The Cincinnati Bengals are arguably the hottest team in the NFL. They’ve won five in a row and seven of their last eight games. Only the San Francisco 49ers have won more games in a row (seven), but you wonder how far quarterback Brock Purdy can take them. Head-to-head, my money would be on Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
We’re Going Streaking…
Five in a row and seven out of eight is no small task. Of the teams faced over that span, however, only two have a winning record. That’s not Cincinnati’s fault, you can only beat the teams across the field from you, but is it making this streak somewhat inflated?
No. No it’s not.
In the last eight games, the Bengals’ offense is averaging 28.4 points per game, while their defense is allowing 22. For reference, the NFL leader in points per game this season is the Philadelphia Eagles with 29.7, so the Bengals’ 28.4 would place them third in the NFL if extrapolated over a full season. The defense has allowed a little more than their season average (20.4) but would only drop from 11th to 12th if that was their full season average.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter. The offense is scoring at will and well outscoring what their defense is allowing. Even in shootouts against teams that shouldn’t be putting up that many points (New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers), the Bengals’ offense is just too much for most defenses to handle.
While the Buccaneers are allowing just 19.5 points per game this season, their defense is massacred by injuries. They’ve been without their two starting safeties and slot corner the last two games, Shaquil Barrett went out for the year in Week 8, Vita Vea and Jamel Dean are likely out. Even if the Bengals don’t have Tee Higgins or Tyler Boyd this week, the Tampa Bay defense is so decimated, the offense should easily continue the pace they’ve been on during this winning streak.
The 35 points the Bucs allowed to the 49ers are the most since they gave up 41 to the Chiefs in Week 4. Following the Chiefs game, they allowed just 15 in Week 5. In fact, over the last two seasons the Buccaneers defense has allowed an opposing team to score 30+ points seven times. The following week, the Bucs have allowed more than 20 points just twice. That said, those games didn’t see the level of injuries the Bucs are dealing with right now.
…But Any Given Sunday
Look, the Buccaneers are not a good football team this year. For whatever reason, and I have multiple theories, they look like a pedestrian football team with no path to return to the level we saw from them in the last two seasons.
Despite their struggles, they still have Tom Brady. On top of that, they still have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Leonard Fournette, and the emerging Rachaad White. Although they’ve scored 20 or more points just three times this season (1-2). you can’t count out their ability to do so in the blink of an eye.
For those who don’t know, I cover the Buccaneers for Locked On Bucs and other outlets and have done so for nearly a decade. I’ve watched this team very closely and know what they are capable of. A lot of the disappointment this season comes from being “very close” rather than actually connecting. There have been deep passes to all the aforementioned receivers that were anywhere from a few inches to a few yards away from connecting. There have been runs by Fournette and White where there was nothing but green grass if it hadn’t been for a shoestring tackle. And there are the self-inflicted wounds like touchdowns back-to-back weeks taken off the board by holding calls.
It’s a wild dichotomy where the Bucs are both better and worse than what their record would tell you. That said, don’t overlook this team. This can’t be a situation where the Bengals walk in thinking the Bucs will be a pushover. They have all the weapons and experience a fan would want from their team and it only takes a few plays to find a rhythm and start to get hot.
The Bengals have their own injury issues to deal with and with their banged up secondary, the Tampa Bay receiving corps is a scary proposition. Godwin could wind up with 15 receptions and be the third down conversion guy. Even though Evans is a future Hall of Famer, Godwin is the most talented receiver that will take the field Sunday not named Ja’Marr Chase.
All conventional wisdom tells us the Bengals should and will win this game. They are the better team right now, their quarterback is playing better right now, they have the better coaching staff right now, but just don’t overlook an underperforming Tampa Bay. The vast majority of the roster was hoisting a Lombardi two years ago and they are still loaded with talent. You just never know when they’re going to snap out of the funk they’re in.
Extra Points
The Bengals’ five game winning streak is their longest since 2015 when they opened the season with eight straight wins. The Bengals can break that by winning out and in doing so could end up the top seed in the AFC.
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