Eric Karabell
Best bet: Damian Lillard over 30.5 points + assists. Since entering the league in 2012-2013, Lillard is one of five players with 200 games with 30 points or more. Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry are the others. Lillard is primed for a monster season in Portland with a better supporting cast. He should thrive against a Lakers team that allows the seventh most points per game against point guards. — Eric Moody
Best bet: Jusuf Nurkic over 10.5 rebounds. Despite a suboptimal season opener, Nurkic bounced back nicely against the Suns on Friday with 20 points and 17 rebounds in 35 minutes. Against a Lakers team that has allowed the sixth most rebounds per game so far this season, he may have similar success. — Moody
Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks
5 pm ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-10.5)
Money line: Hawks (-550), Hornets (+400)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.1 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (78%)
Questionable: Terry Rozier (ankle), Cody Martin (quad)
Ruled out: Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee), LaMelo Ball (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Hornets +10.5. The Hawks are the better team and should be favored at home, but this is an outrageous number of points to lay. It’s still possible for the Hornets to score points without Ball, and they’re third in 3-point shooting percentage and fifth in field goal percentage. In their last 22 road games, the Hornets have gone 16-5-1 against the spread. Charlotte has also gone 4-1 in their last five games. Taking the points is my recommendation. — Moody
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 pm ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Line: Cavaliers (-3.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (-165), Wizards (+140)
Total: 217.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.2 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (62%)
Questionable: Vernon Carey Jr. (concussion), Dylan Windler
Ruled Out: Darius Garland (eye)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Caris LeVert (rostered in 48% of ESPN leagues). LeVert is positioned for fantasy success with Garland out of the lineup due to an eye injury. He’ll take on more of the playmaking responsibilities for the Cavaliers. On Saturday, he scored 14 points and collected four rebounds, eight assists, a steal and a block against the Bulls. LeVert could have a similar performance against a Wizards team that ranked 25th last season in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
7 pm ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: Pelicans (-7.5)
Money line: Pelicans (-320), Jazz (+250)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 229.7 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (61.9%)
Questionable: Jackson Hayes (elbow)
Ruled out: Kira Lewis Jr. (knee),
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Zion Williamson over 31.5 points + rebounds. Williamson has looked great so far this season playing 30 or more minutes in consecutive games. He’s amassed 41 points and 14 rebounds. Williamson faces a Jazz team that’s allowed some spectacular performances against power forwards; Utah has allowed the fifth most points and the sixth most rebounds per game to PFs. — Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 pm ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Line: Timberwolves (-7.5)
Money line: Timberwolves (-305), Thunder (+240)
Total: 225.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 232.4 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (75.3%)
Ruled out: Kyle Anderson (back), Jalen Williams (eye)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jaden McDaniels. Minnesota opened its season against the Thunder and McDaniels feasted with 19 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocks. Now comes a rematch and while McDaniels isn’t a big scorer, he thrives in points leagues for his statistical versatility. — Karabell
Best bet: Rudy Gobert over 14.9 rebounds. During his time with the Jazz, Gobert was an excellent rebounder, and that trend continues with the Timberwolves. Gobert has collected 39 rebounds in two games. In terms of rebounds, the Thunder have allowed the third most to centers so far this season. — Moody
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
8:30 pm ET, Chase Center, San Francisco, California
Line: Warriors (-9.5)
Money line: Warriors (-455), Kings (+345)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.1 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (79.3%)
Best bet: Stephen Curry over 33.5 points + assists. Curry should have no problem scoring against a Kings team that ranked 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in opponent effective field goal percentage last season. This season, Sacramento has not shown much improvement in these areas. Each game this season, Curry has scored 33 points or more and had four or more assists. This game should be particularly lethal for the veteran point guard as a facilitator. As a team, the Kings allow the third most assists per game to opposing point guards. — Moody
Best bet: Klay Thompson over 2.5 3-pointers. Thompson has been very successful from beyond the arc against the Kings. In 32 career games against Sacramento, he averaged 3.5 triples. So far this season the Kings are allowing the fourth most triples per game to shooting guards. Thompson should be able to succeed even with a slight time restriction. — Moody
Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers
10 pm ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-2)
Money line: Clippers (-340), Suns (+118)
Total: 219 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.9 points
BPI Win%: Suns (55.5%)
Questionable: Landry Shamet (hip), Cameron Johnson (hip)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Analytics Edge
BPI’s highest projected totals
1. Warriors (121.1 points)
2. Timberwolves (120.1 points)
3. Hawks (119.3 points)
BPI’s lowest projected totals
1. Wizards (109.5 points)
2. Suns (110.2 points)
3. Hawks (110.8 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Warriors (79.3%)
2. Hawks (78.0%)
3. Timberwolves (75.3%)
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