When the Dallas Mavericks drafted Luka Doncic in the 2018 NBA Draft, they knew they were getting a special player. However, not even they could’ve predicted the amount of success Doncic has achieved throughout his first four seasons in the league.
At the conclusion of last season, some of Doncic’s biggest NBA accomplishments include: three All-Star appearances, three All-NBA First Team selections, 12 playoff wins with one Western Conference finals appearance, and 46 triple-doubles, which is already the 10th most in league history.
To put into perspective just how good Doncic has been over the last four years, as well as how good he could become in the future, D Magazine’s Iztok Franko did a “scientific inquiry” on Doncic’s rise to stardom compared to other current and former players dating back to 1999. This model followed a similar exercise done by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, who analyzed when NBA players typically reach their peaks.
“The predicted peak BPM (Box Plus/Minus) value for Doncic based on his last three seasons is 11.4. Unless you’re a stats nerd like me, this number doesn’t tell you much, so let me put it in perspective. That predicted BPM of 11.4 would be the eighth-best individual season since 1999.”
Only four players since 1999 have had a BPM higher than what is projected for Doncic next season: LeBron James (3x), Nikola Jokic (2x), Giannis Antetokounmpo and Steph Curry. And as Franko points out in his analysis, each of those seasons ended with those players winning the MVP award.
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“Our predicted peak BPM value of 11.4 is 39 percent above the 8.2 mark Doncic hit last year, an estimate not so far from a much more sophisticated FiveThirtyEight ‘Wins Above Replacement’ projections that expects Luka’s peak to come at age 27, at a 33 percent improvement over his 2021-22 performance,” writes Franko.
“So as much fun as you’ve had watching him so far, know everything we’ve seen should be something like two-thirds as good as it will get. Which would be crazy. … He is far ahead of a typical superstar career trajectory, after all, so another ‘unexpected’ leap would not surprise me.”
The numbers back up what our eyes have seen over the last four years: Luka Doncic isn’t just one of the best players in the NBA today, he’s on pace to be one of the greatest players of all time. The 2022-23 season could be his best yet.
You can follow Dalton Trigg on Twitter at @dalton_trigg
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