Last place in an NFL division is supposed to be reserved for the overmatched and the quarterback-less.
And yet as the Denver Broncos fumbled away two would-be touchdowns, mismanaged the fourth-quarter clock and saw a 64-yard field goal attempt sail wide as time expired to seal a Week 1 loss, a strange thought crept in the brain: Is this the win-that-got-away that will decide last place in the AFC West at the end of the season?
Expectations are that the AFC West could be historically good this season, especially if quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs), Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers), Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) and Russell Wilson (Broncos) stay healthy. With three wild cards in the expanded 14-team playoff format, it is possible for an entire division to make the postseason for the first time in NFL history, but it is far more likely that one loaded team will go home after Week 18 wondering…
“How did we finish last?”
There has not been a last-place finisher with a winning record in the modern era (since 1970), but 13 cellar-dwellers went 8-8. Barring a tie, a .500 record is no longer possible with a 17-game schedule, but if four of the AFC’s best five teams reside in the AFC West, they could win enough other games to go 9-8 and bring up the rear .
In other words, the margin for error has never been thinner.
“It’s going to be a game of attrition — who’s healthy, when are they healthy? — because the rosters all look great now, but what is it going to look like Week 8?” FOX analyst Jonathan Vilma told The Post. “And then, who is winning those close games and how are they winning those games? Are they lucking out on missed field goals or driving down the field with two minutes left?”
A concern expressed in conversations with some inside the division is that the AFC West might cannibalize itself over each team’s six head-to-head games, including Chargers-Chiefs on Thursday night. Except that in all but two of nine cases (2002 AFC East and 2002 AFC West), a division with a .500 last-place team fielded multiple playoff participants. Of the three times multiple teams in a division tied for last at 8-8, twice all the winning teams went to the playoffs (1995 AFC West and 1999 AFC East).
Using point differential as a barometer, the best last-place team was the 1989 Bengals, who, one year after playing in the Super Bowl, outscored opponents by 119 points (third-best in the NFL), but finished 8-8. The 2008 Saints, led by Vilma, 2002 Chiefs, 1995 Broncos and 2007 Eagles each were at least +36 in years when other last-place teams were finishing with point differentials as high as -249.
Quintin Mikell was a defensive back on the 2007 Eagles, who beat the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed and lost by four points or less to the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, as well as both Super Bowl teams. A three-game losing streak — two without quarterback Donovan McNabb and all plus three more without safety Brian Dawkins — was all it took to ruin the season.
“That team was much better than an 8-8 record,” said Mikell, who co-hosts the “Q&A” show on the “Inside the Birds” podcast network. “It was a weird year where we lost a lot of close games. That division was so stacked, and it almost felt like every game was a playoff game.”
If Andy Reid’s six-time defending division champion Chiefs are headed towards last at any point, Mikell thinks they could rely on a distinct coaching advantage. A sinking feeling can set in when a team is winning but not gaining any ground in the standings, as happened when the Cowboys started 12-1 and the Giants enjoyed a six-game winning streak to keep the Eagles, then coached by Reid, in a hole.
“Andy Reid was like a psychology major,” Mikell said. “He was really good at keeping the team grounded and focused on what we could control, but outside of the practice facility, you are still wondering, ‘Damn, these guys keep winning?'”
Vilma was on a 4-12 last-place team with the Jets in 2005. The feeling was much different with the Saints, who came into 2009 with a motto of “Finish!” and won the Super Bowl. Staying at sea level despite a crazy amount of injuries in 2008 had actually inspired belief rather than the woebegone feeling of a missed opportunity.
“To keep the conversation short, last place is last place,” said Vilma. “But the difference was we went through four or five quarterbacks that year with the Jets, and if you do that, then you don’t have a chance in the NFL. There were games with those Jets where guys didn’t care if we won or lost — they were getting ready for the offseason. Flip to the Saints, and our last game was against Carolina going for the No. 2 seed, and we were so geeked to play as hard as we could.”
Whether it was Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett’s foolish decision to kick the field goal instead of leaving Wilson on the field for fourth-and-5 in Week 1, something that happens during the Chiefs-Chargers game to kick off Week 2 or something else down the road, one of the best last-place teams of all time will have its fate sealed.
Backup generator
If there is an NFL player who is thrown into the fire under unusual circumstances more often than quarterback Jacoby Brissett, I’d like to write his story.
Brissett’s first two career starts came for the 2016 Patriots when Tom Brady was suspended and Jimmy Garoppolo was hurt. He made another 15 for the 2019 Colts after Andrew Luck surprisingly retired about two weeks before the start of the season. And now he is the fill-in starter for Deshaun Watson, whose Browns debut will come after he serves an 11-game suspension.
