TORONTO — How much does one game really matter?
Do Kyle Dubas and the rest of the Maple Leafs front office think any differently about their team and its needs after the way things went against the league-stomping Bruins on Wednesday night?
It’s probably unlikely that any one game would significantly sway opinions or change what the Leafs already think and/or know about their roster. But it might well reinforce opinions regarding needs ahead of the trade deadline.
Namely, the one on defense.
It’s been a simmering question ever since the November day the Leafs announced that Jake Muzzin would be out until at least March with a cervical spine injury. The question is simple: Do the Leafs need to replace Muzzin? Or, do they have everything they need internally already, what with Mark Giordano’s excelling at age 39 and Timothy Liljegren’s taking a step in his second full NHL season?
It’s a fascinating question, mostly because the Leafs have been one of the top teams in the NHL this season and boast six quality NHL defenders even without Muzzin — along with two solid, if very different, spares, Conor Timmins and Jordie Benn.
Why go paying assets for another defender in that case? Why not prioritize another top-six forward instead?
The Bruins game was an interesting test case because it saw the Leafs, for one of the few times all season, boasting a full complement on D minus only Muzzin. Which meant Sheldon Keefe could structure his defense just as he might in a playoff series that didn’t include Muzzin or any outside help:
Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie
Mark Giordano – Justin Holl
Rasmus Sandin – Timothy Liljegren
Keefe gave some interesting hints on how he might approach such a series.
For one thing, he deployed Rielly and Brodie almost exclusively against Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and whoever else (first, David Pastrnak and then Craig Smith) was filling out the Bruins’ No. 1 line.
Which meant that he preferred, for one night anyway, that Rielly and Brodie handle the tough stuff instead of Giordano and Holl. Which is, well, interesting given that Giordano and Holl have tackled tests like that together for most of the season.
So why change things up? Did the coaching staff want to see how Rielly and Brodie would handle it, just in case the front office doesn’t acquire anyone else? Do they simply trust Brodie, their best defender, more than anyone else? Would they rather not overextend Giordano if they don’t have to? Would they feel that way in a playoff series?
Rielly and Brodie did an OK enough job. In their nearly eight minutes against Bergeron and Marchand, shot attempts favored the Bruins 10-4. Expected goals were right around 50 percent.
Crucially, the Bruins didn’t score. (They did score when Rielly and Brodie were out there together against Pavel Zacha and Taylor Hall during a four-on-four sequence that didn’t go well for Brodie.)
Do the Leafs believe they can beat the Lightning in a first-round series with Rielly and Brodie’s going head-to-head against Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos? Can Giordano and Holl survive in that kind of assignment?
Or, do the Leafs need someone else to come in and help?
Were Muzzin around, it would be his pair’s absorbing matchups like that.
At times it feels like he’s almost been forgotten. But his absence is still hugely significant. Were he around, the Leafs would be set on the back end with no lingering questions. It was Muzzin and Brodie who fared quite well together against the Lightning’s top line in last year’s first-round series.
Without him, it feels like they’re short one defender like him — hard, heavy and difficult to play against. Or not if you believe the current group is good enough.
Adding another left-shot defender of Muzzin’s ilk (ie, Vladislav Gavrikov) would allow the Leafs to hook that player up with Brodie (or Holl) and have those do the top-line tango in the playoffs. Another righty, on the other hand, could play with either Rielly — leaving Brodie and Holl as the top defensive group — or Brodie on his natural side. Brodie’s malleability, among other things, is hugely valuable.
Of course, an addition of any kind would presumably bump Sandin or Liljegren from a prospective playoff lineup (assuming neither is moved).
It was one game, but a rough one for the two young Swedes against the Bruins: three goals against, with an expected goals mark of just 35 percent.
The game against the Bruins was a rough one for Rasmus Sandin. (John E. Sokolowski / USA Today)
And that’s the other question the Leafs will have to ask: Do they trust Sandin and Liljegren, essentially two second-year defensemen, to play together in a playoff series? this spring? Do they believe Sandin and Liljegren have enough physical heft and strength to keep Patrick Maroon and Corey Perry away from their net? Can they win enough puck battles against tough, scrappy dudes like Brandon Hagel and Alex Killorn?
Sandin and Liljegren were pushed off pucks on the sequence that led to the Bruins’ fifth and final goal and gave away pucks on the sequence that led to the second Boston goal.
And that’s really what this all comes down to — whether the Leafs believe they have a playoff defense. Not a regular-season defense. A group that can handle the sludginess of playoff hockey, when every battle for the puck is an all-out fight.
There was a reason (beyond getting rid of Nick Ritchie’s contract) that the Leafs traded for rugged Ilya Lyubushkin last year and played him against the Lightning ahead of Sandin (injured for most of the series) and Liljegren (for the final five games of the series).
One game against the Bruins (which didn’t include Auston Matthews) might reinforce opinions about where the Leafs are lacking. It might also push the front office towards bolstering the bottom of the forward group. The fourth line struggled to survive when the game was still in question.
One game. Lots to think about.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
(Top photo: Frank Gunn / The Canadian Press via Associated Press)
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