NO decided to punt to SF from the NO 45 on 4th & 1 with 5:52 remaining in the 1st while losing 0 to 3.
With a Surrender Index of 6.44, this punt ranks at the 91st percentile of cowardly punts of the 2022 season, and the 87th percentile of all punts since 1999.
— Surrender Index (@surrender_index) November 27, 2022
Well that’s not what you want to hear. The Surrender Index Twitter account examines the decision to punt in each game each week based on the specific situation, factoring in down and distance to go as well as the score and time left on the clock. It’s a unique tool, and it really disagrees with Dennis Allen’s decision to punt on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.
Needing just a yard to pick up a fresh set of downs from their own 45-yard line about 10 minutes into the first quarter, the New Orleans Saints opted to punt the ball away rather than go for it. That decision ranked within the 91st percentile of “cowardly” punts this season, and within the 87th percentile among all punts dating back to the 1999 season. Not great.
You’d like to see the Saints be more aggressive there, trusting in their mostly-healthy offensive line and short yardage specialists like Taysom Hill to go get a single yard near midfield. It’s an opportunity to assert themselves on the road against a better opponent.
But Allen’s decision does make some sense given more context. New Orleans ended their first drive with an Alvin Kamara fumble at their own 43-yard line, giving the high-powered 49ers offense a short field to work with (they ended up kicking a field goal from point-blank range after the Saints defense buckled down against their own end zone). Their second drive started with a false start. Maybe punting there was the right call, even if it wasn’t exciting to watch or approved by analytics services.
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