This Oklahoma City Thunder core always felt like it was a good team just waiting to be unleashed. A big portion of the glimpses we have is thanks to the head coach Mark Daignault and his ability to get the most out of his players. The front office has done a great job at identifying good players at the draft and they finally have the makings of a strong and consistent basketball team.
But the biggest difference is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got to play most of the season. We’ve known that he’s capable of being an All-Star but he blew past that benchmark with the year he just had. The Thunder are now relevant again and on the cusp of getting back to the playoffs thanks to him. Many were surprised to see that the Thunder did not shut things down for the better Victor Wembanyama odds, but the taste of the play-in tournament will do wonders for this young group.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Thunder.
State of the roster
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The Thunder have spent the past three seasons accumulating draft picks and bottoming out to improve the quality of their own. The front office got a big head start in their rebuild in the 2019 and 2020 offseasons through their trades of Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Jeremy Grant, Steven Adamsand Dennis Schroder. From the George trade alone they now have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. In all, they have a surplus of eight additional first-round picks, giving them a total of 15 over the next seven drafts.
The Thunder will have several options to improve their roster this offseason. They could pursue help with their cap space or even make an uneven trade with it. They could package a number of their future picks in a deal and absorb a star player if that’s what they want to do. But they already have a major addition coming with the debut of Chet Holmgren. He could help raise the Thunder to an elite defense next season and solidify a playoff spot.
The upcoming draft could be the Thunder’s quietest one since 2020. After several drafts where they had multiple first and second-round picks, they are entering this one with just one first-round pick and two second-round picks. Their first-round pick has the 12th-best lottery odds while their second-rounders are slotted at 38 and 49. While they don’t have too many picks to play with, they could still be active in trades to help them move up in the draft. Such deals could include expendable players on the roster to help with their roster crunch.
Cap space and draft
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Oklahoma City is entering the offseason with a full 15-man roster and nearly $30 million in cap space. They have four players on non-guaranteed deals, including Isaiah Joe, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Aaron Wigginsand Lindy Waters III. The Thunder could get up to $36 million in room if they waive all four players, but that seems unlikely. Maybe one or two of those players get waived before the start of the regular season to accommodate any potential roster crunch that could come.
The Thunder could look to utilize their cap space this offseason for veteran help for their playoff push next season. They don’t necessarily need to go after this summer’s top free agents and they may not be interested in that since it would take away minutes from their young core. If they want to spend big money on a good player, it could make sense to throw a big offer sheet at a top restricted free agent who fits their timeline, like Cameron Johnson, PJ Washingtonor Grant Williams.
There’s also a good chance the Thunder take a more conservative approach with their cap room and only pursue role players who could contribute in limited minutes. This could include re-signing Dario Saric and adding players at his level on short-term deals. This would allow them to roll over their cap space into the 2024 offseason, giving them another opportunity to pursue free agents.
How the new CBA affects them
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There are several changes coming to the new CBA and the Thunder will be well-equipped for them. They have shown a willingness to spend having gone deep into the luxury tax between 2015-16 and 2018-19. If the team ever becomes a title contender and becomes expensive, they could become a second apron team. They would then be restricted from increasing payroll other than re-signing players, signing draft picks, and minimum players.
Their extra first-round picks may seem excessive but they’ve become more valuable thanks to the implementation of the second apron. The Thunder would then have a better chance at extending their window as a second apron team since they have plenty of draft picks to replenish their depth with. This gives them more opportunities to draft role players, or trade opportunities to convert them into veterans.
Extension for Poku?
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Alexey Pokusevsky is the one young player on the Thunder whose contract is almost up and will need a decision made soon. He made strides this season getting consistent playing time at both forward slots and center before he suffered a fractured leg that eliminated him from 48 games this season. He improved his shooting and made strides as a passer and defender.
Despite Pokusevski’s improvements and the promise he showed early on, the time away from the court may have hurt him in upcoming extension negotiations. He is extension-eligible this offseason up until the day before the regular season for a rookie-scale extension. It’s tricky to identify a player type at his caliber to sort a potential contractual comparison. If the Thunder want to roll over their cap space into next summer, they could hold off on an extension unless it’s team-friendly.
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Aaron Wiggins are the other two Thunder players who are extension-eligible. They could sign veteran extensions throughout the 2023-24 season which can add up to four additional years. Oklahoma City could also hold off on extending them this offseason to roll over their cap space since they both have an additional year left on their contracts.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 15
Guaranteed salaries: $96.3 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $7.7 million
Total salary: $104 million
Luxury tax space: $58 million
Apron space: $64.5 million
Second apron space: $74.5 million
Spending power:
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Cap space: $30-37 million
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Room mid-level exception: $7.6 million
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Four trade exceptions ($4.2 million, $3.5 million, $943,800, and $781,759) that would be waived for cap space
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
2023-24 salary: $33,386,850
Remaining salary guaranteed: $148,386,000 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
Luguentz Dort
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $15,277,778
Remaining salary guaranteed: $49,500,000 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
Chet Holmgren
(Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
2023-24 salary: $10,386,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $34,998,008 through 2025-26
Josh Giddey
Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $6,587,040
Remaining salary guaranteed: $14,939,407 through 2024-25
Kenrich Williams
(AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)
2023-24 salary: $6,175,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $27,170,000 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
Alexey Pokusevsky
2023-24 salary: $5,009,633
Remaining salary guaranteed: $5,009,633
Additional notes:
Ousmane Dieng
2023-24 salary: $4,798,440
Remaining salary guaranteed: $16,496,362 through 2025-26
Jalen Williams
Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $4,558,680
Remaining salary guaranteed: $15,915,437 through 2025-26
Tre Mann
2023-24 salary: $3,191,400
Remaining salary guaranteed: $8,099,773 through 2024-25
Jaylin Williams
2023-24 salary: $2,000,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $2,000,000
Additional notes:
Isaiah Joe
2023-24 salary: $1,997,238
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
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2023-24 salary is non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date
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2024-25 salary is a non-guaranteed team option. Fully guaranteed if not waived by the league-wide cutdown date
Lindy Waters III
2023-24 salary: $1,927,896 (team option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
2023-24 salary: $1,900,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
Aaron Wiggins
2023-24 salary: $1,836,096
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
Dario Saric
Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $17,556,000
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes
Jared Butler
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Olivier Sarr
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
2023 Pick No. 11
2023-24 salary: $4,952,160
Remaining salary guaranteed: $22.8 million through 2026-27
Additional notes: HoopsHype and ForTheWin’s draft expert Bryan Kalbrosky has Taylor Hendricks being selected with the 11th overall selection in his most recent mock draft.
You can follow Yossi Gozlan (@YossiGozlan) on Twitter.
Story originally appeared on HoopsHype