A typical Major League Baseball regular season, at one point in the game’s history, ended before the calendar flipped to October.
While that is no longer true, September remains a make-or-break month – for teams fighting for postseason positioning, a player looking to turn around a lost campaign, a call-up looking to make a first impression or (and this may be specific to 2022) a future Hall of Famer chasing a legendary milestone.
There is an entire month of baseball to play, and with that, plenty of questions that must be answered. Here are 10 we try our best to answer.
Mets or Braves: Who wins the NL East?
If it feels like the late 1990s, that’s because the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves are battling atop the NL East as fall beckons. Back then, the Braves typically came out ahead. This time around, the Mets lead by three games.
The evenly-matched teams both have manageable schedules – Atlanta must navigate a West Coast swing, however, while the Mets schedule turns more favorable. An element of bad blood has already been dosed into the rivalry, with Braves right-hander Spencer Strider saying the Mets benefited from “luck” on offense. A three-game series between the teams that begins Sept. 30 could determine which of the clubs – both could be 100-game winners by then – finishes first.
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How early will the Dodgers clinch the NL West?
Look at the Los Angeles Dodgers record entering September: 90-39. What’s more impressive? The fact they have 90 wins already, or the fact they haven’t even lost 40 games yet. Some guy named Clayton Kershaw comes off the injured list on Thursday, too.
As it stands, the Dodgers’ magic number is 14. Six of their next 10 games are against the second-place San Diego Padres, who are an insurmountable 18 ½ games behind Los Angeles. Will Dodgers manager Dave Roberts write out a “hangover lineup” on Monday, Sept. 12, when the team faces the Arizona Diamondbacks on the road? There is more than a decent chance.
Which teams get last 2 NL Wild Card spots?
The top-heavy NL East has created a scenario in which three teams – the Padres, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies – are fighting for the fifth and sixth NL Wild Card slots.
One is going to be on the outside looking come playoff time.
Right now, that would be the Brewers (69-60). Philadelphia (73-58) is in fifth and San Diego (73-59) is 2 ½ games ahead. Milwaukee’s choice to trade closer Josh Trader at the deadline drew ire, and although Hader has been bad for the Padres, they will be the ones laughing if they are playing into October and Milwaukee goes home.
The Phillies have plenty of games against bad teams remaining; winning against lesser teams has been their primary strategy, especially since firing manager Joe Girardi earlier this season. If Philadelphia isn’t playing deep into October, it will hurt, a lot. But that is how whoever the odd-one out is going to feel on Oct. 6.
Guardians or Twins: Who wins the AL Central?
The Chicago White Sox, two games under .500, somehow aren’t out of it (5 games back). But this discussion will revolve around the first-place Cleveland Guardians and the Minnesota Twins, who are 1 ½ games in the rear-view mirror.
For the Twins, it will be essential to remain tough at home. The Guardians must feast on the Kansas City Royals over the final six games of the year. The teams will also face each other in consecutive weekends during the back half of September. Cleveland has been one of the most pleasant surprises in MLB this season. An AL Central crown will confirm that.
Can the Orioles really make the playoffs?
Yes! This Baltimore squad refused to quit in August (17-10), even after management traded away some of the team’s top players at the deadline. Baltimore is two games behind the Blue Jays for the AL’s third wild-card spot and the two teams face off nine times before the season ends.
Former No. 1 overall pick Adley Rutschman’s arrival sparked things earlier in the year and the Orioles should get a boost from top prospect Gunnar Henderson, who homered in his MLB debut on Wednesday. Baltimore’s starting pitching was terrific in August with Kyle Bradish (3.14 ERA), Jordan Lyles (3.18), Austin Voth (2.57) and Dean Kremer (2.25) all making at least five starts.
Will Aaron Judge set the AL home run record?
With 51 home runs entering September, Judge is on pace to break Roger Maris’ American League record of 61 home runs in a single season. A free agent after the season, the 30-year-old Yankees slugger would be the first player since 2001 (Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa) to top 60 homers.
Maris (61 in 1961) and Babe Ruth (60 in 1927), both Yankees, are the only two AL players to hit 60 home runs in a season. Maris’ mark stood as baseball’s all-time record until 1998. The Yankees have 31 games remaining, 16 of them in the Bronx, where Judge has hit 27 of his 51 homers to date.
Will Albert Pujols join the 700 club?
The 42-year-old’s torrid August (eight homers) put him in position to make a run at 700 in his final season, entering September with 694 in his career. Pujols would become only the fourth player in history to hit 700, joining Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth.
St. Louis has built a nice cushion over the Brewers in the NL Central and Pujols will get regular at-bats down the stretch, but the future Hall of Famer has an uphill climb with 31 games to go.
Would Pujols consider a return in 2023 if he comes up short?
“I’m still going to retire, no matter whether I end up hitting 693, 696, 700, whatever,” Pujols told USA TODAY Sports. “If you were going to tell me 22 years ago that I would be this close, I would have told you that you’re freakin’ crazy. My career has been amazing.”
Who’s going to clinch Manager of the Year?
American League: Dusty Baker, Astros – Justin Verlander’s return to Cy Young form certainly offset Carlos Correa’s departure, but the 73-year-old Baker has Houston as the favorites to return to the World Series. It may not mean a thing without a ring, but Baker’s success in Houston has hushed some of his critics. Named the NL’s top manager in 1993, 1997 and 2000 with the San Francisco Giants, Baker should win a fourth career award when the Astros finish with the AL’s best record.
National League: Dave Roberts hasn’t won this award since 2016, somehow. No Mets manager has won the award … ever, somehow.
One of those two things will change. (Rob Thomson, the Phillies’ interim manager, and first-year Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol deserve honorable mentions.)
Mets owner Steve Cohen struck gold by hiring Buck Showalter, the perfect manager for this year’s Mets club. Another Manager of the Year win would be Showalter’s fourth; his previous three were with three different organizations (Yankees, Rangers, Orioles).
What will prevent that is if the Dodgers do something historic, like win 108 games or more. At that point, it has to go to Roberts. Yes, his rosters are always elite, but for one club to have a sustained stretch of excellence like the Dodgers have under Roberts means the skipper is doing something right.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Biggest questions heading into the final month of the MLB season