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COVID’s long-term effect on Major League Baseball’s amateur draft

Brayden Taylor had no chance, really. A good-hitting shortstop at Copper Hills High School in Utah, he was hoping to be drafted following his senior season in 2020.

But just as baseball was beginning to ramp up in the colder-weather states, it was shut down by the COVID pandemic. Taylor never got the opportunity to show how he had grown over the winter or refined his skills.

Instead, he became part of Major League Baseball’s COVID draft class of 2023. It worked out for him, as Taylor raised his game and his profile as a college player at TCU. On July 9, he was picked in the first round by the Rays, No. 19 overall.

Taylor recognizes that the extra time in college helped him reach his goals in the long run.

“Huge, huge credit to TCU for allowing me to go out there and prove myself and continue to get better with those guys each and every day,” he said. “I am grateful for all the experience that I’ve had and all the coaches and all the teammates that I’ve had the pleasure of being around and kind of developing myself and each other each and every day. So, that’s probably you know, one biggest credit.”

The 2023 draft was filled with stories of players developing in college. It was older and more experienced, and considered one of the deepest in recent MLB history, ironically due to the lingering effects of the pandemic. In 2020, as baseball — and most of the world — was put on pause, MLB decided to hold its draft but limit it to five rounds.

The decision had long-term effects that carried into this year’s draft. Players who went early in 2023 might not have been taken at all in the smaller 2020 class.

“Three years ago with a five-round draft, it may not have gotten there, and it probably adds depth to the college level,” Rays director of amateur scouting Chuck Ricci said. “You never know how it would go, but a few kids that maybe got off to maybe not the start they wanted or they were in cold weather in their high school seasons really never got a chance to get going.

“I think they ended up in college, and without those 15 rounds you never know. But I think there were many more options in college baseball (this year) than there normally are.”

Case in point: Dylan Crews, taken second overall by the Washington Nationals in this year’s draft. His 2020 season started slowly, and he withdrew from the draft. He went to LSU, won a national championship and raised his stock, resulting in a bigger payday following his junior season in Baton Rouge.

2020 also marked the beginning of big changes for the draft, ESPN baseball insider and draft analyst Kylie McDaniel said. In December 2020, MLB dissolved 42 minor league teams, cutting down on the number of players that needed to be taken. Then, baseball permanently reduced the draft to just 20 rounds. Fewer draftees, McDaniel pointed out, will eliminate the chance for unsung players like Matt Carpenter or Mike Piazza, both late-round picks, to come through the draft.

It also resulted in a 2023 draft pool that was more mature and had more college experience.

“That whole ecosystem got disrupted starting at the pandemic and is, like, sort of starting to settle now, and now we’re seeing more guys playing in colleges that are 23 and 24,” McDaniel said. “There’s all kinds of second- and third- and fourth-order effects that we’re kind of seeing happen now.”

It had a trickle-down effect that baseball started to see this year.

Talented high school players who weren’t taken in those five rounds in 2020 had to go to college if they wanted to continue their baseball careers. The result was a 2023 class that was the deepest that MLB scouts had seen since 2011 — a draft that produced headliners like Gerrit Cole, Francisco Lindor, George Springer and Anthony Rendon.

For a player like Taylor, it gave him a chance to grow physically and in his game. He helped TCU reach the College World Series, hitting .308 with 23 home runs and 70 RBIs in 2023. He was a first-team All-Big 12 selection and MVP of the conference tournament.

“I think he probably made a really good decision to go to TCU,” Ricci said. “He got stronger every year he was there, and (with) his game and his power. I think we saw him in high school, and he was always a really good baseball player, but he just needed to take that next jump physically. And I think when you have a hitter that gets stronger that has that hit profile, all of a sudden the power comes to become a complete hitter.”

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