All that Brissett did as the forgotten quarterback in a Week 1 matchup was spoil counterpart Baker Mayfield’s revenge game by leading the Browns over the Panthers. The Jets and Cowboys can only wish for the same success playing backups.
The Jets are about to start Joe Flacco for the second straight week. Flacco is a former Super Bowl MVP, but his last win as a starter was Oct. 12, 2019, for the Broncos. He is 0-7 since then for the Broncos and Jets (with bench time for the Eagles mixed in).
The Cowboys are expected to start Cooper Rush — who threw for 325 yards against the Vikings last year in his only career start — with Dak Prescott sidelined against the Bengals. Since May 2020, Rush has been cut twice by the Cowboys and once by the quarterback-needy Giants.
The Post asked a few league sources for help slotting the NFL’s 32 second-string quarterbacks into different tiers. Here are the consensus results, ranked from backups who inspire the most confidence to the least:
If Geno Smith can become a starter again, so can he (5): Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers), Gardner Minshew (Eagles), Taylor Heinicke (Commanders), Teddy Bridgewater (Dolphins), Jacoby Brissett* (Browns).
Will keep his team afloat in a small sample size (4): Tyrod Taylor (Giants), Andy Dalton (Saints), Case Keenum (Bills), Colt McCoy** (Cardinals).
Show-me-more youngsters (5): Kenny Pickett (Steelers), Desmond Ridder (Falcons), Malik Willis (Titans), Tyler Huntley (Ravens), Jordan Love (Packers).
More name than game at this point (4): Sam Darnold** (Panthers), Joe Flacco* (Jets), Nick Foles (Colts), Drew Lock (Seahawks).
Is he still in the NFL? (7): Chad Henne (Chiefs), Chase Daniel (Chargers), Brian Hoyer (Patriots), Blaine Gabbert (Buccaneers), Nate Sudfeld (Lions), Trevor Siemian (Bears), Cooper Rush* (Cowboys).
You sure he’s not a QB3? (7): CJ Beathard (Jaguars), Kyle Allen (Texans), Brandon Allen (Bengals), Brett Rypien (Broncos), Jarrett Stidham (Raiders), John Wolford (Rams), Nick Mullens (Vikings).
* Quarterbacks expected to start Week 2 due to injury or suspension
** Second-stringers when healthy, although currently on injured reserve
College football game to watch
No. 13 Miami at No. 24 at Texas A&M, Saturday, 9 p.m., ESPN: It’s not a great weekend college slate, with only two matchups of ranked teams. Looking for a game-within-the-game aspect, it could be fun to watch two potential first-round picks go head-to-head when Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (73.3 percent completion rate, 454 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT in two games) has the ball in his hands against Texas A&M safety Antonio Johnson (17 tackles, 1 sack in two games).
Joe Marino, co-founder of The Draft Network, shared his thoughts on Van Dyke and Johnson with The Post:
“Van Dyke is not being talked about enough in this rising crop of quarterbacks. He has a big arm and more mobility than expected for his size. As he continues to mature and solidify his processing skills, Van Dyke has the makeup of an NFL starter.
“Johnson is a physical and instinctive defender that lines up all over the field for the Aggies defense. He plays fast with a rapid trigger, which leads to him always being around the football. His football intelligence, aggressive demeanor, physicality and versatility make him a highly appealing prospect.”
Giants general manager Joe Schoen saw four top quarterback prospects — Ohio State’s CJ Stroud, Alabama’s Bryce Young, Florida’s Anthony Richardson and Kentucky’s Will Levis — play in-person during a four-game, four-city tour over eight days earlier this month. It’s safe to assume Van Dyke is on the list to see soon.
Parting thoughts
- Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco — a seventh-round draft pick from Rutgers — threw the ball against the padded wall after scoring his first NFL touchdown in the Chiefs’ win last week. As other teammates celebrated with him, the biggest star on the field, quarterback Patrick Mahomes, alertly and humbly chased down the football to give to Pacheco as a keepsake.
- Indianapolis needs to stop giving away AFC South wins to be seen as a legitimate AFC contender. The Colts lost the 2021 regular-season finale to the Jaguars with a playoff berth on the line, and trailed the Texans by 17 points last week before rallying for a tie. Next up is a long-awaited rematch with the Jaguars, who are 4-4 against the Colts and 11-46 against the rest of the NFL since 2018 — the year after reaching the AFC Championship Game.
- The Lions (against the Commanders) and Giants (against the Panthers) both are favored Sunday. They have the two longest active streaks as underdogs at 24 and 15 games, respectively, according to Caesars Sportsbook. The last time both teams were favored in the same week was Oct. 18, 2020. The last time they both won on the same day was a few weeks later on Dec. 6. If nothing changes before Sunday, the Lions’ streak will end just shy of the Jets’ mark of 26 straight games as an underdog, snapped late last season.
.