The three best teams in the NFL this season, by record, each lost three games this season. The next-best trio, by record, lost 25 percent of the time.
There are no perfect teams in the league as the playoffs begin Saturday, but there are many potent ones. Some that didn’t look that way earlier this season, such as the Bengals and Jaguars, leaned into their identities and won their divisions. Others that did look stellar early in the 2022 season, such as the Cowboys and Dolphins, are in but bring with them as many questions as they have victories.
The following is a breakdown, by conference, of each team’s chances to win their conference championship and the Super Bowl based on the model run by The Athletic‘s Austin Mock.
AFC playoff projection
|
Team |
Win conference |
Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
|
32.9 percent |
16.9 percent |
|
|
23.7 percent |
13.0 percent |
|
|
13.4 percent |
6.8 percent |
|
|
11.2 percent |
5.7 percent |
|
|
9.2 percent |
4.6 percent |
|
|
5.6 percent |
2.6 percent |
|
|
4.0 percent |
1.4 percent |
Mock’s model sees Kansas City as the team to beat in the AFC as it is projected to make the Super Bowl about a third of the time despite losing outright during the regular season to both Buffalo and Cincinnati. The Chargers have been banging up this season, but heading to Jacksonville is a very winnable game. In fact, Mock has them winning the AFC just two percent less than the Bengals. This model does not factor Lamar Jackson being 100-percent certain to play for the Ravens in the wild-card round.
NFC playoff projections
|
Team |
Win conference |
Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
|
31.9 percent |
15.4 percent |
|
|
23.8 percent |
12.3 percent |
|
|
11.3 percent |
5.7 percent |
|
|
9.2 percent |
4.8 percent |
|
|
9.0 percent |
4.7 percent |
|
|
7.7 percent |
3.3 percent |
|
|
7.1 percent |
2.7 percent |
The Eagles didn’t let the first round bye slip out of their grasp Sunday, and because of that they head into the playoffs as the NFC’s overwhelming favorite to reach the Super Bowl at 31.9 percent. The 49ers are the runner-up at 23.8 percent but interestingly enough, the fifth-seeded Cowboys and fourth-seeded Buccaneers both have a greater chance to be crowned NFC champs than the third-seeded Vikings, as the model has Minnesota’s chance of making the Super Bowl at just 9.0 percent. The model sees the Vikings as being closer to a league-average team than a top-10 team.
Full field projection
|
Team |
Win conference |
Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
|
32.9 percent |
16.9 percent |
|
|
31.9 percent |
15.4 percent |
|
|
23.7 percent |
13.0 percent |
|
|
23.8 percent |
12.3 percent |
|
|
13.4 percent |
6.8 percent |
|
|
11.3 percent |
5.7 percent |
|
|
11.2 percent |
5.7 percent |
|
|
9.2 percent |
4.8 percent |
|
|
9.0 percent |
4.7 percent |
|
|
9.2 percent |
4.6 percent |
|
|
7.7 percent |
3.3 percent |
|
|
7.1 percent |
2.7 percent |
|
|
5.6 percent |
2.6 percent |
|
|
4.0 percent |
1.4 percent |
(Photo: Jeff Bottari/Getty Images)
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