The warnings from both lenders suggest the trade surge that powered Asia through the pandemic is at a turning point, matching signals that manufacturers have been sending throughout the year.
In a note titled: “Plop’ – What the latest electronics indicators signal for Asia,’ Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC warned that key indicators are showing a slump in new orders with demand for Asia made electronics clearly coming off the boil.
“Things are coming back down to earth – fast,” Neumann wrote. “True, the headline electronics PMIs, freshly released for July, don’t look quite so alarming on the surface. But dig deeper, and the stumble becomes apparent.”
At the same time, Nomura’s updated Asia export leading index warns the region’s shipments may have reached a critical inflection point.
The bank has changed up its index, also referred to as NELI, by dropping three of its indicators and replacing them with four new ones, for a total of nine, which are pointing to a deeper slowdown in trade.
“Compared to our previous 2020 vintage model, our retooled NELI is warning of a deeper slump in Asian exports,” according to Rob Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura.
The NELI indicators include:
- Shanghai Shipping Exchange Freight Index, 2-month lead
- China’s imports, 2-month lead
- China’s imports from Asia, 3-month lead
- Global semiconductor sales, 3-month lead
- US manufacturing ISM, 2-month lead
- EM manufacturing PMI, 3-month lead
- China official manufacturing PMI, 3-month lead
- South Korea’s semiconductor exports, 2-month lead
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, 2-month lead
“Asian exports are often a bellwether of global growth and NELI’s pointing to a darkening outlook,” Subbaraman said.
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