The Arizona Diamondbacks take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Diamondbacks Giants prediction and pick.
Merrill Kelly goes to the mound for the Diamondbacks, while Jakob Junis gets the start for the Giants.
Merrill Kelly has been terrific for the D-Backs this year. He carries a sub-three ERA into this game (2.95), the product of a spectacular month of July in which he posted a 1.31 ERA. Kelly hasn’t been quite as good in August, but he has still been solid: He went seven innings and gave up two runs on Aug. 6 against the Rockies. Then he allowed three runs in five innings against the Pirates on Aug. 11. That’s not a terrible game overall, but compared to what Kelly has been producing, it seems substandard. When five innings and three runs feels like the floor for a pitcher, that’s when one knows a pitcher has attained a certain degree of stature and staying power.
Jakob Junis has a 3.78 ERA, which is respectable and not awful, but Junis needs to give the Giants more innings. He hasn’t pitched six full innings in a start since June 5. That’s the only time in his last eight starts that Junis has gone six innings. In August, he has labored. Junis has allowed nine earned runs in six innings. It’s true that he faced the Dodgers and Padres, two absolutely loaded teams with tons of quality hitters. Still, the Giants are a wild card contender, and they definitely expect better from a member of their starting rotation. Baseball isn’t charity; Junis has to continuously earn and re-earn his place in the rotation.
Courtesy of FanDuelhere are the Diamondbacks-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks-Giants Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+188)
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-225)
Over: 8 (-112)
Under: 8 (-108)
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
The Diamondbacks have the much better pitcher on the mound in this game. That should count for a lot. The Giants have won several games in a row and, given the trajectory of their season, are likely to regress in this game. Arizona is not a particularly good team, but as we keep seeing this season, the D-Backs keep fighting. They won a road series at Coors Field over the weekend against the Rockies. They won a series last week against the Pirates. They might not always play well, but they do always compete vigorously. It’s precisely why they have a good chance of halting the Giants’ momentum in this game.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
The Giants are getting timely hitting right now. Thairo Estrada hit a huge walk-off homer against the Pirates on Sunday, and the confidence from that game flowed into Monday night’s win over Arizona, with San Francisco scoring six runs in three consecutive innings to win a fourth straight game. The Giants are watching the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres struggle, which gives them a small but real chance of getting back into the hunt in the National League wild card race. You wouldn’t want to bet money that the Giants will win that wild card chase, but they’re 5.5 games out of the final wild card spot in mid-August. Worse odds and larger deficits have been overcome to gain playoff berths. The Giants have a chance to play themselves back into contention, and they know that against the D-Backs, they can pile up wins.
Final Diamondbacks-Giants Prediction & Pick
This is a classic stay-away game: The Giants are the better team and are on a roll, but the D-Backs have the superior pitcher with Kelly going against Junis. Just sit back and wait for a better betting play to emerge on Wednesday (or in another game). If you insist on a pick, go with Merrill Kelly and Arizona.
Final Diamondbacks-Giants Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5
