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Dach vs. Nazar, 2023 NHL Draft and Tim Stützle’s value: Pronman’s Mailbag

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The NHL season is right around the corner, with hockey already starting in other leagues. I asked you all what was on your mind and did my best to answer!

Chicago essentially traded Kirby Dach for Frank Nazar, and I’m wondering who would you rather have and why? — Brady S.

Great question from Brady! On the surface level, Dach is clearly the better hockey player. He’s a lot bigger, not as good a skater as Nazar but not that far off, and while Nazar is much more competitive, Dach has a more natural offensive touch. Dach was a No. 3 pick for a reason. He’s a rare combination of tools between his frame, feet, skill and vision down the middle.

Dach is far from perfect though. There’s a reason why Chicago traded him. He’s a very frustrating player. Going back to his draft season in 2019, it was inconceivable how a player with his tools, who played as much as he did for Saskatoon in the WHL, was barely over a point per game in junior. He could dominate a game, as he did in the first round of his playoff series that year, and had a stretch where he had three points in 14 games.

He can be a frustrating player and I understand why Chicago wanted to move on for what looks like will be a long, painful rebuild in Chicago. They get to turn back the clock a bit, and get Nazar for longer, with more cheap years.

With all that said I would still prefer Dach, even with his imperfections. You trade that player and will basically be trying to replace him shortly after (ie with Adam Fantilli in the upcoming draft). Nazar is a great player, but Dach could be a true first-line center if you get him right.

Basically every outlet I read on hockey talks about how the next draft is supposed to be loaded with high-end talent. Not that I doubt them but it really surprises me considering that almost all of these prospects would have lost a year of development to COVID-19. Is this just pure chance or do you think it speaks to how personal training and skills coaching can be more helpful for young talent to excel than mostly on-ice game action? — Christian P.

I’ve been doing this for a while and I’ve heard this song often. I feel like I answer some iteration of how the next draft is amazing every summer. We know very little about these players. There are signs it could be a strong class, particularly at forward, but a lot is going to change between now and June, and even then we won’t know! That won’t stop me from giving you my opinion though.

How many prospects, and which ones specifically, do you think will make the Red Wings full-time this season? — Chris C.

Simon Edvinsson I think it is 50-50 to make it. Jonatan Berggren has an outside chance but is probably more of a call-up. I think most of their prospects have a better chance of being injury- or performance-issue call-ups rather than stealing a veteran’s job in camp. I could see defensemen like Donovan Sebrango, Albert Johansson or Jared McIsaac getting games if guys go down for example.

When you reflect back on highly-rated prospects that didn’t make it in the NHL, what stands out? Is the mental aspect not there? Is that trait underappreciated/most difficult to assess? — John D.

There’s never one true reason. Sometimes you got the skill set wrong. Sometimes there were outside variables that interfered (ie bad luck). I do find a disproportionate number of times there is a mental/character issue though. I’ve grown to appreciate why so many NHL sources I talk to are so adamant about high-character guys, because they’ve been burned by that issue so many times or have seen others be burned.

What are your thoughts on several recent top Canadian prospects opting for the USHL to NCAA route before being drafted (Owen Power, Adam Fantilli, Macklin Celebrini, etc.)? When does the CHL hit the panic button, and what can they do about it? — Logan H.

It used to happen a decent amount before the 2005 CBA. The USHL playing during COVID-19 was probably a mild factor, but it could just be a cycle that ends sometime soon. Time will tell.

Your thoughts on how much money they are giving these young, unproven (IMHO) players these days? Tim Stützle, Rob Thomas, Tage Thompson, etc. — Denis D.

Since both players are locked up to similar eight-year and $8-plus million AAV contracts, who has a better chance of providing surplus value on that contract, Jack Hughes or Tim Stützle? — Kirby C.

I’m combining the above two questions since they hit on similar themes. In general, I don’t have an issue with these deals. It’s a two-way risk. Yes, the deals could go poorly for the clubs if the players don’t develop well, but they could also go very well for the clubs.

You look at Carolina signing Jaccob Slavin to his seven-year deal at $5.3 million AAV or Roman Josi signing his seven-year deal at $4 million AAV coming off his entry-level deal. I remember those contracts, particularly Josi’s, being criticized in some corners of the internet and obviously the teams were laughing all the way to the bank by the end of them.

From the players’ perspective, they may be leaving slightly more money on the table for their UFA years, but turning down that much guaranteed dough is hard to do!

I think it’s very possible Hughes, Stützle, Thomas and Thompson can all be worth their deals, even if not right away for some of them. The Thompson deal in particular seems to be getting carved up, which is strange to me. I don’t expect 38 goals again, but he’s a huge center with great skill and can rip it. He’s not a burner but he looks like a really good player to me who can be an excellent top-two line center for a while who sits around 28 to 32 goals over an 82-game pace. Is that worth $7 million today? Maybe not? In three-to-four years for sure. I like him and Dylan Cozens a lot as Buffalo’s No. 1 and no. 2 centers of the future.

I would also take Hughes over Stützle; My U23 ranking basically said as much. That said, I don’t mind Ottawa doing that deal when you see how many high-end guys have walked from that club over the years. A young, high-end talent wants to commit to you for eight years? You can throw him a few extra hundred thousand to sweeten the pot.

