Most assumed after Kevin Durant left the Golden State Warriors in 2019 that their time atop the NBA mountain had come to an end.
There appeared to be significant evidence to support that school of thought when the Warriors spent the 2019-20 in the cellar as Stephen Curry joined Klay Thompson in being sidelined through injury, and an Achilles injury suffered by the latter helped leave Golden State ill-equipped to compete in 2020-21.
But after a season in which the Warriors meshed championship experience and difference-making youth, Golden State heads into the 2022-23 campaign back at the summit having seen off the Boston Celtics in six games in last term’s NBA Finals.
Curry added the missing component of his Hall of Fame resume, winning Finals MVP for the first time in his illustrious career, and he and the Warriors are the bookmakers’ favorites to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy for the fifth time in nine seasons.
Yet their build-up to the new campaign is a reminder of the many obstacles, including internal ones, that can scupper hopes of sustained success, with Thompson held out of exhibition games in his first preseason since 2018-19 and an altercation between Draymond Green and Jordan Poole in which the former punched his young teammate, overshadowing Golden State’s preparations for a push for a second successive title.
It is an extremely difficult situation to navigate with both Green and Poole looking to receive lucrative contract extensions, and whether the Warriors can overcome the discord between two key players will play a huge role in their ability to successfully defend their crown, but what will be the other key factors, and who will be their primary competition? Stats Perform looks at the Warriors’ odds of fending off their rivals and improving their standing among the best dynasties in NBA history.
Staying strong on defense
Although Curry was the obvious centerpiece of the Warriors’ championship push, they would not have regained the title without the defensive strength displayed throughout the campaign.
Golden State allowed 105.5 points per game, the third-fewest in the NBA, with opponents shooting just 43.8 percent against them from the field. Only the Celtics (43.4 per cent) fared better in that respect.
Although those numbers ballooned to 111.9 points per game and a field goal percentage of 48 in the postseason overall, the Warriors’ Finals performance was in part defined by four stellar defensive performances.
Indeed, in each of their four Finals wins, the Warriors did not allow the Celtics to score 100 points. Boston’s average points total across those games was 92.25. For context, the lowest points per game total in the regular season was the Oklahoma City Thunder’s 103.7.
Although his standing is probably at an all-time low after the incident with Poole, Green is still the heartbeat of the defense. His defensive rating of 102.8 was the sixth-best among players to have featured in at least 50 regular-season games last season.
Green never lacks for motivation, but the fact that he does not have an extension from Golden State and probably lost a lot of leverage after his fight with Poole may add even more fuel to his eternal fire. Andrew Wiggins (defensive rating – 105.4), whose defense on Jayson Tatum in the Finals drew effusive praise will also be key to the Warriors’ success in containing opponents, while Kevon Looney (107.2) and returning veteran Andre Iguodala (97 in 31 games) will be tasked with providing crucial support on the defensive end.
Yet with Gary Payton II (102.2) and Otto Porter Jr. (103.2) departing for pastures new in free agency, the Warriors must replace the impact they had off the bench if they are to remain one of the NBA’s premier defensive teams. While the Warriors made a free-agent addition with their defense in mind, there will be a significant onus on recent high-profile draft selections to have a consistent influence on that end of the floor.
The kids are (hopefully) alright
The Warriors did move to address the departures of Payton and Porter by signing Donte DiVincenzo, a member of the Milwaukee Bucks’ championship-winning team whose defensive rating of 108.9 since entering the NBA in 2018 is tied for 43rd among players to have featured in at at least 200 games in that span.
But the Warriors will also have been comfortable letting Payton and Porter walk because of the faith they have in recent draft picks to contribute on the defensive end.
Jonathan Kuminga finished his rookie year level with Payton for rebounds per 48 minutes with 9.5, and he was fourth on the team with 7.3 defensive boards per 48 minutes. The Warriors will look for him to use his exciting athleticism to harness that same efficiency over a higher number of minutes in 2022-23.
Moses Moody, the second of the Warriors’ two 2021 first-rounders, had five defensive rebounds per 48 minutes and is seen as a player who could thrive as a three-and-d player at the highest level.
The three-ball provided significant space for rookie Patrick Baldwin Jr. in the Warriors’ second of two games with the Washington Wizards in Japan, in which he went four of five from deep. Any first-year success for Baldwin would be a luxury for Golden State. By contrast, they will likely view third-year strides from former second overall pick James Wiseman as a necessity.
Wiseman did not feature in the Warriors’ championship campaign due to setbacks in his recovery from the torn meniscus that ended his rookie year. He has played only 39 games in the NBA having featured in just three in college, but the flashes he produced in his first year and in this year’s Summer League provided evidence that he can blossom into a dynamic center at both ends of the court for a team that has long since lacked a definitive answer at the 5 spot.
The Warriors do not lack answers in the frontcourt. The question they face this season is how they will divide the minutes of the three players who produced pivotal play at guard last campaign.
Stick with the Splash Brothers or go to the Poole party?
The Splash Brothers finally reunited last season as Thompson made his long-awaited return from injury after over two years on the sidelines.
