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Kyle SoppeESPN
Regardless of what you think about the Week 6 slate, it lines up as a competitive set of games. The Buffalo Bills visiting the Kansas City Chiefs is the obvious headliner, but don’t sleep on the fact that four other games opened with a spread under a field goal. No one is suggesting that New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns or Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts will be a fantasy football bonanza, but they are just two examples of what looks like a week full of even matchups. So what does that mean for your betting card?
Over the past three-plus seasons, underdogs by less than a field goal have won outright 56.1% of the time. Again. Underdogs. Outright. 56.1%. Those ‘dogs are usually priced from +100 to +130, meaning that 56.1% rate has been very profitable. The trend by itself is interesting, but it’s downright shocking when you consider that, in the five years prior (2014-18), such underdogs cashed just 42% of outright tickets. So are you riding that trend into what looks like a very competitive Week 6? Let me know how many of the five you’re playing this week! With that, here is a look around the league by way of team notes and league trends:
Thu 8:15PM
Commanders ATS: 1-4
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Commanders: Each of Washington’s past three games have seen the opposing team cover AND the game go under the total.
Bears ATS: 2-2-1
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Bears: Nobody is expecting too many points in this game… and we still might be overestimating it! Under bettors have left seven of Chicago’s past 10 games happy.
Sun 1:00PM
Bengals ATS: 3-2
O/U: 0-5
What we know about the Bengals: Since the beginning of last season, unders are 6-1-1 in the game following a Bengals loss.
Saints ATS: 2-3
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Saints: Picking against the Saints? Take the under. In five of their past six ATS losses, the under has come through.
Jaguars ATS: 2-3
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Jaguars: From Week 10 of last season through today, the Jags are 3-0 ATS against the Colts and 1-10 ATS against the rest of the NFL.
Colts ATS: 2-3
O/U: 0-5
What we know about the Colts: Each of Indy’s past four home games have gone under the total and they’ve had a mini-bye to prepare for this Jags offense.
Vikings ATS: 1-4
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Vikings: The Vikings have won three straight games and managed not to cover any of them. Over the two years prior, they had a total of four such games.
Dolphins ATS: 3-2
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Dolphins: Can the Miami weather be overstated? The ‘Fins are 13-4 ATS over their past 17 games played in front of their home crowd.
Patriots ATS: 2-2-1
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Patriots: The Patriots have seen unders come through in six of their past eight road games.
Browns ATS: 2-3
O/U: 4-1
What we know about the Browns: The books seem to have Cleveland pretty well figured out as each of their past six games have been within eight points of the point spread.
Jets ATS: 3-2
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Jets: In every Jets game this season, they’ve either covered with the over or failed to cover in a game that went under the total.
Packers ATS: 2-3
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Packers: The Packers returned to Lambeau after spending a week in London and it’s a great place to be. Green Bay has covered nine of their past 11 home games, but one of those ATS losses came in their last game in front of their fans (Week 4 vs NE).
Ravens ATS: 2-2-1
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Ravens: Lamar Jackson plays an exciting brand of football, but don’t confuse that to mean they are a printing press when it comes to betting overs. In fact, since Week 10 of last season, the unders are 9-5 in Baltimore games (5-2 over the past seven).
Giants ATS: 4-1
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Giants: The G-men are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season after failing to cover their final six such games of last season.
49ers ATS: 3-2
O/U: 1-4
What we know about the 49ers: Four of San Francisco’s five games this season have had a cover margin of at least 11 points (“cover margin”: difference from the spread).
Falcons ATS: 5-0
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Falcons: Under tickets have come through in each of Atlanta’s past five home games not played against the Saints. The 49ers, are in fact, not the Saints.
Buccaneers ATS: 2-3
O/U: 1-4
What we know about the Buccaneers: Tom Brady has failed to cover three straight games within a single season for the first time since Weeks 12-14. For those looking ahead … he hasn’t dropped four straight ATS since returning from his ACL tear.
Steelers ATS: 1-3-1
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Steelers: The Steelers were 14-point underdogs last week in Buffalo, yet they failed to cover by 21 points, their worst non-divisional showing since Week 1 of 2019 in New England.
Sun 4:05PM
Panthers ATS: 1-4
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Panthers: Over the past 11 months, Baker Mayfield has played for more teams (two) than the Panthers have covered games (one).
Rams ATS: 1-4
O/U: 1-4
What we know about the Rams: The Rams are 2-6 ATS over their past eight regular season games (also of note: they failed to cover their final two playoff games on their way to the 2022 Super Bowl).
Cardinals ATS: 3-2
O/U: 1-3-1
What we know about the Cardinals: During the Kliff Kingsbury era, the Cardinals are 5-9 outright (4-10 ATS) when favored after the first five games of a season.
Seahawks ATS: 2-3
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Seahawks: Home field disadvantage? The ‘Hawks have covered just one of their past seven home games against the divisional rival Cardinals.
Sun 4:25PM
Bills ATS: 3-1-1
O/U: 1-4
What we know about the Bills: The Bills have covered seven of their past nine primetime games (5-1 ATS on the road over that stretch).
Chiefs ATS: 2-3
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Chiefs: The Chiefs have failed to cover three of their past four games on short rest (but they have won all four of those games outright).
Sun 8:20PM
Cowboys ATS: 4-1
O/U: 1-4
What we know about the Cowboys: The ‘Boys have covered three straight against Philadelphia and over tickets have cashed in each of those instances (64.3 total points per game).
Eagles ATS: 3-2
O/U: 2-3
What we know about the Eagles: Overs have come through in six of Philadelphia’s past seven home games (lone exception: Week 2 vs Minnesota).
Mon 8:15PM
Broncos ATS: 1-4
O/U: 1-4
What we know about the Broncos:Under-under-under-under-under-OVER-under-under-under-under-under. No big deal, that’s just the over/under results for Denver’s past 11 primetime games. Lots of changes in the roster over that stretch, but the total results have been all but a lock.
Chargers ATS: 4-1
O/U: 3-2
What we know about the Chargers: The Bolts are 8-3 ATS over their past 11 divisional games, including a 34-13 win as a 7.5-point favorite over the Broncos in their last meeting.
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