After a partial first season, do you think Matt Boldy has a chance to be an elite forward? His points per game were pretty good. You said that Minnesota has a lot of quality prospects but none are elite. Which do you think may have the potential to be an elite player if their tools are more fully developed? Thanks Corey! —Brian T.

I do think Boldy has the potential to be an NHL All-Star, even if I project him as more of a solid first-line winger and below that threshold. He’s so skilled and smart and has been so good as a pro. I wouldn’t be surprised if, by this time next year, I’ve moved on that projection, but due to his skating I want to wait a little bit more before tabbing him as a true star.


Matt Boldy. (Matt Blewett/USA Today)

Any goalies of interest in the next draft? — Colton S.

Michael Hrabal looked legit at the Hlinka Gretzky. I think he’s a top-two-round pick every day as long as his USHL season goes well enough.

The college vs. The major junior debate is usually that players get more off-ice training in college but more game experience in juniors. Do you see this reflected in prospects? In other words, do college prospects seem like they’re in better shape while CHL players have better hockey sense/instincts? — Ryan P.

I’ve watched a lot of players come through those levels and I don’t really think it makes much of a difference. Make a call based on what you and your family want, but if you think there’s some distinct advantage hockey-wise depending on style of player or talent level, you’re probably overthinking it.

Do you expect Simon Nemec to start the year with the Devils or in the AHL? Do you think there is a path with the big club for him this year and what production can we expect from him? — Dominic G.

I would like to give him one more year outside the league, although I don’t think it’s crazy for him to be in the NHL right away. I’d like to see him develop physically a little more and play in the AHL, given it’ll be a big jump from Slovakia’s top league. Regarding production, it’ll be interesting a few years from now how the power-play time is divided up in New Jersey. Nemec, Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes all have legit claims to be the PP1 guy. Do they run two defensemen on the top unit in time?

Everyone is talking about 2023 being a potentially groundbreaking NHL Draft — Connor Bedard, Matvei Michkov and perhaps Fantilli, and quality prospects deep into the first or perhaps even second round. But what is up with 2024? I haven’t even heard of a 2024 prospect with even Shane Wright-level potential. Is there a chance 2024 will be at least as good as 2022’s average-ish draft? Or should we all be snoozing on 2024 and wait for 2025 when Michael Misa could prove to be a superstar-in-waiting? —Glenn M.

Yeah, I wouldn’t say there’s a true standout 2024 prospect yet. I think the internet will say Finland’s Aron Kiviharju, who is super smart and a great skater. But it’s hard to say a 5-foot-9 defenseman (Kiviharju) is a projected No. 1 pick unless he just blows doors down over the next two years. Macklin Celebrini looks like the early guy to me, but I honestly don’t know how 2024 is going to look. That’s what the next season will be for.

Regarding 2025 eligibles, I only watched them at Canada’s U17 camp but fellow 2025 Roger McQueen looked twice the player Misa was at that event.

Corey, from an analytics perspective, what type of information do you value most to help you make decisions about a forward prospect’s upside and projection? — Matthew M.

The data at lower levels is still limited, even if growing. There are third parties that are tracking micro stats now, but whether they have predictive value for projecting to the NHL is something that still needs to be studied. We know scoring correlates to NHL projection, we also know scoring adjusted for variables like age, league quality and team quality correlates to NHL projection. In short, I’m looking for anything that can indicate:

1) Skill level (usually shown in scoring ability).

And…

2) Ability to play up levels (usually shown in how he performs in higher-pace/harder environments).

Do you believe this is the start of a resurgence of Slovakian hockey or a fun blip? Will we see Slovakia eventually push past rivals Czechia and challenge the Big 5? Will we see NHL teams dedicate more resources to scouting the Tipos Extraliga? —Justin P.

Likely more of a blip, same with the German cycle we saw for a few years and now they’re back to making us watch awful age groups. That being said, for those countries, even a blip like the two they’ve had could be game-changers. You watch Germany in the world championships the last few years, and while they’re not true contenders, they’re not pushovers just because you add a couple extra real players and it changes the complexion of their rosters.

Do you think Luke Hughes has the tools to be an overall better player than his brother, Quinn? — Stefan K.

I don’t know about better, but similar type of pure talent level I would say, albeit shown in a different way as Luke is so much bigger but Quinn has more offensive touch with his playmaking.

Thanks for all of your great work, Corey. Is there a center prospect out there the Rangers could realistically acquire for Nils Lundkvist? — Tim K.

I know he’s become a fan favorite so try not to take my head off for suggesting this to Ottawa fans, but I think a Ridly Greig for Lundkvist swap would make sense for both sides. Ottawa has their centers of the future (Stützle, Josh Norris, Shane Pinto) and a need for another legit top-four defenseman to that great group they’re building. My guess is even though I have Lundkvist rated slightly ahead of Greig, Ottawa wouldn’t do that, as Greig is far more the type of player they value than a smaller offensive defenseman who doesn’t have a high-end motor.

(Top photo of Kirby Dach: Raj Mehta / USA Today)

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