The AFC champion is likely to be decided in an NFC team’s stadium, and the Eagles and 49ers could be a pick ’em if they meet for the NFC Championship.
Those are the indications of The Athletic‘s NFL playoff probability model run by Austin Mock entering this weekend’s divisional round. The model favors the Chiefs and Bills to meet in the AFC Championship Game in Atlanta and gives the Eagles and 49ers an almost even chance to reach the Super Bowl should they meet in Philadelphia on Jan. 29.
The following is a breakdown, by conference, of each team’s chances to win its conference championship and the Super Bowl based on the model’s projection.
AFC playoff projections
|
Team |
Win conference |
Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
|
41.6 percent |
22.0 percent |
|
|
36.1 percent |
18.1 percent |
|
|
14.5 percent |
6.9 percent |
|
|
7.8 percent |
3.5 percent |
NFC playoff projections
|
Team |
Win conference |
Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
|
35.1 percent |
17.5 percent |
|
|
33.1 percent |
16.8 percent |
|
|
20.3 percent |
10.2 percent |
|
|
11.5 percent |
5.0 percent |
And a breakdown of the entire playoff field:
Full field projection
|
Team |
Win conference |
Win Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|
|
41.6 percent |
22.0 percent |
|
|
36.1 percent |
18.1 percent |
|
|
35.1 percent |
17.5 percent |
|
|
33.1 percent |
16.8 percent |
|
|
20.3 percent |
10.2 percent |
|
|
14.5 percent |
6.9 percent |
|
|
11.5 percent |
5.0 percent |
|
|
7.8 percent |
3.5 percent |
(Photo: David Eulitt/Getty Images)
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