Skip to content

Dolphins at Bills spread, line, picks: Expert predictions for AFC Wild Card game

Even though the Miami Dolphins lost five of their last six regular-season games, they were still able to sneak into the AFC playoffs as the No. 7 seed with a narrow 11-6 win over the New York Jets in Week 18. Their reward: A trip to Buffalo in January, where they are big underdogs against one of the top Super Bowl contenders.

Kickoff is set for 1 pm ET Sunday from Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. The game will be televised nationally on CBS.

What makes this game so potentially one-sided in Buffalo’s favor is that the Miami Dolphins have the most unsettled quarterback situation of any team in the playoffs. Regular starter Tua Tagovailoa has yet to be cleared to play following his second concussion of the season. At the same time, backup Teddy Bridgewater was injured in their Week 17 loss to the New England Patriots with a dislocated pinkie on his throwing hand.

Rookie Skylar Thompson started the Dolphins’ Week 18 win over the Jets and threw for only 152 yards on 31 attempts, failing to lead a touchdown drive. The Dolphins say they’re approaching Sunday with Thompson as their starting quarterback.

Since 2000 there have been eight Wild Card games with a double-digit spread, with the favored going 8-0 in terms of actual record and 7-1 against the spread.

No matter who starts at quarterback for the Dolphins, Buffalo will have a sizable edge at the position with Josh Allen entering the playoffs as one of the league’s leading MVP candidates. The only thing that has held him back at times this season is that he has had some sloppy moments with turnovers (14 interceptions), especially in the red zone. Miami, though, has only intercepted eight passes all season. Only the New York Giants (six) have less among the league’s 14 playoff teams.

What are the odds for Bills vs. Dolphins?

Odds update live and are from BetMGM.

Storylines for Bills vs. Dolphins

Expert picks for Bills vs. Dolphins

(Photo of Josh Allen: Mark Konezny / USA Today)

.