By the time he made his comeback, the Warriors already had a 29-9 record, with their success in large part down to the combination Curry had formed with Poole, the Warriors’ 2019 first-round pick who blossomed into a key part of their rotation.
Poole averaged 30 minutes a game in his third season and a career-high 18.5 points per game despite giving his starting role back to Thompson.
Across a much smaller sample size of 32 games compared to Poole’s 76, Thompson averaged 20.4 points in his comeback season, although there is a case to be made that the Warriors were more effective with Poole on the court.
Poole had a plus-minus per game of 4.3 to Thompson’s 2.1 and had a marginally better field goal percentage. Thompson shot 42.9 percent from the field while Poole converted on 44.8 percent of field goal attempts.
As Thompson went cold in the NBA Finals, shooting at a 35.6 percent clip, Poole shot 43.5 percent against the Celtics and rattled through half of his field goal attempts in the postseason overall.
It is too early, though, to make the judgment that Thompson’s best days are behind him and head coach Steve Kerr should lean more towards the energetic Poole. The challenge for Kerr is to find balance between relying on the spot-up ability of arguably the best catch-and-shoot player of the modern era and the young spark-plug with a well-rounded offensive game who can produce dazzling finishes at the basket and confuse defenses with deep shooting.
Even if Kerr, who has suggested Thompson could play power forward this season, initially struggles to find that balance, it is unlikely to stop the Warriors from thriving, as long as Curry is available to Golden State. Curry’s plus-minus per game of 7.9 was the second-best in the NBA last campaign, one that ended with him silencing any critics questioning his resume by averaging 31.2 points per game in the six games with the Celtics to win his first Finals MVP award .
The need for the right mix of Curry, Thompson and Poole will come if the former endures a drop-off, but having three players of their talents allows Kerr to be more experimental in the regular season and better preserve the two-time MVP for the postseason, when those looking to dethrone the Warriors will face the substantial challenge of trying to stymie his enduring brilliance.
West rivals flawed, but Bucks could set up mouth-watering Finals
The Warriors aren’t short of challengers blessed with star power in the Western Conference, but it’s tough to pick out many who have an overall roster that looks as strong as the one Kerr has at his disposal.
While the Phoenix Suns have an established but still youthful core that could allow them to push the Warriors, they are coming off an extremely chaotic offseason and will again be relying on 38-year-old Chris Paul as creator-in-chief. Curry’s history of success against the ‘Point God’ suggests that it is a matchup stacked firmly in Golden State’s favor.
By contrast, Kawhi Leonard has consistently been a thorn in the side of the Warriors and he and Paul George will hope to lead a success-starved Los Angeles Clippers franchise to glory. However, such hopes rely on Leonard returning to his best in the wake of a long lay-off with a partially torn ACL. Similarly, the Denver Nuggets have the back-to-back MVP in Nikola Jokic, but his support comes from players in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. who are both returning from long spells on the sideline. Without that pair, the Warriors breezed to a 4-1 first-round win over the Nuggets last season.
That was also the margin in the Western Conference Finals as the Warriors beat Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Simply put, the Slovenian superstar did not have enough around him, especially on defense, for the Mavs to compete with Golden State, and the Memphis Grizzlies were ill-equipped to upset the Warriors once Ja Morant went out with a knee injury in the previous round.
The problem is the same for so many teams in the West, who do not have the depth to beat the Warriors over seven games. The Los Angeles Lakers possess a star-studded lineup with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook on the roster, but Darvin Ham has too many problems to fix surrounding their chemistry and even getting that trio on the court at the same time for the Lakers to be considered a legitimate threat to Golden State at this stage.
It is in the Eastern Conference where the teams that have the best shot of dethroning the Warriors reside. For all the drama in Brooklyn, the combination of Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons is still one that could deliver a title if their respective talents can be harnessed by Steve Nash, and former Net James Harden and Joel Embiid offer the Philadelphia 76ers a duo that could deliver a long-awaited championship.
Erik Spoelstra’s coaching, Jimmy Butler’s frequently tireless performances and the well-rounded nature of their roster makes the Miami Heat a tough team to rule out but, in terms of top-end talent and depth, it is the Celtics and the non-Miami team they beat in seven games last season, the Milwaukee Bucks, who stand as the Warriors’ biggest threats.
The Celtics’ offseason was overshadowed by the scandal surrounding suspended head coach Ime Udoka, but they are led by two stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who are both 25 or under and should be better for the experience of losing in the Finals.
Yet the argument could be made that the Celtics would never have gotten beyond the second round had the Bucks had Khris Middleton available for Game 7.
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s athleticism, length and all-round skill set still makes him the most physically fearsome player in the NBA and, when both Middleton and Jrue Holiday are healthy, the Bucks have a big three to rival any team in scoring, facilitation and defense.
Milwaukee had eight players average at least nine points last year and seven are still on the team. Plenty can and will change over the course of a long season but, heading into a year in which everyone will be desperate to knock them off, the team most likely to prevent the Warriors from retaining the trophy is the team that lifted it before them.
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